Posted on 10/03/2016 8:13:13 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Is Minnesota now a toss-up state?
That’s the verdict from election-tracker site Real Clear Politics this week, which moved Minnesota out of the “Leans Clinton” category in its analysis of the presidential race between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump.
If Minnesota is a toss-up, though, the campaigns aren’t acting like it.
Trump made campaign stops in neighboring Iowa and Wisconsin on Wednesday, but he skipped Minnesota.
Clinton also appeared in Iowa on Thursday but skipped Minnesota — though her campaign did dispatch Anne Holton, wife of vice presidential nominee Tim Kaine, to an early voting event Thursday at St. Paul’s World of Beer. And Bernie Sanders, who challenged her in the Democratic primary, will campaign for her in Minnesota later this week.
Minnesota has voted Democratic in 10 straight presidential elections.
Polls indicate Trump is likely to win Iowa, where he has a 5 percentage-point lead in the Real Clear Politics average of presidential race surveys. Wisconsin is a state he hopes to make competitive, even though Hillary Clinton has a 5-point Real Clear Politics advantage there.
But that same poll-averaging service shows an even closer race in Minnesota, with Clinton up by just 4.3 points. That figure is based on a Star Tribune poll that had Clinton leading 44-38 percent Sept. 12-14, a KSTP/SurveyUSA poll that had her up 46-39 percent Sept. 16-20 and a Gravis Marketing survey last week that showed Clinton and Trump tied, 43-43.
Why isn’t Clinton doing better in a state Democrats usually win handily? Sasha Issenberg and Steven Yaccino of Bloomberg Politics identify one possible culprit: diehard Sanders supporters who haven’t followed their candidate over to the Clinton camp.
Sanders beat Clinton in Minnesota by more than 20 points in the March 1 primary, and undecided voters here are disproportionately young and white — a demographic Sanders dominated. Money in, money out
U.S. Rep. Erik Paulsen had a good news, bad news situation this week with regard to the torrent of outside spending the Republican congressman is facing in Minnesota’s 3rd Congressional District.
The Democratic-leaning House Majority PAC had reserved $600,000 in airtime for the 3rd District — but this week canceled all of that in what a gloating Paulsen campaign called “a huge retreat” for Democrats.
But another Democratic group, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, amped up its 3rd District spending this week with a $367,000 buy against Paulsen.
Paulsen is facing Democrat Terri Bonoff in the November election. His seat is a top Democratic target as they make a long-shot bit to take over the House of Representatives, but polls and fundraising had shown Paulsen in a solid position. The Cook Political Report ranks the race as “Lean Republican.”
Minnesota’s three competitive House races have seen more outside spending than all but one other state. The 8th District battle between Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan and Republican Stewart Mills has received the largest amount.
This election is about motivation, intensity and the resulting turnout. Trump represents change and change creates enthusiasm. Trump resonates with a pissed off populace.
Voting for Hillary is about voting for more of the same from the entrenched establishment.
Minnesota is in play because the Democrats are tired of the same old BS and won’t turn out. The Trumpsters can’t wait to vote.
There is no enthusiasm for Hillary in NoVA.
There will not be another historic black turnout in Richmond & Norfolk/Newport News regions. It will not be at 2008 & 2012 levels it will be closer to the usual historic turn out. BLM crap might elevate it a little but not a lot. So it comes down to what blue collar & rural voters do. They have been forgotten and denigrated by the economic policies of both parties so that many of them don’t vote any more. If Trump energizes them to turn out in a big way it will overwhelm NoVA.
Some good polls to report,
A poll in MN-8 from Survey USA, Republican Stewart Mills AHEAD 45-41%. This is the iron-range seat, lost be the Republicans in the GOP landslide of 1946, regained in 2010, lost in 2012 and Mills narrowly failed to get it back last time. Trending GOP, blue collar, the kind of district you’d expect Trump to do well in. This would be a sweet, sweet gain.
And I believe these are Republican polls from Remington Research but hopefully they are on the money.
They have Trump up 4 in OH, FL TIED! Trump up 3 in NV, Clinton only up 3 in PA. These are encouraging.
A Trump victory in Minnesota would be such a triumph. Even The Gipper didn’t quite achieve that.
He could’ve, but he didn’t want to thoroughly humiliate Fritz Mondale. As it was, Reagan did carry 5 out of the 8 CDs in MN in 1984, so that’s a “victory” in its own right.
Woah there slugger. That may be what this out of date thread I decided to post in is about but that’s not what I’m talking about here, latest poll has bitch up 8 in MN.
But I reported on Mills being ahead, and good polls for Trump in FL/OH/NV/PA.
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