Posted on 10/03/2016 8:13:13 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Is Minnesota now a toss-up state?
That’s the verdict from election-tracker site Real Clear Politics this week, which moved Minnesota out of the “Leans Clinton” category in its analysis of the presidential race between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump.
If Minnesota is a toss-up, though, the campaigns aren’t acting like it.
Trump made campaign stops in neighboring Iowa and Wisconsin on Wednesday, but he skipped Minnesota.
Clinton also appeared in Iowa on Thursday but skipped Minnesota — though her campaign did dispatch Anne Holton, wife of vice presidential nominee Tim Kaine, to an early voting event Thursday at St. Paul’s World of Beer. And Bernie Sanders, who challenged her in the Democratic primary, will campaign for her in Minnesota later this week.
Minnesota has voted Democratic in 10 straight presidential elections.
Polls indicate Trump is likely to win Iowa, where he has a 5 percentage-point lead in the Real Clear Politics average of presidential race surveys. Wisconsin is a state he hopes to make competitive, even though Hillary Clinton has a 5-point Real Clear Politics advantage there.
But that same poll-averaging service shows an even closer race in Minnesota, with Clinton up by just 4.3 points. That figure is based on a Star Tribune poll that had Clinton leading 44-38 percent Sept. 12-14, a KSTP/SurveyUSA poll that had her up 46-39 percent Sept. 16-20 and a Gravis Marketing survey last week that showed Clinton and Trump tied, 43-43.
Why isn’t Clinton doing better in a state Democrats usually win handily? Sasha Issenberg and Steven Yaccino of Bloomberg Politics identify one possible culprit: diehard Sanders supporters who haven’t followed their candidate over to the Clinton camp.
Sanders beat Clinton in Minnesota by more than 20 points in the March 1 primary, and undecided voters here are disproportionately young and white — a demographic Sanders dominated. Money in, money out
U.S. Rep. Erik Paulsen had a good news, bad news situation this week with regard to the torrent of outside spending the Republican congressman is facing in Minnesota’s 3rd Congressional District.
The Democratic-leaning House Majority PAC had reserved $600,000 in airtime for the 3rd District — but this week canceled all of that in what a gloating Paulsen campaign called “a huge retreat” for Democrats.
But another Democratic group, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, amped up its 3rd District spending this week with a $367,000 buy against Paulsen.
Paulsen is facing Democrat Terri Bonoff in the November election. His seat is a top Democratic target as they make a long-shot bit to take over the House of Representatives, but polls and fundraising had shown Paulsen in a solid position. The Cook Political Report ranks the race as “Lean Republican.”
Minnesota’s three competitive House races have seen more outside spending than all but one other state. The 8th District battle between Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan and Republican Stewart Mills has received the largest amount.
RI is often the most democratic state in the nation. It is not going Trump. Trump needs to focus on FL, NC, PA, OH and perhaps MI and that’s it. That is what he needs. No need to over reach especially since he has a lot less money than Hillary. They have softened up Trump since May with negative ads and I don’t hear a whole lot about Hillary’s baggage at all. He needs to get his message out, so let’s hope he can do that this week.
I dont believe Minnesota is a toss up but if true this election is over
“If all the polls are wrong as some say on this site, then this poll must be wrong and the race probably is not that close in MN.”
Actually, all the polls are wrong, wrong at least at this point in the cycle and undoubtably will not be precise leading up to Election Day.
Fo now, it may be best to ignore any polling trends that you might interpret as being trending against Trump and instead focus on all the polls that show Trump with the lead.
Me too ..to good to be true! Like the carrot hanging by a stick in front of us!! It ain’t gonna happen!
Keep in mind that Clinton lost a 20 point lead in the Michigan primary literally overnight. It’s been well established that much of her apparent support does not show up at the polls, except where electronic voting machines with low security are available.
Believe me I Know Hillary has ZERO innate support, and zero enthusiasm... but MN and IL are states that even the worst D should be able to hold.. .if it turns out she can’t hold MN, she sure as heck will be losing other states no one wants to admit to.
Personally I think Trump has PA, OH, MI,Wi IN and IA... basically the only rust belt states left are MN and IL.. .if Hillary loses MN, she’s going to lose a lot of other states no one is willing to consider... and won’t likely have 10 states on election day.
RIght now I think VA is her best shot at a “southern” state hold.. she won’t get FL or NC... they are already lost even though her campaign wont admit it. ANd VA is only a likely hold because NOVA has a pocketbook reason to turn out for her, not because they love or support her, but as most have their incomes tied to the status quo there, they are personally motivated to vote just for self preservation... If Hillary can’t hold VA, again, she’s going to lose a lot more states no one wants to talk about, because that’s the state with the most personal reason for folks to show up to vote for her... and if she can’t get them to the polls there, they aren’t going to show up a lot of other places.
But even among ELCA faction, there are thousands of members who don't buy the poison their leadership is pushing, but cannot bring themselves to abandon the church they grew up in, their circle of friends, the hot dish lunches after church, etc. Outside of the Mormons in the Rocky Mountain states, I have never seen any church sect so cohesive as Lutherans in the upper Midwest.
I was at a my wife’s church party in the suburbs of Minneapolis. The topic of the election came up around the dining table. One out of 3 there, said that they would not be voting, or writing in someone. I brought up the open supreme court position. One on the elders said, “we Christians should start preparing for persecution”.
I cant believe people can be so dogmatic.
I believe MN is in play—the Midwest has been crushed by the trade treaties shipping jobs overseas—and the Sanders supporters are not going to vote Hillary in large numbers.
I think IL will be her only state in the Midwest.
“Trump needs to focus on FL, NC, PA, OH and perhaps MI and that’s it.”
Actually, the combo of CO, NV, and especially IA look like more likely wins for him than PA or MI and would make up for losing either of those states in putting him over the top (so long as he keeps Romney’s states and wins FL and OH).
And those liberal Minnesota Lutherans are helping to populate the state with refugees from Somalia who are so frightened to be in their homeland that they need to go back there at taxpayer expense to vacation and see their families and friends... unfrickingbelievable. Stop the Refugee Resettlement NOW!
Just to make sure I was clear, in my last post I meant “both” of those states, not “either.” If he wins CO, NV, and IA then he doesn’t need PA, MI, or any other additional state beyond the ones I mentioned.
Actually you are kind of wrong.
Your average Minnesotan has never even had a conversation with a Conservative.
Oh and YES, a Ted Cruz Conservative will not play well in much of the midwest.
He was Exactly their stereotype image of a conservative.
I lived in MN for over 30 years.
Reagan was very popular here until the Bush Family/GOP destroyed the image of Conservatives.
I have been on this web site for a long time. I am always amazed at people who live in a fantasy land. Every four years, the rallying cry is that the polls are all wrong, but they never are. Four years ago, Obama was ahead in the final polls by 1 or 2 points in all polls but two. Obama won by 4 points. I could go on and on.
There are tons of predictions of landslides on this website. Where does this fantasy come from? Wishful thinking means well, but is misguided. As much as Obama was praised, lauded and promoted by the media, he never won in a landslide, so why would Trump who is being trashed daily with hardly a response that resonates?
When I read posts that have RI going for Trump, I wonder how naïve people are? RI is often the most heavily democratic state in the nation. RI turned republican in 1972 and 1984, two massive landslides. There is nothing developing like that in 2016. For one, Trump is very unpopular (as is Hillary), but Trump is seen as unqualified to be president by a majority of the voters and by an even greater amount of democrats.
If Trump wants to be president, the first thing he needs to do is convince the people he is qualified. The first debate was a job interview. After the debate the percentage of voters who thought he was unqualified to be president actually increased as well as his unpopularity percentage. Hillary went in the opposite direction.
I live in reality.
His message is not getting out for various reasons and he will need to rely on ads to get his message out. I think it appears he is not able to use the debates as a way of getting his message out. They don't work for him. He is going to have to go negative (bigly) and often if he is going to win.
The fact that he is still competitive after being trashed on a daily basis is remarkable.
I seem to recall the last time he was in Colorado that he said he was planning on spending a lot of money there. I think it’s time for that to start. It’s a good sign that he’s going to be giving speeches in CO twice today and once in NV on Wed. He’s only been in NV one other time since the end of the primaries, which I find suprising since he’s been up in some of the NV polls since June. I’m not sure why they haven’t worked harder for that state, but I did read somewhere that he does have an actual ground game there.
Monmouth just came out with a hit job poll (like usual) showing Hillary up double digits in CO, but without that one poll Trump would be winning it in the RCP poll averages. RCP shows Trump and Clinton tied in NV at the moment. I personally think that he will likely pull off a victory in NV and possibly in CO (unless God forbid Hillary is trending with the momentum on election day), so I really want him to go big for those states.
The debate hurt Trump. It was a job interview and his unfavorables increased as well as the percentage who believes he is unqualified. If he wants to win, he has to practice and be coherent. He has said he is not going to practice. He is not listening to his advisers. Now its taxes and others coming forward from his show hitting him. There is nothing illegal with the taxes and he needs to counteract these new accusations. How? I don’t know. He needs to speak to these directly and don’t go back to it and move on.
Interesting reasoning about liberal voters in northern VA
In Feb, 2016, DNC VA paid United Health Care $454.18 each for monthly health insurance premiums for 12 people. Two people paid for a family/spouse version, too.
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