Posted on 09/18/2016 11:30:05 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Republican Donald J. Trump has the support of 20 percent of the African-American vote in Sunday’s “Daybreak Poll” by the University of Southern California and The Los Angeles Times.
Trump’s Democratic opponent Hillary R. Clinton is the choice of 71 percent of black voters.
For the week after Trump’s Aug. 16 speech on the status of African-Americans in America in West Bend, Wisconsin, the Republican had support in the Daybreak Poll between 13 percent and 15 percent....
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
No, I didn’t... but I have mentioned it many times before... The reverse bradley folks are easily 2-4% more than Trump has been polling, but as it becomes obvious Trump is going to win, they will start to show up because they will be more willing to admit it... The “disenfranchised” that Trump will attract, but that most polls filter out because they consider someone who hasn’t voted in recent cycles to be unlikely to do it this time... That’s easily another 1-2% as well.
I have stated this many times and in many places... I believe Trump has been 3-5% above his poll numbers this entire cycle... Latest polls showed R voters coming home and his support getting up to traditional levels... that’s was always going to happen and it was when you saw him start to tie it up/slightly lead... The events over last weekend, Deplorables and the fall moved many D leaning I’s and moderate D’s (deplorable comment in particular) away from her and either to Trump or third party/stay home.
The collapse and lies around it, certainly will have an impact as well.. with both those events last weekend I am not surprised to see polling showing Trump up to mid 40s and clinton below 40.
This race was always going to break wide open and Trump was on target to take the lead this month either way.. those events just moved the break away up a few weeks.
Last stop is the debates, Trump gets through them looking reasonable, and the nail is in the coffin... Trump can spend October using his coattails to try to get as many more R’s in both houses as he can.
I agree with your analysis. I’m just wondering if the never voters/rarely voters might be more than 1-2%.
To me it feels like destiny of some sort. An unstoppable force of nature.
What’s more exciting, watching Trump Force One circle and land or watching Hillary’s Flying Hospital coming in for a landing?
Seeing Trump’s Plane pull up to one of those Hanger Rallies gets your Patriotic blood pumping, at least it does mine.
Heck, watching Hillary on her Plane talking about the NYC Bombing was just depressing. The interior of that Plane looked just plain old and creepy, just like the Candidate.
Probably my bias showing, but the Optics just weren’t there.
Trump will end up with between 25-30% of the African-American vote. Trump will end up with 40-45% of the Hispanic/Latino vote. Trump will end up with 40-45% of the women’s vote. A massive landslide POTUS victory for Donald J. Trump is building as I write this!!!
Hillary Clinton will win eight to ten states if she is extremely lucky. My voting model at this moment shows her winning only California for sure!!! Worst candidate the Democrats could put forward!!! A complete failure....and that Tim Kaine for VP is the biggest joke ever!!! Her surrogate campaigners are totall failures....too!!!
Go Donald J. Trump!!! Hey.....DJT, New York & New Jersey, are there for the taking!!! America will soon be the great nation, for “ALL” Americans, once again...support & vote for Donald J. Trump!!!
Well, I have said almost from the get go, Hillary can get no more than low 40s at best, and if everything went PERFECT for her, she could get no more than about 15 states and 180 EC votes.. and that the more likely scenario is about 10 states and around 100-120 EC votes.
I don’t see her only getting one state ala 1984, even in the most optimistic outlook for Trump, but I can see scenario where Hillary does wind up, at least with states carried, if not at the EC level something like 1980. Where she does wind up under 10 total states carried.
I do believe NJ is almost certainly going Trump, NY may as well, but I’m not there yet... Not saying Trump can’t take it, but I have expected Trump to be doing better there all along, Hillary is a carpet bagger, and Trump is a native son. I will be eyeing next round of polls there closely... and see just how big a shift they show.
Again, any state that Hillary isn’t up by 5 she won’t win... and any state she is up between 5 and 10 are in play... I do expect Trump’s numbers to start a tangential upward move... My original belief was Trump would overtake Hillary right before the debate and you would start to see the break away momentum and post debate, presuming Trump comes out of it looking reasonable, you will see that knee and tangential flood gate open...
Due to her deplorable comments and the collapse the point where Trump is overtaking her has moved up a week or two, and we may indeed see some strong pull away before the debate even happens.. but the debate is the nail in the coffin... Trump comes out looking reasonable... he blows it wide open and its over... Dems will spend Oct just desperately trying to hold places they never ever thought would be in play.
I have believed it from day one, HIllary’s most likely outcome was about 10 states and 100-120ish EC votes... her best case was 15 with 180ish, and she is so far off best case, that’s not even worth discussing, at this poing 10 and 120ish is likely her BEST CASE scenario going forward.... sub 10 ala a 1980 type outcome is very likely... But only 1 state? Well if she drops during the debate maybe, but otherwise I just don’t see it going that crazy... not that I would mind... but I just don’t think it will be that bad... She’ll certainly hold Cali, WA and HI, IL and MN ... IL is one I would say might not be guaranteed but only because Rahm has made such a fustercluck of Chicago etc that you could indeed get a repressed turnout in chicago... not merely because Hillary has no real support, but because Rahm has alienated a lot of folks as well... SO that would be my possible surprise... not saying it will flip, but if there was a solid blue state that if it flipped wouldn’t shock me, IL with its local political issues compounding Hillary’s could wind up voter turnout in Chicago is down to a point where it doesn’t overwhelm the rest of the state... I also don’t see MD flipping either... even if Trump gets VA, I really don’t see MD flipping... Those I think are the states where she will almost certainly carry no matter what... probably a few smaller NE states that won’t flip even in a blowout as well... but honestly I really don’t see her pulling more than 10is and 120is EC votes total... and she could indeed underperform that... but I don’t see it down to her just getting one state.... Even if she loses the popular vote by 10 points or more, she’ll still carry morre than 1 state
And Obama is whining that if AAs don’t go to the polls at the same level as he got that it is a rejection of his legacy.
But think about it. If Trump can take NJ and New York it is over for Hillary before dinner. Because if he can do that well in those two, VA, PA, Florida, Ohio will go Trump in quick succession. She won’t be able to recover in the hours that follow.
Consider this. The Rats brag about their famous “ground game”. That game requires SHOE LEATHER. Did you see the report from Ohio? The big door to door push? NO ONE SHOWED UP. Tha Rat ground game don’t work without motivated soldiers to muster. The Rat elite have been smugly sitting back thinking the events of Sept., Oct. don’t matter because of the “magic” they can pull on election night. It may be starting to sink in the magic ain’t there this year. Now bombs going off all over NY and NJ. Watch the panic this week. MIT is gonna be PRICELESS.
He’s above the gray area. Hillary is below it.
As someone said earlier...is Pence in it for 16 years
Two Serious Dudes for Serious Times.
They changed the way they calculated the grey area
Happiness is crushing the enemy and hearing the ululations of their girlymen.
Election night will be early but no way it will be 1 state. To get to one state for Hillary, Trump would need to be up around 15 or more points and while I do expect a big win don’t expect it to be that big.
Reagan was up almost 20 when he got the 49 state win. Even if race is called early I still don’t see her with only 1 state. She’ll get A few in NE, MN and Il as well. They won’t call the election before polls close east coast around 8. That’s 5pm west coast. So it’s not like nobody is going to vote if it’s obvious at 8 she’s lost. Could it cost her somerhing west if it’s obvious the vote is pointless? Maybe. But there are other positions on the ballot don’t see huge drop off of all Hillary voters if it’s called by 10. Which is the latest it will take in my estimation to know she’s toast.
If I remember correctly, blacks made up 13 percent of the vote total in 2008 and 20012.
Prior to that, they usually made up about 10 percent.
If they drop back down to 10 percent, without 0bama on the ticket,
and Trump gets 15 percent or more of their reduced total number of votes,
that would leave Clinton with far fewer black votes than what 0bama received.
They made a deal (the MSM pukes) not to call an election before the polls close in CA. Years ago, due to Carter’s embarrassment. But it will be obvious. If NY and Florida get called for Trump when the polls close there it is over. Again, not just because of those but if those go it will mean the rest are going. She will get California, obviously, probably IL (although even that is not certain), Minnesota, Vermont, Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, Conn, RI, Washington, Oregon. How many EV is that?
They could be, but I. Am using 1-2% as the least (low end). Because we know they are out there but have nothing imperical to base it on. With the Bradley effect we have a few polls showing high teens of R voters and 10% of D voters it’s pretty safe to extrapolate Trump will get most of the R and may get the majority of the D. So can safely say 2-4 perhaps even 3-5 %
With the disenfranchised it gets harder to quantify because nothing to base it on. Assuming 130-140 million vote 1-2% is 1.3 to nearly 3 million votes. Could it be higher? Yes but no real way to base it.
I do believe Hillary can’t produce 60M votes come Election Day
They could be, but I. Am using 1-2% as the least (low end). Because we know they are out there but have nothing imperical to base it on. With the Bradley effect we have a few polls showing high teens of R voters and 10% of D voters it’s pretty safe to extrapolate Trump will get most of the R and may get the majority of the D. So can safely say 2-4 perhaps even 3-5 %
With the disenfranchised it gets harder to quantify because nothing to base it on. Assuming 130-140 million vote 1-2% is 1.3 to nearly 3 million votes. Could it be higher? Yes but no real way to base it.
I do believe Hillary can’t produce 60M votes come Election Day
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