Posted on 06/15/2016 11:36:13 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
In the most pivotal counties in seven critical swing states, Donald Trump has a decided edge, according to a recent set of polling data collected by Axiom Strategies, the firm of Ted Cruz's former campaign manager Jeff Roe.
Axiom identified seven counties in seven battleground states that have proven to be bellwethers in the last four elections. Trump, so far, has an edge in four of them, Hillary Clinton has an edge in two, and they're statistically tied in one. The selected counties correctly predicted the statewide result in each of the last four elections and came closest to the actual statewide margin of victory.
The counties where Trump is ahead include Watauga County, North Carolina (+4), Sandusky County, Ohio (+5), Luzerne County, Pennsylvania (+17) and Washoe County, Nevada (+12).
Clinton, on the other hand, holds modest leads in Jefferson County, Colorado (+4) and Loudoun County, Virginia (+8).
The two are statistically tied in Tampa's Hillsborough County, Florida.
Several caveats apply to this polling — including the fact that the general election is barely underway, so voter attitudes are far from settled. The poll was conducted using a combination of 20 percent live calls and 80 percent automated calls, a weighting that tilts toward a methodology that hasn't been totally reliable. Each poll, all of which were in the field from June 3 to June 5, also relied on sample sizes that varied widely, from 653 likely votes in North Carolina to nearly 1,700 in difficult-to-poll Nevada.
But national polls put Hitlery way up.
Trump is going to beat Clinton like a drum.
Trump is going to be camped in Tampa the next five months. Guaranteed.
PING!!!
She had a good week. She had an increase due to becoming nominated. Trump did to when he became the nominee. Give it a month and if she’s still ahead I’ll worry.
Yes, I thoroughly expected a temporary surge for Hillary once she locked up the nomination, it won’t last.
A little more tougher to mislead without outright lying when pollsters drill down to state polls or counties.
Trump could indeed win a great victory. But he is poised to throw it away by endorsing this insane “No-Fly No-Buy” (really, No 2nd Amendment Rights) List.
I’m worried, because he should be beating her with all of her baggage. The Republicans have only won the popular vote once in the past five elections. I’m glad he’s the nominee, but we can’t also deal with Paul Ryan and the GOP bashing him.
Next week’s polls will have Trump up or closer... the press will be very quiet about those polls ..
Brace yourselves, Trump is going to get slaughtered in November.
Polls that skew it up to 52% for Dem do. That is approaching 20% over Dem party ID demographics.
I’d bet dollars to doughnuts that it was the NRA who called for the meeting with the intent of getting out in front of the noise. I expect nothing to change.
Pearl clutchers worrying over misleading polls with 5 1/2 months out.
Conflicting pols. They are very worrisome. We may need Putin to take out Hillary. The FBI has taken a pass and now looks hopeless.
LOL - Red, when you use the term “pearl clutchers” I think Lindsey Graham - don’t know why - - but it’s always good for a laugh.
I’m worried, because he should be beating her with all of her baggage.
__________________________
The question is to ask yourself every day what you can do to help Trump. People who worry are a dime a dozen and not too useful.
What can you do to help Trump instead of worrying?
I am on Twitter.
“But national polls put Hitlery way up.”
I remember when President Reagan was running against Carter in 1980, and the wonderful lame MSM had Carter beating President Reagan by doubt digits and my husband was just about at his wits end and I was really fearful that he would maybe have a stroke. Come to find out, the MSM was just ginning up the figures to help Carter because we all know what a landslide President Reagan had in beating Carter. I really believe the same thing is in play now. I hope that time proves me right.
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