Posted on 04/22/2016 2:32:50 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The math is certain, it's time to move on to fighting Hillary.
The current real numbers are just fine, Trump was expected to win New York, optimistic news I had received not with standing. Yes Trump got 90 delegates. Yes he did well. Yes Kasich got 5 delegates, his first in how long? Yes yes and yes. And No I am not even bothered.
Real Numbers: Cruz 696 Delegates to Trumps 815 Delegates.
Whats left now?
California 172 Indiana 57 New Jersey 51 Washington 44 Maryland 38 Nebraska 36 West Virginia 34 South Dakota 29 Connecticut 28 Oregon 28 Montana 27 New Mexico 24 Rhode Island 19 Pennsylvania 17 +54
Trump needs to get 422 delegates, out of that list.
He loses Montana in full, the 54 in Pennsylvania are gone, Oregon is a wipe for him (he gets 3-6), Washington is already soured to him (maybe 4-6 there), Indiana is looking like Ted Cruz, S. Dakota is Ted Cruz, no one will give Nebraska to Trump, New Mexico is unlikely Trump… These “losses” (we will leave the gains in play) add up to 283 of 658, leaving 337 delegates left for Trump to try to win. Look he ain’t taking all of California either, even if he gets 120 out of there he loses 52 more, which means he comes up short by 137 missing delegates.
Yes you read that correct, even if we tilt California for Trump he cannot win, he misses by 137 delegates. Even if he wins three small States, or Indiana and a medium State, he comes up missing by far too much.
Mathematically Trump has been out for a while, it is a Contested Convention.
In fact it is worse than that for Donald Trump because he messed up in West Virginia and automatically loses 3 delegates minimum there, he started his campaign office in California so late that a number of us pundits think he cannot get delegates for all the Congressional Districts there, and Rhode Island is a proportional election.
Trump cannot get enough delegates from the remaining States even if he picks up 2 major surprise wins.
Ted Cruz has seen an additional bunch of Delegates arrive with his securing S. Carolina for sure (while not fully voted yet you can take this to the bank), Nebraska voted their delegates for Cruz, and Indiana is a done deal according to Party Insiders. Those 54 in Pennsylvania are rumored to be in contention, but not for Trump. Apparently Kasich is making a big play there. However it still hurts Trump significantly, leaving him no way to continue on. One of the most surprising developments was Florida and New Jersey. Rubio had his team walk over everyone in Florida, those 99 delegates are his. In New Jersey Christie is actually strong-arming the leadership in a potentially illegal manner, and is securing almost all of the slates there. Yes you read those right, they secured their home States and not for Trump.
However I reiterate, Trump has already lost the challenge to get to 1237 delegates. There is NO CHANCE OF A TRUMP NOMINATION.
Current Pledged Delegates for Cruz is estimated by me to be at 865 delegates.
Where does Ted Cruz secure the remaining delegates? He needs 372 to win the convention on 2nd or 3rd ticket (vote): Oregon 28 Oklahoma 43 California (projected) 100 South Dakota 29 Pennsylvania (Possible Kasich) 54 Arkansas 40 Kansas 40 Kentucky 46 Montana 27
The list goes on. We have only really gotten a bit over half way in the actual positions. Ted Cruz is the champion here, no other is coming close currently. There is well in excess of 450 delegates I deem “likely” to “Guaranteed” for Ted Cruz. Due to the machinations of Kasich, Rubio, and Christie the establishment has secured 235 delegates already.
This means when Ted Cruz gets 137 more delegates to pledge to him that Trump is mathematically out there as well without offering one of them (Not Rubio) the Vice Presidency, and he is 222 delegates being pledged for Ted Cruz to be guaranteed mathematically eliminated in a contested convention.
The odds of Trump getting the nomination is now under 1% in my view.
Yes that statement is correct. Trump cannot turn the tide in enough States, his efforts in New Mexico are also showing lagging (he had to strong arm them to extend the time he needs to search for people to be potential delegates) and he cannot win so many pledges in an obvious hostile venue in the remaining time. Trump is done.
So, here I am, the first of the major and minor Statisticians, I am calling the election formally for Ted Cruz. Yes this is my formal announcement. I was going to wait until April 27th, but the nature of the States has been provided to me by various sources, and I am confident that even with two major upsets that Trump is not going to win.
Congratulations Ted Cruz for winning the Republican Nomination for President.
A lot of those have already been reapportioned because he suspended his campaign. You missed that?
This guy forgot all about the state of Delaware- and his numbers are off and the grammar is horrific. Sloppy/unprofessional piece of hack journalism.
I once got in a dispute with this poster and his only comeback was how many post he makes. Like posting a lot of garbage somehow makes it or him relevant.
If anyone knows 2ndDivisionVet IRL, it’s time for an intervention.
I just can’t even. ;)
Trump started his pivot too soon
Raising taxes
Liberalizing the Abortion Plank
Queer Bathrooms For All
These are things he should be doing after he secures the nomination. What Republican is going to go out and vote for Queer Bathrooms For All?
One of Trump’s problems is that he listens to his toadies and yes-men, who are legion. They are telling Trump he is A Winning Winner Who Wins, and that the nomination is in the bag. Trump, who has, shall we say, a healthy level of self-esteem, believes every word. So he has shifted to the post-nomination, cut-the-Republicans-off-at-the-knees portion or the program.
Too soon, Trump. Too soon. It is not yet in the bag.
Heads are exploding!
That would be a family responsibility. If someone wishes to self destruct, it should be their right to do so. Free will and all that......
This putz is talking all about a second ballot in a contested convention. Those ‘extra’ pledged delegates are ones whose 1st ballot vote is committed to Trump or someone other than Cruz.
This crap is like when my daughter tells me something stupid, wants something from me and is expecting to get it and isn’t waiting around for me to say no. The jargon for that is “kthxbai.”
Very misleading and sophomoric.
here is the rebuttal to my statement that it has become dull
It's your head, and their your voices.
“their” = they’re.
Presidency of the bathroom, where he can spot check the genitalia of anyone going inside...
Seems to be his forte’
And what about raising taxes and going squishy on abortion?
I guess those don't matter much either.
What will be the next "too strong" Republican position to be abandoned?
When Trump reiterates his previous support for Touchback Amnesty, remember to deploy your Shocked Face.
Actually, now that those issues are out there, and the media and the democrats have lost those cards to play against the GOP, can we now focus less on the president of the USA’s bathroom policies and more on the economy, immigration and national security? You know, things the president actually has a role in?
Trump is giving several major policy briefings next week, let’s give the media something to really talk about
POTTIIIIEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSS -- !!!
This is a, “Red State”, state article. The author probably had an extra snifter of absinthe before he crunched the delegate numbers.
Why do you keep posting nonsense?
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