Posted on 03/29/2016 1:45:47 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
As he inches toward the GOP nomination, Donald Trump is becoming more and more disliked among American voters.
Donald Trump wasn't wildly popular to begin with. And now he's becoming even more disliked among American voters, creating a significant threat to his chances of winning the Republican presidential nomination.
Trump is, by far, the GOP delegate leader — and the only candidate with a realistic shot at winning a majority of delegates before the July convention. But at the same time, nearly two-thirds of Americans view Trump unfavorably — and his image rating has declined since Republican voting began in February.
The danger for Trump is two-fold: His declining popularity is taking a toll on his standing in the 17 states that will hold primaries between now and the end of the process in early June. Losing some of these states — or even winning fewer delegates in proportional states — makes it more difficult for Trump to secure a pre-convention majority of 1,237 delegates.
That’s where Trump’s horrific poll numbers could haunt him again: If Trump misses the threshold to win the nomination outright in bound delegates, it will be more difficult to persuade unbound delegates to put him over the top if they see him as a general election disaster-in-the-making due to his high unfavorability ratings among all voters.
How bad are Trump’s image ratings? The HuffPost Pollster average of recent national polls puts Trump’s favorability at only 31 percent, while 63 percent view him unfavorably.
That’s a notable decline from late January, on the eve of the first votes in the GOP nominating process, when Trump’s average favorability rating was 37 percent, with 57 percent viewing him unfavorably.
Trump is hardly alone: Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz are also viewed unfavorably by majorities of Americans, according to polling averages. Only John Kasich and Bernie Sanders — neither of whom has faced many negative attacks from either party — have positive image ratings.
Among Republicans, Trump’s numbers aren’t stellar, but they have been durable — even as the other GOP candidates have trained their fire on him. Polls earlier this month from CNN/ORC and Quinnipiac University show Trump’s overall favorability rating tanking, but the figures are virtually unchanged among Republicans: A little more than 60 percent view him favorably, and about a third have an unfavorable opinion of him.
But the remainder of Republican primaries — which resume next week in Wisconsin — will be held at the state level. And in a three-way race with Cruz and Kasich, the forces aiming to halt Trump’s march to the nomination will continue to chip away further at Trump’s image.
Some of the anti-Trump groups have chosen to target female Republicans, betting that Trump’s past — and some current — statements about women would alienate those voters. Data from the states that have already voted bear that out: Trump has run, on average, 7 points better among male voters than among female voters in the 17 states in which there have been entrance or exit polls.
One of the leading anti-Trump groups, Our Principles PAC, credits some of its attacks on Trump — including an ad featuring women reading some of Trump’s past quotes on women — with bringing those statements to the fore. And the group cited paid media and ground efforts to oppose Trump with hurting him in some of the states he’s lost, like Iowa.
Democratic pollster Celinda Lake said that even if those attacks don’t crush Trump in the primary, it could be difficult for him to hold female Republicans in a general election. “For women, Trump is like your worst date ever,” Lake said.
Club for Growth Action, another independent-expenditure group that has opposed Trump, has taken a more general approach, focusing mostly on Trump’s conservative apostasies on economic issues, though the group has also targeted Trump’s business record.
The Club ascribed Trump’s losses in states like Iowa and Oklahoma to its paid media efforts. (The group’s latest ad, in Wisconsin, specifically encourages anti-Trump voters there to get behind Cruz, whom the Club has endorsed, instead of Kasich.)
But attacking Trump doesn’t ensure defeat: Both the Club and Our Principles PAC spent heavily to attack Trump in states he went on to win, like Florida and Illinois.
Just as trying to sink Trump’s favorability doesn’t guarantee he’ll lose, nor do high favorable ratings equal votes: Some of the best-liked candidates this election cycle have faltered when voters have picked the people they want to represent their party in November.
“Oftentimes the candidate with the highest favorability doesn’t get the highest percentage of votes,” said Republican pollster Neil Newhouse. “Ben Carson had the highest favorability. They liked him — they just wouldn’t vote for him.”
Still, Trump’s poor image ratings make him the worst of the three Republicans in a general election, polls show. And some Republican pollsters say that creates the prospect of a bitter campaign, at least when targeted to different demographic groups. For example, Clinton could use negative advertising against Trump geared toward women. Trump could try to motivate Republicans and independents by reinforcing their lack of trust in Clinton. Clinton could strike back by painting Trump as an enemy of Latinos, who are growing as a share of the electorate, in Spanish-language advertising.
“Hispanic media would be the most rippingly negative campaign you’d ever see,” predicted Whit Ayers, who polled for Florida Sen. Marco Rubio’s now-suspended campaign. “It would basically be a campaign against Darth Vader in Hispanic media — with good reason.”
But there’s also evidence that Trump’s favorability rating could rebound if he wins the nomination and Republicans rally around their standard-bearer. According to Gallup, Mitt Romney’s image ratings skyrocketed among his base after the national convention.
“Should Trump be the nominee, a lot of Republicans who have a hard time believing they would actually vote for him — once he begins to take on Hillary the same way he’s taken on Marco [Rubio], or Ted Cruz, or Kasich or Jeb Bush — they may turn,” said Newhouse, Romney’s pollster in 2012. “The great unifier among Republicans is being against Hillary Clinton — and against Barack Obama. That may help remedy some of our problems.”
Maybe in your opinion.
Trump ALWAYS takes hits on Hillary and the left! He has called Bernie a COMMIE!
You beehive kickin bastard!!
(Because, some people just like to watch.)
The video, the audio and the bruises say he DID.
I understand your confusion. Trump supporters are used to slandering someone without evidence. In this case there is ample evidence, hence your confusion.
TAKE A POLL! LOL
Think it’s bad ow? Just wait to see what happens if he gets the nomination.
You Cruzites only see and hear what you WANT to, whether it's real or not!
If Trump falters one can point to raw Media power. I remember FDR and all races since the 1940’s and I have never seen such a media attack on a person as the attack on Trump. (I’m not saying Trump does or does not warrant such treatment.) I still think if Trump survives the assault and looks like he is going to win the nomination the elites will have him shot. There have been a number of media reports indirectly hinting at such action.
Love you too.
“So Trump stands up for a man that DIDNT DO A THING WRONG and you have a problem with that? You prefer the lefty media gets a fake scalp?”
Because the press has orders to play soft with Cruz (for now), his clueless supporters think that the press is their good buddies (since they are on the same team).
They cheer them on. The minute they get rid of Trump, in 21 days Cruz will be Bob Dole II.
And I’m not going to lose any sleep over it.
Just we were getting over that Zona surge Cruz had.
Pray America wakes
You’re full of crap - it shows no such thing.
Boy, that ain't what I'm seeing as I search news stories. Maybe you should fax them and let them know that's what they're supposed to do.
So far, Trump has received approximately 37% of the votes cast and has been awarded 48% of the delegates.
In order to get the nomination, Trump must win 53% of the remaining delegates. If Cruz were to get 53% of the remaining delegates he would not have enough to get the nomination but he would take the lead from Trump before the convention.
Cruz supporters argue that the only reason that Trump is in the lead at this point is because the 63% of voters who voted against Trump were split between multiple candidates. Trump supporters argue that the only reason Trump does not have a majority of the delegates at this point is because all of the votes were split among multiple candidates.
If Cruz supporters are correct, then Cruz will win Wisconsin and California and prevent Trump from getting the nomination before the convention. If Trump supporters are correct then Trump will win Wisconsin and California and should lock in the nomination before the convention.
We shall see.
“Boy, that ain’t what I’m seeing”
Oh you mean all of the news articles about how Cruz is a racist, xenophobe, going to start WW3, wants to bring back slavery, is a fascist, is a greater danger to the world than a U.S/China war, wants people to die in the streets, or construct death camps?
And that’s just the ones from Europe and Asia.
Yeah, I’m sure Cruz is getting hammered soooooooo hard.
Where is Heidi?
You’re slipping, 2ndDivVet. Did you forget about Politico, Jonathan Martin and his Nazi propaganda gang of liar “journolists?”
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2573077/posts
Michael Berry keeps playing this one note tune. Claiming Trump will melt down since he has ‘no experience’ in a political race compared to say the tiresomely egotistical Mr. Berry who was some sort of Harris County factotum.
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