[TigerClaws]

5000 votes and all this?

Gee whiz. He got 7 delegates to Cruz’s 8.

Move on.

But Trump’s platform of America first was always similar to Buchanan. History shows Buchanan was right. NAFTA destroyed millions of middle class jobs. Now we buy crap from China.

[erkelly]

Wait, didn’t Trump come in second, ending up with one less delegate than Cruz? How is that being taken out? And, I still can’t help but wonder if there were not some irregularities of some sort, given the polling data!

[Vermont Lt]

Trump has been around 24% since the start. You would think with all of noise, he would be much higher.

He will do okay in NH, but I am willing to bet Rubio and Kasich come in the top 3.

[MNJohnnie]

Consider Nates bunch got everything wrong yesterday, I would think they would want to step back from their habitual pomposity.

[toddausauras]

LAAAANDSLIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIDE….lol NOT. Take NH Donald!! Shut them all up. SC and NV.

[Moorings]

Hi 2DV! You were right about the Cruz ground game in IA. I know you caught some flak for suggesting that the polls were not a big deal and that the ground game that Cruz team built up was key.

[ObamahatesPACoal]

July 2015: “Trump’s support will probably fade”
Aug 2015: “Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News”
Aug 2015: “Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination”
Aug 2015: “Carson Surge May Test Trump”
Aug 2015: “Trump’s Six Stages Of Doom”
Sept 2015: Trump has only a 5% chance of winning the nomination
Nov 2015: “Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls”
Dec 2015: Trump’s odds of winning are “higher than zero”

Trump still has issues (ground game, not-so-great IA numbers, mediocre favorables) but party opposition was supposed to be ace-in-the-hole.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) January 20, 2016

In other words: He’s totally right, but if even if he’s wrong, it’s not his bad.

Update: The backtrack continues…

You have to revisit your assumptions…I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.

http://www.mofopolitics.com/2016/01/20/bwahahaha-nate-silver-walking-back-his-anti-trump-predictions/

[ifinnegan]

So cute.

[libbylu]

The fact that only 30% of state polls show DT in the lead without significant growth in months and high unfavorables, doesn’t phase that 25-30% of his hardcore supporters, never mind they blindly trust him with his progressive background and zero reasons to trust him, and they think he is a winner. They ignore facts, ridicule opponents and defend him.
I am so looking forward to NH.

[taildragger]

History will show Pat was Tea Party before it was cool. Long story, it happened in Michigan from someone ( I won't say who, I know him ) who egged him on to say "We don't need a 3rd Party we need a Tea Party" at a rallye.

He was so ahead of his time it isn't even freakin' funny. The country turned their back on him, Reagan & Goldwater, in 92' he stood alone on principle. I am not sure Trump has Pat's Epistemological core, or even knows what that means...

[jwalsh07]

Can not understand how he lost, he had huge rallies. Really huge.

[Yashcheritsiy]

Yeah...but what if Cruz’s dirty trick with Carson’s supporters netted him some votes he otherwise wouldn’t have gotten? He might not have ended up the winner after all.