Posted on 11/25/2015 8:48:15 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Though Donald Trump has been the front-runner in the GOP presidential race for months now, many political analysts still refuse to accept that he could be the party's nominee. They cope by latching on to other candidates who appear to be surging in the polls, and theorizing about how they could eventually topple the reality-show character holding the GOP hostage. After Scott Walker dropped out of the race, it was Marco Rubio's turn to be the savvy pick for front-runner. Then pundits had to consider the troubling possibility that they'd shake Trump, but get left with Ben Carson.
Rubio is still the most popular choice, though he's yet to consolidate support among establishment Republicans, but thanks to two polls out of Iowa, now there's another alternative: Ted Cruz.
Some, like Slate's Jamelle Bouie and the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza, made the argument for Cruz as a plausible nominee a few weeks ago, but he earned widespread attention this week when CBS News and Quinnipiac polls showed him in second place among likely Iowa Caucus participants. CBS has Trump at 30 percent, Cruz at 21 percent, and Carson at 19 percent. In the Quinnipiac poll, Trump has 25 percent, Cruz has 23 percent, Carson has 18 percent, and Rubio has 13 percent. A month ago that survey had Carson in the lead at 28 percent and Cruz in fourth at 10 percent.
That was enough to make Bill Kristol declare on Tuesday, "Cruz could well win in Iowa. That certainly would make him one of the final three or four [GOP candidates]. Things can change so quickly as we know, but if you have to look now you've got to say it looks like Trump, Cruz, Rubio and maybe Carson."
Cruz has a very well-organized operation; he has 100,000 volunteers nationwide and he's raised more money than any candidates except Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton. The Texas senator has been fighting Carson for evangelical voters, and it looks like he benefited the most from the neurosurgeon's recent stumbles regarding foreign policy and assaulting family members.
The Post's Paul Waldman laid out Cruz's path to victory:
As Carson fades, Cruz keeps winning support in Iowa, where evangelical voters are a dominant force. He wins the caucus on February 1, winding up on the front page of every newspaper and in demand by every TV station. That vaults him up to second or third in the New Hampshire primary, which takes place a week later. Then the campaign moves south, for the South Carolina primary on February 20, a brief detour to Nevada on the 23rd, and then Super Tuesday on March 1st, which will include Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Virginia, and Cruz’s home state of Texas — southern states with lots of evangelical voters where he could do very well.
But he also acknowledged that there are some serious hurdles for Cruz — like the fact that he's despised by both Democrats and Republicans in Washington, and "If he somehow won the nomination, it would be a disaster for the party to rival Barry Goldwater’s defeat in 1964."
The Atlantic's David A. Graham says a perceived Cruz surge might actually help Rubio consolidate support. "If Cruz continues to gain altitude, it might lead GOP leaders to rally around Rubio because they dislike Cruz — or because they fear he’d be a much weaker general-election candidate," Graham writes. But in the meantime, Team Rubio seems concerned by Cruz's newfound popularity. A Rubio backer is behind this new Iowa TV ad that accuses Cruz of "leading from behind" on foreign policy.
(VIDEO-AT-LINK)
And while Cruz has refused to criticize Trump in an effort to endear himself to the billionaire's supporters, it looks like he's changing strategy. In the past few days, he criticized Trump's proposed Muslim registry and rejected his fellow candidates' aggressive response to the Paris attacks. "Tone matters," Cruz, told the Associated Press. "Are there some in the Republican Party whose rhetoric is unhelpful with regard to immigration? Yes."
Salon found Cruz's effort to cast himself as a moderate laughable, especially since he suggested a religious test for Syrian refugees hoping to enter the U.S. However, portraying himself as a candidate who's tough on foreign policy, and can express his views forcefully without sounding unhinged, may work for Cruz — at least until someone else surges into the role of Trump's primary rival.
Totally agreed, and I will add that Trump is also a genuine patriot with the best interests of America at heart. So was Jimmy Carter and so is Gov. “Moonbeam” Jerry Brown.
Here’s a summary of what’s been said here so far:
1. Cruz will lose because of birther issue
2. Only Trump can beat Hillary
3. Hillary will kill Trump
4. Trump beats Hillary handily
5. Trump beats Hillary by 70% to 30%
6. Trump gets the vote of ALL Reagan Democrats
Responses to this:
1. Good Grief - Charlie Brown
2. You can’t be serious - John McEnroe
I like Cruz.
I like Trump more.
I like Trump/Cruz best of all.
I agree with that.....but to answer the headlines question, the only person who can topple Trump is Trump probably - and if he does topple for whatever reason, it will probably play right into Cruz' hands. There are some areas where Cruz is very much more reliably conservative....and I don't see Cruz bringing them up - but if they come up for some other reason, it will be very interesting to see how this plays out.
The other thing is....will Trump attack Cruz like he did Carson - when Carson surge in the polls? If he does, I think that will play into Cruz' hands. IF he does......
Indeed, Americans had such indifferent and lukewarm liking for Bill Clinton that MOST OF THEM voted for someone else both times Clinton was elected. "Popular," my foot!! If he'd been popular, he'd have won a majority. He NEVER DID, yet the MSM has pretty much the whole world bamboozled into thinking he was "popular," when the man could never even muster more than a minority of Americans to vote for him.
That is just one example of the power of the MSM at projecting illusions to manipulate political perceptions of Americans. IT IS STILL IN FORCE. Hillary Clinton is a false flag, like the distraction the magician uses to draw people's eyes away from the trick he's doing with the other hand.
Not women’s issues.... Think of her senate campaign and all the hullabaloo when lazio dared walk over to her and hand her a piece of paper. Now picture trump being the d!ck that he naturally is...hell he doesn’t even have to...every word he utters will be an attack on the poor woman. He’ll be toast at the first debate. Count on it.
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Hillary is not seen a poor (defenseless) women. So Trump can attack her as he would anyone. National security is the major issue & Hillary has been a failure as Secretary of State. Trump will beat Hillary, handily. By the way only Trump can do it, will lose to Hillary...because they are politicians...republicans are fed up with politicians.
You are the one kidding yourself. Yes, Hillary will get votes b/c she is a woman but Trump will still fare better than Cruz or anyone else if that is the case. Ergo, Trump in the GOP is still our best bet.
Goodness, what problems we have with Trump or Cruz is our choice. : )
All of the sudden I see a bunch of these MSM articles on how Cruz is a big threat to Trump. The MSM and the GOPe wants them to go after each other. Don’t take the bate!
True.
Agree.
Trump will get her goat so bad she will blow up.
She may very well be. As you said, she's unpopular with Democrats and of course there are all the scandals. Normally I'd have a hard time thinking Sanders even had a shot, but that Barry was actually elected -- twice -- demonstrates even an anti-American socialist can be elected.
So many folks, guys like Hugh Hewitt and I'd say probably most FReepers, believe that Democrat's can't win if it's not close -- in other words, that vote fraud by Democrats is too minor to make a real difference if we only get our act together. That kind of thinking is not only wrong, it is dangerous to the point of being figuratively suicidal.
The ONLY reason Democrats cheat is that much of the time, it's the ONLY way they can win.
I don’t think he will. He has had good words for Cruz and implied that he would select Cruz for VP if he were nominated.
Cruz is running a very good campaign and doesn’t seem to be making any major mistakes.
If the remaining non-viable candidates running would do the right think and drop I think we could create an overwhelming tide for Cruz, or for Trump. Unfortunately the moron Bush the Lesser will probably not do the right thing for the country and drop. At least Nixon did the right thing for the country and resigned but I don’t think Bush cares a bit about the country or the Constitution; just his corporate sponsors.
You may be right....tho I'm not sure. One thing, this is a huge dynamic that will unfold in some form or fashion in the coming weeks and months. At some point, if Trump stays up there and Cruz continues to creep up - there's gonna be a collision of one sort or the other. There has to be. I've a few ideas on how it might play out, but there are no guarantees.
How can you post to two different threads at the exact same time?
I hope so.
5.56mm
Salon doesn't know the difference between a constitutionalist and a moderate. No way Ted Cruz is casting himself as a “moderate”.
As for the religious test for the ISIS infected Syrian refugees, it's not only right, it's essential.
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