Posted on 08/26/2015 11:05:30 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Republicans, and observers of the Republican Party, have concluded that Donald Trump’s gonzo commandeering of their presidential primary has defied their attempts to suppress it because he is crazy. This is broadly true, but not quite in the way Trump’s befuddled critics mean it. What they say is that Trump is winning because he attracts voters with nonsensical ideas. Lindsey Graham calls Trump “a huckster billionaire whose political ideas are gibberish.” Former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson tells Evan Osnos, in Osnos’s paraphrasing, “anyone who runs for office discovers that some portion of the electorate is available to be enraged and manipulated, if a candidate is willing to do it.”
Trump has certainly crafted an appeal to voters who like impractical ideas. But his true threat lies in the fact that Trump himself is crazy — not just ideologically, though he is certainly that as well, but in the sense that he lacks any rational connection between his actions and his goals, to the extent that his goals are discernible at all. That is also his downfall.
For a long time, the political profession believed that Trump would never run for president. A profile by McKay Coppins last year framed Trump’s long history of teasing reporters with campaigns that he would not undertake as an unbreakable pattern of publicity-hounding. “Over the course of 25 years, he’s repeatedly toyed with the idea of running for president and now, maybe, governor of New York,” explained the story’s summary. “With all but his closest apostles finally tired of the charade, even the Donald himself has to ask, what’s the point?”
Trump defied the skeptics by actually announcing a run for office. He then defied the skeptics by surging into the polling lead, and again by maintaining his lead in the face of a withering assault by the Republican Establishment, led by Fox News.
By design or (more likely) by accident, Trump has inhabited a ripe ideological niche. Both parties contain ranges of opinions within them. And both are run by elites who have more socially liberal and economically conservative views than their own voters. (There are plenty of anti-abortion, anti-immigration, anti-same-sex-marriage Democrats not represented by their leaders.) But the tension between base and elite runs deeper in the Republican Party. Conservative leaders tend to care very little about conservative social policy, or even disagree with it altogether. Conservatives care a great deal about cutting the top tax rate, deregulating the financial industry, and, ideally, reducing spending on social insurance — proposals that have virtually no authentic following among the rank and file.
This chart by Lee Drutman, tracking public opinion on immigration and Social Security, displays the disconnect:
The sparsely filled bottom right corner represents the libertarian-ish leanings of the Republican elite, which would like to liberalize immigration law and decrease Social Security benefits. The upper left corner, thick with dots, represents the populist, opposite combination: higher Social Security spending and less immigration. The Republican field — all of which, other than Trump, has endorsed raising the Social Security retirement age — is fighting over the tiny right side, leaving the huge upper left all to Trump. A new poll shows Trump leading New Hampshire with 35 percent, and the next-highest candidate, John Kasich, pulling in 11 percent. A South Carolina poll has Trump pulling in 30 percent of the vote.
Trump has homed in on a bona fide weakness in the Republican Party structure, one that has fascinated liberal critics in particular. The Republican Party has harnessed one set of passions, and then channeled them into unrelated policy outcomes favored by the party elite. Historically, the passions they have harnessed have revolved around foreign policy — like anti-communism, or the surge in nationalism following 9/11. Some of those passions have revolved around culture — a love of guns, the Pledge of Allegiance, a disdain for politicians who look kind of French, and so on.
But the classic formula seems to be yielding diminishing returns. Since 2012, the Republican Party has been attempting to work out a social profile that is better suited to an electorate in which blue-collar whites account for a declining share of the vote. Party strategists believe that the GOP’s long-term interests, and probably its short-term interests as well, require it to heal its disastrous standing among Latinos, Asian-Americans, and white voters with a college degree. They have no consensus over just how to handle it. The three major contenders differ in their approaches. Jeb Bush is trying to maintain his mainstream credibility throughout the primary, keeping the door open for endorsing comprehensive immigration reform. Scott Walker is running as a traditional, down-the-line conservative. Marco Rubio is carving a space between those two.
Trump offers no plausible solution to this conundrum. Everything about his persona seems designed to worsen it. His populist style appeals to some blue-collar whites, but is poison among the college-educated voters who have defected from the Republican coalition since the 1990s. His grotesque misogyny would deepen the hostility of women. And Trump has made himself the symbol of anti-Latino racism. His standing among Hispanic voters is off-the-charts bad:
There is little reason to conclude that the reaction to Trump’s characterization of immigrants from Mexico as rapists and murderers has humbled him. He has embraced the most nativist elements of the restrictionist movement. Last night, when Jorge Ramos — often called the Walter Cronkite of Hispanic America — tried to ask a question, Trump berated him and barked, “Go back to Univision.”
So the prospect of a Trump nomination justifiably terrifies Republicans. But unlike the prospect of nominating a Scott Walker — or a more extreme version, like Ted Cruz — the risk does not carry any proportionate reward. Bush, Walker, and Rubio all agree on the same basic domestic goals. If elected, they will try to enact the party’s agenda on taxes, regulation, and social spending.
Trump dissents from the field not just in his political strategy but in his overall orientation. While he shares the Republicans’ disdain for President Obama, he has not committed himself to a Republican program. Jeb Bush has frantically tried to question his commitment to the party by pointing out Trump’s prior support for single-payer health care and a large tax on the wealthy. These positions horrify the Republican Establishment. (A recent Wall Street Journal editorial cites Trump’s ability to defy the opinions of the donor class as a major reason to oppose him.) But few Republican voters find them actually disqualifying. The danger he poses is the prospect of harnessing the social passions of the conservative base and channeling them into (from the party’s point of view) the wrong agenda.
Trump poses a dire threat to the party: If elected, he could not be trusted to work for the Republican agenda. The party elite will oppose Trump with everything it has.
Trump has responded to attacks from fellow Republicans the way he has always conducted his feuds with journalists, celebrities, reality-show victims, or business rivals. The crude put-down (with misogynist overtones if his target is female) is Trump’s signature métier. And so he has insulted influential party actors like George Will, Charles Krauthammer, Megyn Kelly, Karl Rove, Michelle Malkin, Dick Cheney, the last three Republican presidential nominees, and so on. He negotiated a peace with Fox News, the party’s quasi-official propaganda organ, and then blew it up for no reason.
In the short run, this can work. Trump is a polarizer. His grotesque, bombastic arrogance has worked very well as a business strategy. Everybody has an opinion about Trump, positive or negative. From a commercial standpoint, it doesn’t matter much which is which. Trump-haters will tune in to his show just as Trump-lovers will. Even if three-quarters of the public wants nothing to do with him, the quarter that admires Trump forms a massive customer base. That is how he has built a lucrative brand for golf courses, hotels, restaurants, beauty pageants, and so on.
But politics does not work like business. You can get rich being loved by a quarter of the country and hated by the rest, but you can’t get elected president that way. Trump has a brilliant strategy for winning the loyalty of a quarter of the primary electorate, or perhaps a third. He has no strategy for winning a majority, which is what you need to get the nomination. Indeed, the things Trump has done to elevate his profile have pushed that majority further from his reach. If the campaign gets to the point where there is one candidate left standing against Trump, that candidate will enjoy the unified support of the party's financial, media, and organizational strength. Trump has the power to destroy, but not to conquer.
Which brings us back to the question of what it is Trump is after. His presidential campaign seems to have come at enormous financial cost. His undisguised (or less-disguised) racism has made him an economic pariah. He has lost sponsorship agreements from a long list of corporations that want to sell things to people who aren’t white. He’s traded his lucrative brand for Pat Buchanan’s brand.
This immunity from consequence gives Trump the power to wreak apparently limitless havoc upon what is currently his party. The consequences Republicans impose for Trump's offenses have no effect on him. You cannot threaten a man if you don’t even know what he cares about. Is Trump running to spite the reporters who mocked him as a bluffer? As an expensive lark, like the time he got piano lessons from Elton John? To use his political fame to trade up for his next wife? Does Trump actually believe he can become president of the United States?
Same place every liberal goes. First define your position as the only sane one. Next, label your opponents mentally ill with no proof. Lastly, send them to reeducation camps.
Same as it ever was. And until people at large rediscover liberals’ historical pattern of that, they will continue to grab more power.
“Trump has certainly crafted an appeal to voters who like impractical ideas...”
like fighting a two front war against brutal enemies, i.e., WWII
Like going to the Moon. How stupid do they think we are? That cant be done!!
Like tapping the energy used at the creation of the universe to create a Super Bomb and end WWII. How naive!
How about this for a laugh? Take a bunch of farmers and God knows who else and make them into an army capable of defeating the reigning champ British!!! lol. What a STUPID, IMPRACTICAL, IMPOSSIBLE IDEA!!!
oh, wait..
Old Jonathan must have been in a Coma the past seven years if he thinks Obama is rational, sane, and pro-USA. Either that or he is as one with Obama on all issues and he has developed a liking for unchecked tyranny.
Capital B and a capital S
Whether Trump wins or not, the GOPe is the big loser here. Everyone sees that they are sneering at him. Who would vote for, let alone trust, their hand-picked candidate anymore? They blew it.
Chait is smart but he fundamentally does not understand conservatives. Other liberals find him convincing because they don’t understand conservatives either. Hence you find his writings all over the place, and they’re always smart but never quite correct.
Lots of conventional wisdom and wishful thinking.
Ann Coulter is right: A Republican can kiss the “minority” voters goodbye if he goes for the white voters. As she says: If Romney had gotten 100% of the black vote, he would still have lost. If he had gotten 5% more of the white vote, he would have won.
Trump doesn’t need the Hispanic vote.
Reagan got the lowest percentage of the minorities in 1984 and won by a huge landslide.
Trump only needs about 62% of the white vote to win.
A putz like Romney got 59% in 2012 so Trump should easily hit that number.
That Evan Osnos article is going to be the Go-to thing now for the left to launch their allegations ... that daring to reclaim America’s borders and laws is downright crazy, fascist, and racist.
I pray we have the fortitude to Make America Great Again ~ God Help Us!
My guess is the last chart by Gallop was a poll of illegal immigrants.
Donald Trump is crazy.
...I like that in a man!
“Last night, when Jorge Ramos — often called the Walter Cronkite of Hispanic America — tried to ask a question, Trump berated him and barked, “Go back to Univision.”
The problem for many commentators is that with the internet, anyone interested can see the actual event. They would then know that Jorge Ramos attempted to hijack Trumps news conference. It was only after Jorge refused to yield that Trump had him escorted out of the room.
So this commentator played fast and loose with the truth to make a point. I wonder how many believe this version even when the true version is available for reviewing?
He (the commentator) failed to mention that Jorge is not an unbias reporter (and in this vein he is the same as Walter Cronkite) nor the relationship between his daughter and Hillary, or the $500 million lawsuit Trump has filed against Univision. Disclosures that any honest reporter would make.
Oh. Here's the bunghole with the crystal ball.
In looking at the net favorable/unfavorable graph, I can think of no better testament to how each candidates feel and would do to illegal immigration than looking at it from the Hispanic point of view. To my mind, being on the gray side of that graph is the plus for me.
I want my country back, I’m tired of seeing these illegals everywhere - they’re like Tribbles for cripes sake only we can’t solve it all and beam them back to Harry Mudd’s ship.
Trump will very likely be the nominee. The GOPe set up a system deliberately designed to allow their anointed guy to lock up the nomination early with 30% of the vote, while the rest of the field was still divided. They also rigged it to supposedly favor the “moderate” candidate, by allowing independents and even Democrats to participate in many states. Now Trump is the guy with a solid 30% or so, and he will have big appeal to independents, while the GOPe’s anointed candidates are all duds. Oops.
Obama’s a Marxist and Crazy Uncle Joe is ‘crazy’
Guess that means only crazy (in their eyes) republicans can’t get elected
Crazy...yeah crazy like a fox and twice as fast.
this coming from jonathonchait, a dweeb that can't even afford to rent a room at the Trump Tower, complaining that Trump 'lacks rational connection between actions and goals'.
What a maroon.
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