Posted on 08/22/2015 6:42:10 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Jeb Bush is sticking with the plan.
Despite Donald Trump shooting ahead in the polls and Bush’s debate performance getting bad reviews — and amid signs of frustration on the campaign trail from the former Florida governor himself — his supporters aren’t panicking, multiple sources close to the candidate insist. The Bush camp is projecting confidence that the Summer of Trump will fade to winter, and that Jeb will prevail when it matters.
Here are five reasons Jebworld isn’t freaking out:
1. ‘TRUMP V. SOMEBODY’
Trump is the man to beat, the undisputed leader in national and early-state polls. Even Bush, before launching into a lengthy attack on Trump’s conservative bona fides, called him “the current front-runner” this week and said the billionaire businessman had “done a pretty amazing job to get to that point.”
Before Trump soared, Bush was on top. But while Trump’s climb has corresponded with Bush’s fall, Bush hasn’t crashed to earth.
Being No. 2 is not necessarily a bad thing, Jeb’s allies argue: So much focus on Trump, they say, means the rest of the Republican field isn’t training their guns on him.
“It’s going to come down to Trump v. Somebody and Jeb is the somebody,” said one consultant who has worked for Bush, summing up the thinking inside his orbit.
In this reading, Bush’s amped-up attacks on Trump look more like a calculated strategy than a sign of panic. The more the press focuses on Trump v. Bush, the calculation goes, the less attention the lesser candidates get, starving them of oxygen. A two-man race is good for Jeb.
Bush’s backers acknowledge Trump has unexpectedly soared. But they believe he has a ceiling of support in the high 20s to early 30s – and that it’s unsustainable. Trump’s demise has been long-predicted and refuted, though.
2. JEB, INC.
By any measure, the roughly $120 million amassed by Bush’s campaign, super PAC and leadership PAC is as stunning as it is life-sustaining for the candidate. Money doesn’t buy love in an election, but it puts a down payment on it. And Bush’s camp is about to spread the love.
Right to Rise, the pro-Bush super PAC sitting on $100 million, this week began flooding New Hampshire and Iowa with mailers touting Bush’s conservative record. That’s the first salvo ahead of a TV ad campaign that begins Sept. 15 with an initial $10-$15 million buy and isn’t expected to end until Election Day. This first round of ads are focused on presenting a positive message and introduction of Bush to the broader electorate. But don’t be fooled — the super PAC has its own in-house team of researchers digging into his opponents and could go negative quickly when necessary.
While Bush’s Miami headquarters cheered the announcement, aides in Los Angeles insist it had nothing to do with Trump’s surge.
“We have a long-term strategy and are in the strongest position for a sustained and independent effort to support Jeb Bush,” said Right to Rise spokesman Paul Lindsay.
Beyond its size, the super PAC’s formulation was unique because it was built at the same time Bush’s team was constructing his campaign. By delaying the official announcement of his candidacy, Bush wasn’t bound by some restrictions that limit official candidates from working closely with super PACs. So he raised unlimited sums of money for it and put his longtime adviser, Mike Murphy, in charge. That allowed the super PAC to become infused with Bush’s DNA, so as it grew independent it still reflected the core mission and style of Bush’s official campaign, which hasn’t spent any money on TV, radio or mailers — leaving it free to focus on organization.
3. BUSH, INC.
Before there was Jeb, Inc. 2016, there was Bush, Inc. His grandfather was a U.S. senator; his father and brother were presidents. No other family in modern America has wielded such political power and had such ties to the GOP establishment and Wall Street, where he reestablished relations after leaving the governor’s mansion in 2007. Membership has its privileges. About half of Bush’s total $120 million haul came from donors who previously gave to his brother or father, a recent Associated Press analysis found.
These aren’t small donors — they’re millionaires, billionaires, major CEOs and former ambassadors. Not only are they loyal to the Bush dynasty, they’ve seen insurgent candidates flare up before and aren’t spooked by Trump, unlike some of the less experienced contributors to some of the other campaigns.
“Our donors are very sophisticated people. They know it’s a long-term process. They know about summer bumps in the pre-season,” Murphy said. “They’re happy with where we are.”
Several Bush bundlers told POLITICO they remain committed to Bush and that the Trump surge happening in the dog days of summer couldn’t have been better timed.
“I think he is on the right track. This is a marathon, not a sprint,” said David Beightol, a Bush supporter and fundraiser. “Trump is a celebrity and he gets people’s attention so it makes sense that people are drawn to him. Over time, people will make a decision who is more presidential.”
Bush’s camp is banking on that continued support. He continues to keep an aggressive fundraising schedule. He’ll be in Virginia next week and has a Washington fundraiser slated for Sept. 23.
That said, while no one is bolting to other candidates, several donors said they are looking for Bush to show more fire on the campaign trail and have a breakout moment that shows he has the passion for the job like he did in his first gubernatorial run.
4. THE BUSH RECORD
Underpinning Jeb, Inc.’s belief in its candidate is that no other Republican candidate can match his record as governor: high job growth (more so than any other GOP candidate), a pioneering school-choice voucher program, fighting the teacher’s unions, eliminating a stocks-and-bonds tax, expanding gun-ownership rights, restricting abortions and cutting so much in spending that an ally dubbed him “Veto Corleone” for “whacking” so many parts of the budget.
This is “the Florida story” that Jeb, Inc. has already started to tell. The campaign and his backers say that, in the end, most Republican voters don’t know it and only identify Bush as the son and brother of former presidents. And Bush supporters are counting on Bush’s long history of working to elect Republicans — in contrast to Trump, who has supported and contributed to Democrats.
“Mr. Trump doesn’t have a proven conservative record,” Bush said in Iowa. “He was a Democrat longer in the last decade than he was a Republican.”
Look for Bush’s campaign and super PAC to continue to hammer this message over and over again in the coming weeks as both look to introduce him to the broader electorate.
5. BUSH TIME
With all that money and institutional support, Bush’s team says it’s secure because it has the luxury of time. Though he’s now in second place, Bush isn’t fending off daily questions about his longterm viability. Bush has compared himself to the slow, plodding tortoise in Aesop’s fable. He has also said he intends to be “joyous” on the campaign trail – a conceit he dropped recently as he began using Trump as a foil.
“It is going to be a long fall to the first primary and he’s doing all the right things,” said Richard Cullen, chairman of McGuireWoods, who was appointed a U.S. attorney by President George H.W. Bush. “I think Republicans ultimately are not going to look for soundbites or the flashiest candidates. We’re hungry for a win and he certainly is our best chance of beating Hillary, or Biden, or whoever ultimately is their nominee.”
Bush’s campaign and super PAC have no immediate plans to attack Trump in paid media. That’s what town hall events and free-media appearances on TV are for.
“It’s August,” said Bush spokesman Tim Miller. “Getting to use the August shark attack season to contrast Jeb’s proven conservative record against Trump’s past as a Democrat socialite is something we relish.”
The only time Jeb is mentioned around here it’s somebody saying how they wish he would just go away.
Reasonable: it’s way, way too early to ‘freak out’.
At this stage Frank Zappa may be re-animated by extraterrestrials and etc....
When Kasich, Christie and Rubio are told to drop out they won’t be splitting the GOPe vote and he’ll move up.
But maybe to just third or fourth place.
They did 'shop him, with LOL-Highlarious results.
I live in Ohio.The general feeling here is that Kasich is governor only because no one else wanted the job.
Lolololol
Why is anyone/everyone falling for this?
Politico is a democratic party organ—they want the democrat Hillary to win in November 2016.
She—if she lasts—can CERTAINLY beat JEB Bush.
She won’t beat Trump.
That’s the sole reason Politico is running this story.
In their little scared (of Trump) hearts, they’re hoping beyond hope it will be another Clinton versus Bush with Clinton winning again.
Oh yeah, it's just these hot, humid, muggy days of summer and all the irritating, afternoon thunderstorms that are causing around 30% of Republicans and conservatives to just act plain irrational this time of year. As soon as the weather cools and the leaves reach their peak of Fall colors, they'll come to their senses and start supporting Jeb.
They'll forget about 30 years of lies about immigration and the deliberate failure to enforce the law, and all the thousands of plants and jobs that left for cheap labor nations, and the two presidents named Bush who are as responsible for all that as anyone who could be named.
It's just those Dog Days of Summer turning all these folks into "crazies". No legitimate issues are bugging these folks. They'll come come to their senses around December or January and get behind Jebbie.
Why do ppl keep saying he is in second place?
Good question. I think it’s silly to follow the polls too closely this early on so I don’t really know what they’re saying. I know that what I see of headlines doesn’t paint a particularly bright picture for Jeb. And then I come across a piece like this that is all rainbows and buttercups and have to laugh.
Caputo and Palmer overlook one important element: the toxic Bush name.
Obama ran against it to get elected — twice.
It is still, maybe even more, toxic than when GW was finishing his last term.
Even Jeb is trying to distance himself by running as Jeb rather than as Jeb Bush or Bush III.
I agree with you
I’ve never seen any like this panic. I’m starting to believe those Illuminati theories.
It’s only a flesh wound.
Yeah, I've seen tons of ads against Hillary by that Super PAC for Jeb. They're really going hard against the Democrats.....
Oh, wait...
Hitlery, as you know, is an ardent supporter of Planned Parenthood--the high priests of abortion and infanticide in modern day America.
Before Trump soared, Bush was on top. But while Trump’s climb has corresponded with Bush's fall, Bush hasn't crashed to earth. Being No. 2 is not necessarily a bad thing, Jeb's allies argue...No, and No. Wrong, and wrong. Next!
Right to Rise, the pro-Bush super PAC sitting on $100 million... the super PAC has its own in-house team of researchers digging into his opponents and could go negative quickly when necessary.Yeah, as if they haven't been doing that since day one. And, uh, Trump is a billionaire. And Cruz has raised over $50 million for his campaign, is sympatico with Trump, and neither of them has the last name "Bush". Next!
No other family in modern America has wielded such political power and had such ties to the GOP establishment and Wall Street, where he reestablished relations after leaving the governor's mansion in 2007. Membership has its privileges. About half of Bush's total $120 million haul came from donors who previously gave to his brother or father...Jeb is pro-amnesty in an anti-amnesty milieu, and clearly it will be difficult (as he has said) coming up with even ONE conservative position on ANYTHING.
4. THE BUSH RECORDYeah, good one. Next!
Though he's now in second place, Bush isn't fending off daily questions about his longterm viability...Jeb's in what, fourth? Fifth? And he's fading out like a bad fart. He HAS no longterm viability.
Partisan Media Shill Alert!
NO. MORE. BUSHs!
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