Posted on 11/02/2014 7:59:42 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
By this point in an election year, when polls are coming in by the bucketload late in the evening, you can get a sense for which pollsters are taking fresh samples of public opinion and which are herding toward the conventional wisdom.
J. Ann Selzer, whose firm Selzer & Company conducts the Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll, is in the former group: She’s always been one to trust what her data is telling her. On Dec. 31, 2007, Selzer’s poll was among the first to show a large lead for Barack Obama in the Iowa Democratic caucuses — most other polls had a small edge for Hillary Clinton. But Selzer’s poll proved to almost exactly match Obama’s margin in the caucuses four days later.
In September this year, Selzer’s poll showed a 6 percentage-point lead for the Republican Joni Enrst in the Iowa Senate race, defying others that had shown the race as a tossup. Although an early October Selzer poll showed the Democrat Bruce Braley narrowing his deficit to just 1 point, the final Des Moines Register poll, released Saturday night, has Ernst up 51-44 — a 7-point advantage. Other polls of Iowa show Ernst ahead, on average, by a percentage point or two....
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
Its just a gut feeling but I think there are some big surprises coming in a good way.
I simply trust no one...too much cheating...The machine that was flipping votes to the other party...someone stuffing a ballot box...geez...
Agreed - this is how I felt in 2012. I thought for sure the impostor would be booted out of the White House.
My feeling on these “polls” is the same feeling I had when some “pollsters” were predicting a Romney win. Funny thing, I don’t recall that happening. Many of the “key” elections are too close and could easily flip one way or the other and when anything is this close, when I factor in the dem cheating senario, I take those polls with a grain of salt. Two local examples:
Yesterday in Duval County (Jacksonville), someone cut the phone cables at the GOP party HQ such that they were unable to make any voter calls. Today in the local rag, which remarkedly supported Scott, there was an AP story which was so anti Scott to make ones blood boil. A one side hit piece noting all the downsides, from the dem point of view, of his administration, while not mentioning anything about Crist in a supposedly “even tempered” view of the candidates.
It would not surprise me one bit to wake up on Wednesday to some headline which reads: GOP falls short nationally in Senate bid, will have 49 seats...Scot loses by 100K.
Silver recognizes that the turn of events in Iowa is significant. If the Iowa turn turns out to be a national trend, Tuesday is going to be bad news for the Democrats. They will, of course, cling to faint hope in the potential runoffs in Georgia and Louisiana, but Nunn and Landrieu are going to need a ton of dead folks to pull it off.
2012 most polls had the GOP losing.
If I instead tell the model to assume the polls have no overall bias — even though they might be off in particular states — the Democrats’ chances of keeping the Senate would be just 17 percent.
Margin of fraud = 11 percent.
yes there was much fraud in 2012 and then again many “conservatives” decided that they couldn’t vote for a Mormon and sat home, voted third party, or just didn’t vote...many on FR sadly....
It’s not looking good in NC 150,000 more Democrats vs Republicans have early voted
But how does that compare to past elections?
Win the senate it is a must do.
Silver has the odds of GOP taking over Senate @ 73%. What are the odds, Mr Silver, if you factor in massive voter fraud by the Rats...?
According to Jamie Dupree, it’s a significant difference from the past, in favor of the Dems, but I put more stock in the polls showing Kay Hagan around 44%.
I think Silver’s “special sauce” is inside info about Dem GOTV effort, which I think he admitted in ‘08. Unless the Dems deprived him of it when he left NYT, he knows it ain’t happening for them this time.
It’s up and they’ve really mobilized the black vote
Argh C’mon North Carolina!!!!!!!
Yeah, depressed turnout will kill the Dems in NC. Tea Party Repubs will turn out just to boost Kay Hagan from her seat.
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