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Mitt Romney's Poll Surge Might Be Bigger Than It Looks
US News and World Report ^ | May 15, 2012 | Peter Roff, contributing editor

Posted on 05/15/2012 9:49:54 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

The latest CBS News/New York Times poll shows President Barack Obama and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in a dead heat in the race for the White House.

Given that Obama has had a relatively good week and Romney something of a bad one, this poll is a real shocker. Asked for whom they would vote were the election held today, 46 percent of the nearly 600 registered voters surveyed said Romney while 43 percent said Obama. Given that the error margin is plus or minus four points, it looks like the race is all tied up.

Actually, Romney may be in better shape than the poll suggests. The same survey conducted in April showed each man with 46 percent of the vote while the polls from March and February showed the president ahead.

What is particularly interesting is this is a poll of registered voters, meaning it's a survey representing the entire universe of those who may cast ballots in the upcoming election. Thanks to things like "motor voter," there are far more Democrats in the pool of registered voters than Republicans and, unlike surveys of so-called "likely voters," many of them may not bother to vote. It is not too much of an inference, therefore, to think that Obama may be losing the country—and that's because he has failed to get a handle on the nation's economic troubles.

Unemployment is down from where it had been under Obama, to 8.1 percent, but that's not because the economy is creating jobs. It's because, as this simple analysis shows, large numbers of people have simply stopped looking for work. "In April," wrote Tyler Durden on Zerohedge.com, "the number of people not in the labor force rose by a whopping 522,000 from 87,897,000 to 88,419,000," which he says is the highest number ever recorded. The labor force participation rate, meaning the people who are working or looking for work, is now at 64.3 percent, a 30-year low.

With numbers like that, with Obama having wiped out 30 years of job creation under presidents of both parties, is it any surprise that 62 percent of respondents in the CBS News/New York Times poll "cited the economy as the most important issue in the presidential election"?

"Concern over the budget deficit ranked a distant second at 11 percent, followed by health care at 9 percent. Seven percent picked same-sex marriage, 4 percent cited foreign policy and 2 percent chose immigration," according to an analysis of the numbers conducted by CBS.

The response of the White House and Obama's campaign to the numbers has been to attack the way the survey was conducted—which is really their only choice since they can't dispute what the numbers say. The president's deputy campaign manager, Stephanie Cutler, told NBC's Chuck Todd, "We can't put the methodology of that poll aside, because the methodology was significantly biased." When pressed, Cutler called the sample "biased."

Maybe so, but that doesn't get around the fact that 67 percent of respondents—remember these are registered voters, not likely voters—rated the condition of the national economy as either "fairly bad" or "very bad." And 63 percent said they thought things would stay the same or get worse.

Equally disturbing for the White House, and perhaps the reason why the Obama campaign, its political allies, and its friends in the media have suddenly unleashed the attack squad against the former governor, is that this same poll found Romney leading among independents, among men and among women, 46 percent to 44 percent for the president—still within the margin of error but an indication that any bounce the Democrats might have gotten over accusations the GOP was engaged in a "war on women" has dissipated.

Team Obama needs a new strategy. It doesn't take a college degree to figure out that just about the only thing left is to try and make Romney radioactive, which means a nasty and negative summer is in the offing. It will be interesting to see if the same journalists and Washington "deep thinkers" who call out the Republicans every time they say something uncomplimentary will be as hard on the Democrats as they "go nuclear" on Romney.


TOPICS: Campaign News; Issues; Polls; State and Local
KEYWORDS: 2012; obama; polls; romney
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To: mylife; dfwgator

Do you really think the Russians and Chinese want Obama to be Secretary General?


121 posted on 05/16/2012 12:37:59 AM PDT by Paleo Conservative
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To: re_nortex

A-HA!! So THAT`S what Bob Beckel was doing in his pre-politics days!


122 posted on 05/16/2012 1:41:26 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Buying Drain-O requires photo I.D... yet voting doesn't???)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

This fake poll is to help Romney (like all fake polls).

Their GOAL? To re-elect Obama for Romney/Soros.


123 posted on 05/16/2012 3:36:32 AM PDT by Diogenesis ("Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. " Pres. Ronald Reagan)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The author missed one obvious and important point: this was a poll of registered no likely voters, so it underestimates Romney’s lead by 2-3 extra points.


124 posted on 05/16/2012 3:51:46 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: RIghtwardHo

Au contraries, I predict right now something close to a 53 47 Romney victory, and a very large electoral victory.


125 posted on 05/16/2012 3:54:17 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS
Puhleeze. ROMNEY is hated and has no chance.

Romney is where he is because he LIES and CHEATS.

And America already has a lying cheater.


126 posted on 05/16/2012 4:00:02 AM PDT by Diogenesis ("Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. " Pres. Ronald Reagan)
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To: Kansas58

Yeah, some of the coronets here are funny. I just came from a Tea Party/Liberty Group meeting where every speaker lamented the fact that Roomney was the candidate and every single one vowed to support him in every way possible.


127 posted on 05/16/2012 4:00:13 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS
Puhleeze.

Only Romney-Soros' FAKE TEA Parties back the Loser Romney.

Every REAL TEA-PARTY conservative will NOT VOTE
for the backstabbing bishop of gay marriage and deathcare.


128 posted on 05/16/2012 4:05:19 AM PDT by Diogenesis ("Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. " Pres. Ronald Reagan)
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To: RIghtwardHo
As predicted this race to the bottom is now showing up in the polls ~ both these guys are near the lower 40s ~ that 4% margin goes both ways on both of them, not just up on one and down on the other. ROMNEY AT 42%, and OBAMA AT 39%

Admittedly polls of "registered voters" don't show much, but we now have a trend-line. We could have a "race' where both the main candidates fall into the lower 30s, or even less, giving the various alternatives on the fringe a combined plurality.

129 posted on 05/16/2012 4:24:05 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: dfwgator

“Obama will campaign to be the next Secretary General of the UN”

An even better reason to kick them out of the country.


130 posted on 05/16/2012 4:26:42 AM PDT by A Strict Constructionist (We're an Oligrachy...Resistance to tyrants is obedience to God. Thomas Jefferson)
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To: dixjea

Thanks!


131 posted on 05/16/2012 4:40:12 AM PDT by jocon307
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To: reaganaut

“...the next time is always worse.”

We are trying to take over the Republican party and we are having some success with that.

I have a lot of admiration for Bush, fils but his “compassionate conservatism” was not a good plan. And let’s not forget he too ran as, and at the start at least, governed as a “uniter not divider” who was going to reach across the aisle, etc.

Well, it cost us all a pretty penny and it did NOTHING for him politically.

But I still say this whole conservative counter revolution that’s going on is only 2- 2 1/2 years old. We need to keep working on the Republicans, I don’t think we can plan to build up some 3rd party, I just don’t see that working.


132 posted on 05/16/2012 4:45:52 AM PDT by jocon307
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To: Kansas58
"Get over yourself. Every GOP Primary candidate will support Romney. Every elected Republican will support Romney. The NRA will support Romney. The NRLC will support Romney. The Club for Growth will support Romney. Nearly every conservative group out there will support Romney."

Unfortunately, a small minority of conservatives, those highlighted in this post, won't.

133 posted on 05/16/2012 5:14:38 AM PDT by norwaypinesavage (Galileo: In science, the authority of a thousand is not worth the humble reasoning of one individual)
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To: RIghtwardHo
No disrespect to OP but ... oh please. Romney is going to get slaughtered. The bottom lines on this poll are suspect as Hell. The MSM is going to eviscerate him. Other polls released just today show him trailing badly in swing states. It’s 6 months out. This is what they want from you. The want you to fall in line like nice little sheep. Romney is a disaster. He is going to be slaughtered in Nov. But, hey. Don’t believe me. Just wait. Santorum 2012

Gonna take an awful lot of write-ins for your guy who ain't running (for President anyway) to attain the WH. I predict that Mitt has 200,000,000 better odds of doing it than Rick does. Get over it - your candidate has.

134 posted on 05/16/2012 5:22:33 AM PDT by trebb ("If a man will not work, he should not eat" From 2 Thes 3)
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To: RIghtwardHo
Santorum 2012?

I'd happily take Palin, DeMint, Perry, Cain, Bachmann, Santorum, or any of a hundred others over Romney. Unfortunately, the only candidate still running for the GOP nomination is the liberal former governor from Massachusetts. I don't like Romney. I don't trust him to be (in his own implausible words) "severely conservative". I don't want him to be our nominee. Still, our only choices are: Obama (the end of America as a free country), Romney (a continued slow decline for America), or a protest vote (which helps Obama but may warn the GOP leadership to play fair next time, maybe even to help all viable candidates to prepare). I'm not happy with any of the alternatives, but that's all we've got.

135 posted on 05/16/2012 6:46:39 AM PDT by Pollster1 (“A boy becomes a man when a man is needed.” - John Steinbeck)
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To: RC one

The state polls lag the national ones. The movement we’ve seen in the national polls this week should start showing up in state polls next week.


136 posted on 05/16/2012 7:11:29 AM PDT by B Knotts (Just another Tenther)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Yes, and Romney has had a surprising rise among women voters also.

Fox and Friends had a black representative on this morning ... sorry, can’t remember his name and he was aghast at Obama’s approval of gay marriage.

He was REALLY disturbed by it. But when asked if he would support Obama, of course, he said yes.

As he so eloquently put it, ‘somebody has to be president and I don’t know much about Romney.’ Duh.

Something was said about black voters staying home but that wasn’t pursued.

I’m looking forward to a Romney presidency. I think it will be great. The man is smart, a good businessman and smart enough to pick capable people for his staff.

I would be soooo deeply ashamed to post that I would rather have Obama than Romney. Really.


137 posted on 05/16/2012 7:19:51 AM PDT by altura (Looking for sanity in all the wrong places.)
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To: Charles Henrickson

Good to hear it.
However that has no baring on an individual.


138 posted on 05/16/2012 7:50:31 AM PDT by svcw (If one living cell on another planet is life, why isn't it life in the womb?)
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To: mylife; reaganaut

There is no such thing as a ballot with a pissed away vote.
You are just mad because some of us wont piss on your candidate.


139 posted on 05/16/2012 7:59:51 AM PDT by svcw (If one living cell on another planet is life, why isn't it life in the womb?)
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To: Diogenesis

Well, you are flat wrong. I was there, I’ve heard these people speak before, and I accurately reported what ws said. In fact, the FOUNDER of the Dayton Tea Party was there and he was supporting Romney. In fact he is the new chairman of the county GOP. So you do NOT know of wat you speak.


140 posted on 05/16/2012 11:18:19 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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