Skip to comments.Mitt Romney's Poll Surge Might Be Bigger Than It Looks
Posted on 05/15/2012 9:49:54 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The latest CBS News/New York Times poll shows President Barack Obama and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in a dead heat in the race for the White House.
Given that Obama has had a relatively good week and Romney something of a bad one, this poll is a real shocker. Asked for whom they would vote were the election held today, 46 percent of the nearly 600 registered voters surveyed said Romney while 43 percent said Obama. Given that the error margin is plus or minus four points, it looks like the race is all tied up.
Actually, Romney may be in better shape than the poll suggests. The same survey conducted in April showed each man with 46 percent of the vote while the polls from March and February showed the president ahead.
What is particularly interesting is this is a poll of registered voters, meaning it's a survey representing the entire universe of those who may cast ballots in the upcoming election. Thanks to things like "motor voter," there are far more Democrats in the pool of registered voters than Republicans and, unlike surveys of so-called "likely voters," many of them may not bother to vote. It is not too much of an inference, therefore, to think that Obama may be losing the countryand that's because he has failed to get a handle on the nation's economic troubles.
Unemployment is down from where it had been under Obama, to 8.1 percent, but that's not because the economy is creating jobs. It's because, as this simple analysis shows, large numbers of people have simply stopped looking for work. "In April," wrote Tyler Durden on Zerohedge.com, "the number of people not in the labor force rose by a whopping 522,000 from 87,897,000 to 88,419,000," which he says is the highest number ever recorded. The labor force participation rate, meaning the people who are working or looking for work, is now at 64.3 percent, a 30-year low.
With numbers like that, with Obama having wiped out 30 years of job creation under presidents of both parties, is it any surprise that 62 percent of respondents in the CBS News/New York Times poll "cited the economy as the most important issue in the presidential election"?
"Concern over the budget deficit ranked a distant second at 11 percent, followed by health care at 9 percent. Seven percent picked same-sex marriage, 4 percent cited foreign policy and 2 percent chose immigration," according to an analysis of the numbers conducted by CBS.
The response of the White House and Obama's campaign to the numbers has been to attack the way the survey was conductedwhich is really their only choice since they can't dispute what the numbers say. The president's deputy campaign manager, Stephanie Cutler, told NBC's Chuck Todd, "We can't put the methodology of that poll aside, because the methodology was significantly biased." When pressed, Cutler called the sample "biased."
Maybe so, but that doesn't get around the fact that 67 percent of respondentsremember these are registered voters, not likely votersrated the condition of the national economy as either "fairly bad" or "very bad." And 63 percent said they thought things would stay the same or get worse.
Equally disturbing for the White House, and perhaps the reason why the Obama campaign, its political allies, and its friends in the media have suddenly unleashed the attack squad against the former governor, is that this same poll found Romney leading among independents, among men and among women, 46 percent to 44 percent for the presidentstill within the margin of error but an indication that any bounce the Democrats might have gotten over accusations the GOP was engaged in a "war on women" has dissipated.
Team Obama needs a new strategy. It doesn't take a college degree to figure out that just about the only thing left is to try and make Romney radioactive, which means a nasty and negative summer is in the offing. It will be interesting to see if the same journalists and Washington "deep thinkers" who call out the Republicans every time they say something uncomplimentary will be as hard on the Democrats as they "go nuclear" on Romney.
Then get off your ass and dont bitch and moan.
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You make a false assumption. I have done much more than just sit here and bitch and moan. I even offered to run in my state and was told I was ‘too conservative’. That is the state of the GOP.
I’m campaigning for a REAL conservative, not a liberal RINO.
That doesn’t change the fact that the ‘tea party’ hasn’t done squat, nor will they.
When was the last time a GOP congress fought against a GOP POTUS on anything important? They will give Romney a pass like they always do.
Truth hurts, don’t it?
I’m not the one rolling over.
I’m all for fighting and I agree this has been a long term problem, however, we always say ‘vote for the GOP and it will be better next time’ and the next time is always worse.
I have a plan, I plan on voting for the conservative and stocking my guns and ammo.
You think Romney wants Iran to have weapons of mass destruction?
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Why not. He isn’t pro Israel at all. He thinks he is part of the ‘true Israel’.
That;s why we need to reinforce Congress and the Senate.
Virgil Goode won’t accomplish that
Your pissing your vote away.
As a confessional Lutheran pastor, I am as opposed to Mormonism as anyone. It is a false, made-up religion. It teaches wrongly about the person of Christ and the Trinity, thus putting it outside the bounds of Christianity. Mormonism will send people to hell.
That doesn't mean I won't vote for a Mormon, though, for political office. As long as the candidate does not use his office to advance the false teachings of Mormonism, I'm OK with it. Neither Gov. Romney nor his father, the previous Gov. Romney, from all I've read, ever used their political offices to try to establish Mormon religious distinctives.
Most all politicians I've ever voted for, unless they're confessional Lutherans, I do not agree with theologically. That doesn't mean they can't do a good job politically.
I can vote for conservative candidates down ticket and still not vote for Romney.
I knew some of the Romney family when I lived in Utah and I would never trust a single one of them and most of them were MORE honest than Mittens.
Well, I am voting down ticket and holding the nominees feet to the fire.
Why dilute it?
Your opinion. My vote is between me and God and I will NEVER vote for a Mormon, I know too much.
Nor will I ever vote for a liberal like Romney, I have standards. I will no longer be a pawn for the idiots in the GOP who expect me to vote for who the put up. I did that for almost 20 years - no more.
It is a line in the sand with Romney.
I apologize. Something hit me the wrong way and I spoke without thinking.
I understand what you’re saying. Yes, a Republican RINO wins and most people think it’s great and everything is good and they get back into their complacency. It’s disgusting.
We’re in a bad predicament with Romney and most conservatives are very frustrated.
Gee I didn’t know we were voting against Mormons.
You seem to be focused like a laser.
As long as the candidate does not use his office to advance the false teachings of Mormonism, I’m OK with it.
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That is exactly what Mormonism does. Ask Bob Bennett who was told to vote against his conscience by his prophet. Ask the 13 US senators and congressmen who went to Switzerland to ask for an exemption ONLY for the LDS church to their new missionary laws. I can document both of those.
As a former Mormon, I know exactly how their tentacles reach out and how an LDS POTUS will be used to promote their cult.
It isn’t diluting it at all. I am voting straight CONSERVATIVE ticket, not necessarily GOP since they are not the same thing anymore - not even close.
When has Gov. Romney (or his father, the previous Gov. Romney) ever used the governor’s office specifically to advance Mormon false religious teachings?
What do we think of Pentecostals or Southern Baptists?
We’re fighting Obama.
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