Skip to comments.Mitt Romney's Poll Surge Might Be Bigger Than It Looks
Posted on 05/15/2012 9:49:54 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The latest CBS News/New York Times poll shows President Barack Obama and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in a dead heat in the race for the White House.
Given that Obama has had a relatively good week and Romney something of a bad one, this poll is a real shocker. Asked for whom they would vote were the election held today, 46 percent of the nearly 600 registered voters surveyed said Romney while 43 percent said Obama. Given that the error margin is plus or minus four points, it looks like the race is all tied up.
Actually, Romney may be in better shape than the poll suggests. The same survey conducted in April showed each man with 46 percent of the vote while the polls from March and February showed the president ahead.
What is particularly interesting is this is a poll of registered voters, meaning it's a survey representing the entire universe of those who may cast ballots in the upcoming election. Thanks to things like "motor voter," there are far more Democrats in the pool of registered voters than Republicans and, unlike surveys of so-called "likely voters," many of them may not bother to vote. It is not too much of an inference, therefore, to think that Obama may be losing the countryand that's because he has failed to get a handle on the nation's economic troubles.
Unemployment is down from where it had been under Obama, to 8.1 percent, but that's not because the economy is creating jobs. It's because, as this simple analysis shows, large numbers of people have simply stopped looking for work. "In April," wrote Tyler Durden on Zerohedge.com, "the number of people not in the labor force rose by a whopping 522,000 from 87,897,000 to 88,419,000," which he says is the highest number ever recorded. The labor force participation rate, meaning the people who are working or looking for work, is now at 64.3 percent, a 30-year low.
With numbers like that, with Obama having wiped out 30 years of job creation under presidents of both parties, is it any surprise that 62 percent of respondents in the CBS News/New York Times poll "cited the economy as the most important issue in the presidential election"?
"Concern over the budget deficit ranked a distant second at 11 percent, followed by health care at 9 percent. Seven percent picked same-sex marriage, 4 percent cited foreign policy and 2 percent chose immigration," according to an analysis of the numbers conducted by CBS.
The response of the White House and Obama's campaign to the numbers has been to attack the way the survey was conductedwhich is really their only choice since they can't dispute what the numbers say. The president's deputy campaign manager, Stephanie Cutler, told NBC's Chuck Todd, "We can't put the methodology of that poll aside, because the methodology was significantly biased." When pressed, Cutler called the sample "biased."
Maybe so, but that doesn't get around the fact that 67 percent of respondentsremember these are registered voters, not likely votersrated the condition of the national economy as either "fairly bad" or "very bad." And 63 percent said they thought things would stay the same or get worse.
Equally disturbing for the White House, and perhaps the reason why the Obama campaign, its political allies, and its friends in the media have suddenly unleashed the attack squad against the former governor, is that this same poll found Romney leading among independents, among men and among women, 46 percent to 44 percent for the presidentstill within the margin of error but an indication that any bounce the Democrats might have gotten over accusations the GOP was engaged in a "war on women" has dissipated.
Team Obama needs a new strategy. It doesn't take a college degree to figure out that just about the only thing left is to try and make Romney radioactive, which means a nasty and negative summer is in the offing. It will be interesting to see if the same journalists and Washington "deep thinkers" who call out the Republicans every time they say something uncomplimentary will be as hard on the Democrats as they "go nuclear" on Romney.
Romney needs to just sit back for now and let Biden and Obama hang themselves, which they are doing a very good job of right now.
IMHO we have several options, none of which are golden.
We defy this SOB, elect a teaparty Senate and congress and deny him 2 more SCOTUS picks.
Yeah it stinks, but here we are.
My Barber/My Garbage Man can beat Obama in 2012.
People will be voting AGAINST Obama, not necessarily for Romney or any other GOP nominee. People are not stupid. Their college educated kids can’t find jobs, someone close to them has lost her/his job, grocery bills have rocketed up, gas to run their cars has rocketed up, Obamacare has stolen $500 Billion from their Medicare and their health insurance premiums have rocketed up, their house is worth 30 to 40% less, and their bank CD’s are earning 1% or less.
Obama loses by 50+ EV’s.
I have to be a little cautious. I don’t think they contact cell phones and that’s what most of the younger folks use exclusively. (that’s all I have, a cheap $30 Net 10 phone)
Yes they do. They randomly dial numbers within the area codes so as to contact cell phones, if I remember correctly.
Huh?? Actually, it was about the opposite: First Gay President vs. Liberty U. Speech.
Thanx, I didn’t know that. I got two such calls when I had a landline but hung up on them. I’ve not been called yet on my cell to find out who I’m voting for. If they call me then I’ll just press the red “end” button.
Voting for Newt or possibly Paul (even though I hate him) in the primary.
Voting Virgil Goode in the general.
I’m still praying for a war on the floor in Tampa.
FWIW, I left the GOP over Romney after a lifetime of active participation at local, state, and national levels (even being a delegate). Acutally, the GOP left me by pushing dog vomit like Romney.
“Maybe, just maybe, Romney wont be that bad.”
OK, here is my best take on Romney and I think it holds water.
Romney fixes things. This is what he has done for most of his working life. Bain Capital was about taking broken companies and fixing them if they could be fixed or dismantling them if they were beyond salvaging. He fixed the Olympics in Salt Lake City and maybe people don’t remember what a mess that was, there was all sorts of corruption and self dealing that had been going on for ages but when a bunch of Mormons got involved it all came out.
Either somebody had an attack of conscience, the Mormons weren’t really corrupt enough to pull it off, or who knows the MSM seized on it as a way of making right wingers look bad. But it was a shambles and he got it straightened out.
Esp. his Bain work may come in usefully. Esp. if he really does “enjoy firing” people who do a bad job.
Our Federal government is broken. Our “social security” programs are headed toward insolvency.
Now, unlike many other freepers I haven’t had my act together for my whole life. Social Security IS my retirement plan. 15% of my lifetime earnings have gone into it, not against my will really, but as was required by law.
I really feel like I’ve done the best I can. I’d like the “system” to be there for me.
I’d like our broken systems to get fixed.
Mitt Romney fixes things. Can he fix the mess we are in now? I don’t know. Will he try? I think he will honestly try, esp. if he goes in with a mandate to do so.
So, maybe that’s what the next 6 months has to be about, getting him a mandate to go all Bain Capital on DC’s asses.
Yes, it does. They had .1% retail sales growth last month. That is inflation adjusted. That is with a bogus inflation number. What do you think the real retail sales figure was? - 4, or - 6. Do you think people don’t notice?
I will probably vote Tea party down ticket, but I have no illusions of them doing anything but rolling over if Romney gets in. They haven’t done much so far which is very heartbreaking.
Wasted vote in the general election.
Nobody knows his name.
Unemployment is at 8.1% higher than the 7.8% when he took office. Moreover, the real unemployment rate is about 15% (U-6) and we have millions who have dropped out of the work force, i.e., there are millions less jobs and a lower workforce participation rate. Foreclosures continue along with increased regulations that are closing businesses and industries.
Obamacare, forced down our throats, is more unpopular today than when it was passed. And we are already starting to feel parts of it now. The Catholic Church is not too pleased with Obamacare and its strictures.
2010: Establishes a requirement to provide coverage for non-dependent children up to age 26 to all existing health insurance plans starting six months after enactment.
2011: Increases the additional tax for Health Savings Account withdrawals prior to age 65 that are not used for qualified medical expenses from 10% to 20%.
2012: Reduces the benchmark payment for Medicare Advantage plans that cover 20% of all seniors.
2013: Imposes a 2.3% excise tax on all medical device manufacturers.
2014: All individuals must buy a government approved health insurance policy or face IRS tax penalties of up to $2,250 per family.
2017: States may allow businesses with more than 100 employees to buy insurance on their exchange.
2018: Imposes 40% tax on high cost health insurance plans.
Obamacare is now under review by SCOTUS. If the individual mandate or the entire law is struck down, Obama's reelection chances will suffer. And there will also be a decision on AZ's SB 1070. Obama has sued AZ, SC, and AL for enforcing federal immigration law. If he loses that court battle, he will have more electoral problems. And then there are the smoldering crises of Fast and Furious, Solyndra, Iran, and NK. All of these are "bombs" ready to go off. And an attack by AQ prior to the election would cap it all off.
Obama has hurt himself on social and racial issues. His Officer Crowley moment followed by a beer summit started his downfall in popularity. How many support his gayification of the military? Or his support of gay marriage--a loser everytime (save once) it was put on the ballot? Obama has proven thru his class warfare, radical Marxist rhetoric, and global apology tours where he bows and scrapes to be someone who is an outsider when it comes to understanding this nation, its people, and its values. His associations with Ayers, Dohrn, Rev. Wright, Van Jones, and Frank Marshall Davis are being seen in a new light given his actions while in office.
Poll after poll on the real issues of jobs, the economy, the debt, etc. show Obama trailing in every area compared to Romney. He is being seen more and more as an amateur and an incompetent. The bloom is off the rose. Hope and change can no longer cut it. Obama has a record and it ain't good.
“may even be unable to ge his own vote.”
LOL! great post!
I’m voting down ticket.
We just won in a landslide for mayor.
I gunning for the Senate next.
I think they’re referencing the WaPo story from 1965 that young Milt supposedly cut the hair off of an allegedly gay classmate or some such.
So we have one course of direction.
That $30k is more than what most people have left but they can remember when the media said that we where in a permanent recession when GWB was in office in 2004, 05, 06, 07 and they had real nice vacations and fat 401K’s.
The truth hurts, most votes for Obama where panic votes and people caught up in a cult of personality.
That $hit is over. Even the idiots know Obama ain't the answer!
So you’ll let a Marxist Muslim win a second term? A man who’d kill a baby that survived an abortion and wants Iran armed with nuclear weapons. Seriously?
They havent done much so far which is very heartbreaking.
Then get off your ass and don’t bitch and moan.
It isn’t a wasted vote. It is voting my conscience. I will never vote for Mitt Romney, I know WAAAAAY too much about him.
It is the GOP’s fault if we lose this election, not mine.
I don't think that "high school bully" story hurt Romney at all. In fact, it was such a ridiculous stretch at a smear job that it may have backfired. Meanwhile, from all accounts, Romney hit a home run at Liberty U., which should help him with social conservatives.
On the other hand, Obambi's "gay for pay" statement, a day after the NC vote and right before his Hollywood fundraiser, followed by the "First Gay President" magazine cover, went over like a lead balloon.
Yeah Yeah Yeah Yadda Yadda Yadda same ol’ same ol’.
They’ll roll over if YOU rollover.
A man whod kill a baby that survived an abortion and wants Iran armed with nuclear weapons. Seriously?
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Romney is the same. Mark my words. Nothing you can say will ever convince me to betray my conservative values and my faith and vote for Romney.
My faith means more to me than caving and voting for Romney.
Romney IS Obama - just paler and I’m not falling for the fear card or the lies that a GOP congress will hold his feet to the fire - they won’t because they haven’t so far with any other GOP POTUS.
“They havent done much so far which is very heartbreaking.”
It took DECADES to get to where we are today.
How long has the tea party been around? Two years?
It’s going to take DECADES to get out of this mess.
The Left plays the long game, our side gives up if we’re not leading at the half.
THIS TYPE OF THINKING HAS TO END.
Look at the victories that have come over the past few days. Lugar out, that gal winning in Nebraska tonight, we are making progress.
Anybody who thought 2010 would solve all our problems and we could go back to sitting on the couch was just plain wrong.
You don’t like Romney, fine don’t vote for the guy. But don’t expect to undo 100 years of cr*p in one or two or three election cycles.
Basically nothing’s been done yet, give up now an that will ensure that nothing continues to be done.
The Lefties will lie to themselves and to everyone else up until they realize that only mass murder will solve their problems, this has happened many times before. You can’t rely on the LEFT to fix a flat tire.
We’ve got to keep fighting, no matter what.
I think you Cwazzah,
It’s best to have a plan than pitch a hissy fit.
I think it holds water too.
You think Romney wants Iran to have weapons of mass destruction? Have a link for that?
Then get off your ass and dont bitch and moan.
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You make a false assumption. I have done much more than just sit here and bitch and moan. I even offered to run in my state and was told I was ‘too conservative’. That is the state of the GOP.
I’m campaigning for a REAL conservative, not a liberal RINO.
That doesn’t change the fact that the ‘tea party’ hasn’t done squat, nor will they.
When was the last time a GOP congress fought against a GOP POTUS on anything important? They will give Romney a pass like they always do.
Truth hurts, don’t it?
I’m not the one rolling over.
I’m all for fighting and I agree this has been a long term problem, however, we always say ‘vote for the GOP and it will be better next time’ and the next time is always worse.
I have a plan, I plan on voting for the conservative and stocking my guns and ammo.
You think Romney wants Iran to have weapons of mass destruction?
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Why not. He isn’t pro Israel at all. He thinks he is part of the ‘true Israel’.
That;s why we need to reinforce Congress and the Senate.
Virgil Goode won’t accomplish that
Your pissing your vote away.
As a confessional Lutheran pastor, I am as opposed to Mormonism as anyone. It is a false, made-up religion. It teaches wrongly about the person of Christ and the Trinity, thus putting it outside the bounds of Christianity. Mormonism will send people to hell.
That doesn't mean I won't vote for a Mormon, though, for political office. As long as the candidate does not use his office to advance the false teachings of Mormonism, I'm OK with it. Neither Gov. Romney nor his father, the previous Gov. Romney, from all I've read, ever used their political offices to try to establish Mormon religious distinctives.
Most all politicians I've ever voted for, unless they're confessional Lutherans, I do not agree with theologically. That doesn't mean they can't do a good job politically.
I can vote for conservative candidates down ticket and still not vote for Romney.
I knew some of the Romney family when I lived in Utah and I would never trust a single one of them and most of them were MORE honest than Mittens.
Well, I am voting down ticket and holding the nominees feet to the fire.
Why dilute it?
Your opinion. My vote is between me and God and I will NEVER vote for a Mormon, I know too much.
Nor will I ever vote for a liberal like Romney, I have standards. I will no longer be a pawn for the idiots in the GOP who expect me to vote for who the put up. I did that for almost 20 years - no more.
It is a line in the sand with Romney.
I apologize. Something hit me the wrong way and I spoke without thinking.
I understand what you’re saying. Yes, a Republican RINO wins and most people think it’s great and everything is good and they get back into their complacency. It’s disgusting.
We’re in a bad predicament with Romney and most conservatives are very frustrated.
Gee I didn’t know we were voting against Mormons.
You seem to be focused like a laser.
As long as the candidate does not use his office to advance the false teachings of Mormonism, I’m OK with it.
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That is exactly what Mormonism does. Ask Bob Bennett who was told to vote against his conscience by his prophet. Ask the 13 US senators and congressmen who went to Switzerland to ask for an exemption ONLY for the LDS church to their new missionary laws. I can document both of those.
As a former Mormon, I know exactly how their tentacles reach out and how an LDS POTUS will be used to promote their cult.
It isn’t diluting it at all. I am voting straight CONSERVATIVE ticket, not necessarily GOP since they are not the same thing anymore - not even close.
When has Gov. Romney (or his father, the previous Gov. Romney) ever used the governor’s office specifically to advance Mormon false religious teachings?
What do we think of Pentecostals or Southern Baptists?
We’re fighting Obama.
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