Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

New Pew Research Data Should Have Team Biden Sweating
Townhall ^ | 05/07/2024 | Guy Benson

Posted on 05/07/2024 10:24:02 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

A recent analysis published by the left-leaning Brookings Institution -- which highlights Pew data -- demonstrates significant erosion within Joe Biden's 2020 victory coalition, across multiple key demographics.  It cites "major shifts away from Biden have occurred among Black, Hispanic, and Asian voters. Surprisingly, Trump appears to have gained more ground among college-educated Black and Hispanic voters than with less educated members of these groups.  Equally surprising: Up to now, Trump has increased his support more among women than men."  All survey data should be considered with a large grain of salt with half a year still remaining before the election.  Things can, and will, change as events develop and the campaign unfolds.  But as I've noted on several previous occasions, most Americans hold highly developed opinions of the two major party frontrunners, each of whom is a president.  Public opinion about this slog of a rematch has therefore been remarkably stable thus far.  And the movement in support, compared to 2020, has been almost universally negative for the incumbent:

Via @LPDonovan, this Brookings analysis of Pew data (2020 exits & recent 2024 polling) is full of red flags for the Biden campaign re: their victory coalition. And the "best" news for Biden on the chart (Millennials) is an error that actually favors Trump:


pic.twitter.com/OfnQbWoKE9— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) May 6, 2024

Take a look at that chart.  Trump is eating into Biden's margin among quite a few groups, including dramatic improvements within communities of color.  Based on these numbers, Trump has closed the gap by double-digit percentages among black voters (25 percentage points), Hispanics (13 points), and Asian-Americans (21 points).  Looking at the far right column, the two "best" numbers for Bidens are typos.  The chart shows a 13-point move toward Biden among 30-49 year olds (roughly Millennials) and a seven-point blue shift among Hispanics without college degrees.  In fact, the actual data shows each of those two cohorts moving Trump's way by those margins.  In other words, there should be two more red bars on the graphic.  The Brookings analysis even flags Biden's decreased standing among this second-to-youngest voting group:

Also significant is the erosion of support for Biden among voters ages 30 to 49.  This is the cohort most focused on family formation and most likely to become first-time homeowners, suggesting that the surging costs of child care and monthly mortgage payments may be reducing their support for the president.

Given how narrow Biden's 2020 victories were in a handful of critical states, anything close to this level of diminished support could well spell doom for Biden in November.  However: Two caveats, which are related.  First, the Pew numbers showcased above compare 2020 exit polls (which measured election outcomes among real voters) and 2024 poll projections.  This is not apples-to-apples, which brings us to the second point.  Polling popular sentiment is useful to an extent, but the whole game is who actually casts ballots.  As we have shown over and over again, Biden leads among the likeliest voters, while Trump will likely need unreliable and unregistered potential voters to participate in substantial numbers to erase that Biden advantage.  Democrats are very good at ballot and turnout operations.  Republicans are still arguing about whether they should even participate in things like mail-in or early balloting.  The latest data point underscoring this issue comes from ABC News.  Notice the difference in margins among adults versus registered voters versus likely voters.  Six point swing:

If this were just a single survey result, I wouldn't be beating this drum as loudly as I am.  But this effect is all over the data, and has been for many weeks.  I'll leave you with my related comments on Fox this week:





TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2024; brookingsinstitution; data; elections; pew; pewdata; poll; polls




1 posted on 05/07/2024 10:24:02 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

They are not sweating. It doesn’t matter to them at all, they got this.


2 posted on 05/07/2024 10:33:47 AM PDT by Gary from Dayton (Army Vet 1986-1991)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Dominion Voting Systems and Smartmatic USA have yet to chime in.


3 posted on 05/07/2024 10:34:47 AM PDT by SpaceBar
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Unless President Trump has, at minimum, a 10 point lead in ALL demographics ... Biden will steal it again.

A 10 point Trump lead would be very hard to steal.


4 posted on 05/07/2024 10:37:32 AM PDT by CapnJack ( )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

5 posted on 05/07/2024 10:44:26 AM PDT by MtnClimber (For photos of scenery and wildlife, click on my screen name for my FR home page. More photos added.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: CapnJack
A 10 point Trump lead would be very hard to steal.

Rest assured that they have their best people working on that.
6 posted on 05/07/2024 10:46:07 AM PDT by SpaceBar
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

later


7 posted on 05/07/2024 10:50:40 AM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Proudly Clinging To My Guns And My Religion)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

The big question is how is he doing on the drop box and late night ballot group?


8 posted on 05/07/2024 11:10:34 AM PDT by pas
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

It’s not the votes that count.
It’s who counts the votes.

Broward county FL used to be the masters. Remember how Brenda Snipes always waited until the last minute to turn in the numbers???

At least FL is in much better shape this time around. I think R voter reg is close to outnumbering D voter reg by nearly a million.


9 posted on 05/07/2024 11:48:40 AM PDT by bicyclerepair (Let's Go Brandon!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Biden spent 4 years as Obama’s house boy and now the left takes the bait and thinks he’s a president.

The crap in one hand and wish in the other and wonder why they get the same answer.


10 posted on 05/07/2024 1:56:58 PM PDT by Vaduz
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

There graph is actually wrong, it gave Biden a +13 on the 30-49 age group when The numbers say he’s -13.


11 posted on 05/07/2024 2:01:27 PM PDT by Truthsearcher
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

That’s great. Then neither pro abortion, homosexual and grooming supporting candidates need my vote.


12 posted on 05/07/2024 2:05:45 PM PDT by momincombatboots (BQEphesians 6... who you are really at war with.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SpaceBar

Thats what I’m terrified about.

They have their “Top Men” working on it ... Top Men.


13 posted on 05/07/2024 2:58:09 PM PDT by CapnJack ( )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: CapnJack

[Unless President Trump has, at minimum, a 10 point lead in ALL demographics ... Biden will steal it again.

A 10 point Trump lead would be very hard to steal.]


No theft involved. In 2020, Biden led by as much as 10% in the polls all through the election. In the weeks before, he averaged 8%. He won by 4%. In other words, the polls overestimated his victory margin by 4%.

Biden’s problem this polling cycle is that instead of leading by almost 10% all through, he is averaging a tie. Throw in a 4% bias in his favor, he is looking at a 4% loss in November. Note that Trump lost the popular vote by 2% to Hillary and still won on electoral votes.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

Bottom line is that defeat in 2024 for Biden looks as inevitable as victory seemed in 2020.


14 posted on 05/07/2024 4:10:10 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (My dad had a Delta 88. That was a car. It was like driving your living room)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson