Posted on 02/16/2024 5:30:03 PM PST by Kazan
The Book of Proverbs, Chapter 26, contains this invaluable insight: “As dogs return to their vomit, so fools repeat their folly. You see those who are wise in their own eyes? There is more hope for fools than for them.” Invaluable because, in connection with the Russia-Ukraine War, the passage powerfully illuminates the current debate about Ukraine’s future strategic prospects.
The past few months have witnessed the dog returning to its vomit in the form of any number of efforts to once again make the case that Ukraine still has a path to total victory in its war against Russia. In professional journals, on influential websites and across the full spectrum of media outlets, observers, analysts and pundits alike continue to inform us that, yes, there is a way for Ukraine to prevail over Russia, expelling the latter from all of its territory, including Crimea.
One might claim that these arguments are being advanced because the facts on the ground warrant them; because the shifting geopolitical and battlefield realities clearly indicate that the military balance is tipping in Ukraine’s favor. As Ukraine acquires more weapons (and more sophisticated weapons), it will inevitably achieve the kind of tactical advantages that will propel it first to operational and then to strategic breakthroughs, culminating in total victory. All that’s required is one more mobilization of Ukrainian youth, one more tranche of Western financial aid, one more delivery of American, French or British wonder weapons.
But the strategic, operational and tactical realities of the war simply don’t support any version of this argument. Ukraine is not prevailing at the tactical level — if anything, Russia’s advantage at there is growing rather than diminishing, as Russia outpaces Ukraine in adapting to the evolving realities of the battlefield. The net result? Russia not only remains capable of sustaining the kind of defense-in-depth that has completely frustrated all Ukrainian offensive efforts, but is increasingly able to mount successful offensives in places like Avdiivka.
In short, Russia is winning the war and there is little to suggest that any foreseeable political, economic, tactical or technological developments are likely to alter that fundamental reality. So why are we seeing arguments about an ultimate Ukrainian battlefield triumph, in the face of all the devastatingly contradictory evidence?
Well, applying Occam’s razor — the principle that “other things being equal, simpler explanations are generally better than more complex ones” — I would suggest that the delusional belief that there is a pathway to total victory for Ukraine is based less on evolving military or geopolitical realities than on a simple psychological dynamic, one best summed up in the concept of “commitment escalation.”
According to this concept, individuals or groups sometimes exhibit a tendency to persist with a failing argument, even as that argument becomes increasingly untenable in light of the facts. This behavior is marked above all by an adherence to prior commitments — sunk costs, as the economists might put it — regardless of their present plausibility or rationality. It is a psychological dysfunction.
Applying this concept to Ukraine explains the delusional belief that despite all of Ukraine’s devastating defeats and strategic setbacks, victory is just around the corner. Those who committed publicly to the view that Ukraine was destined to inflict a decisive defeat on Russia during the much-heralded but ultimately failed spring/summer “counteroffensive” in 2023 have irrationally doubled down on that public commitment. They have, in other words, escalated their commitment even as the facts on the ground dictate that this faith in Ukraine’s ultimate total victory is simply baseless, and that a rational person would adjust their views in light of those facts.
Put slightly differently, the more dire Ukraine’s strategic prospects have become, the more these true believers have felt compelled to concoct imagined pathways to total Ukrainian victory — despite the increasingly incontrovertible evidence that no such pathway exists.
And so, like the proverbial dog returning to its vomit, those observers who originally committed to the “Ukraine will prevail” thesis continue to return to their delusion — ever more manically expressed — that there is a pathway to total victory for Kyiv. But there isn’t. And the sooner policymakers and influencers on both sides of the Atlantic grasp this, the sooner we can get to a negotiated cessation of hostilities that stems, at least for the moment, the obscene carnage that has come to define this war.
And, as Romans 4:18 of the Christian Scripture would have it, we must “hope against hope” that this epiphany comes sooner rather than later.
The SHill quoting from the Bible. Wow, that’s a new one.
But The Hill also published this:
US support for Ukraine: The difference between victory and defeat
The west absolutely could ensure a Ukrainian victory if the political will existed. Collectively the west can easily out produce Russia in munition output supplies and logistics. If we had given everything wd have given them from the start this war would already be over instead giving things piecemeal so that they can only hold the Russians in check rather than win.
If Russia wins you can expect to see a rush for nuclear proliferation and the acquisition of other WMDs, which may eventually fall into the hands of very unsavoury or deranged religious regimes. If Russi wins the enemies of the west will smell blood and be driven into a frenzy, and then you will have war thanks to appeasing fools who think showing weakness and lack of resolve will show our enemies anything other than a green light to keep pushing further and further until there is no choice left but to go to war.
31Or what king on his way to war with another king will not first sit down and consider whether he can engage with ten thousand men the one coming against him with twenty thousand? 32And if he is unable, he will send a delegation while the other king is still far off, to ask for terms of peace.…
Luke 14:31
Can’t tell if your account is Biden’s secret account on FR or Mitch the Turtle’s secret account on FR. Either way it’s a very “swampy” deep state post.
Exactly
Yes
“Collectively the west can easily out produce Russia in munition output supplies and logistics.”
Russia can turn the hydrocarbon production ability that powered much of Europe (and which Europe no longer buys) into explosive force. Anything within two miles of a Russian front line can be blown to bits.
I’m getting the impression that eastern Ukraine would rather be part of Russia.
Am I way off here?
My Grandfather was born in Kiev at the turn of the last century but considered himself adamantly Russian.
Would like to see an article on what the eastern Ukrainians think.
The dominant language in Eastern Ukraine is Russian.
I think they only have to hang on until November.
No, I just have enough independent thought capacity to understand that just because the left is usually wrong they arent always wrong. Thinking the Russians are the good guys and that they should get away with this because Biden and co are supporting Ukraine is brainless political tribalism. Do people not understand how allowing Russia to win is going to send a clear message to China and other adversary states that they can use military force to attack our allies and interests without the risk of any meaningful response?
No US support other than bodies could fix this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZ8A95LpsRY
This guy gives a full explanation with some video.
Who said Russia were the good guys? I think you are missing the point. Flip a coin to decide who is worse, Ukraine or Russia. They are both horribly corrupt authoritarian states.
The main point is that we are the USA. We are literally falling apart and going bankrupt. We have to save ourselves before its too late. Not play arms dealer in order to make a few people super wealthy.
So how about we just escape reality and find another couple hundred billion for the laudnramat. Just to see swamp critters smile a bit again - they are getting snarly these days. Besides, we just print it anyway. It's not like were using actual real money for this.
You do realise that the vast majority of aid stays in the US because it funds US armament contractors to build updated equipment to replace the more obsolecent stuff that gets sent to Ukraine? It also encourages sales of that equipment around the world from allies who are now concerned with a resurgent Russia. Europe is actually bleeding out more cash to fund Ukrainian non military aid that does not benefit domestic industry but goes directly to Ukraine.
Collectively the west can easily out produce Russia in munition output supplies and logistics.
———-
Uh, No, even our Defense Industry CEO’s when gathered to Washington for meetings stated 2-3 years….Vlad never closed their factories, more than a dozen have been and are running 24/7….as we are witnessing….Avidivka just got whacked with over 300 FAB’s, in…one…day…AND Russia produces every component needed, self sufficient….Germany depended heavily on commodities and metals from Russia, as does the western aviation industry.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=orPgVI-P7eM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=orPgVI-P7eM
Biden has convinced those who support funding his proxy war we are funding a fight against the old global monolithic USSR threat that died over 30 years ago rather than some stunted kleptocracy that is a regional threat to Europe who refuses to defend itself.
Yes, which makes sending money, crappy weapons, and using Ukrainians to die even more immoral. In fact, the more you speak the worse it gets.
I’m getting the impression that eastern Ukraine would rather be part of Russia.
Am I way off here?
Here is an American volunteer talking about how the locals in Easter Ukraine wanted the Russians to win. (starts at the prompt)
https://youtu.be/nk2pBDEc6cQ?t=2644
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