Posted on 01/14/2024 3:43:07 PM PST by BigEdLB
The final Emerson College Polling Iowa survey finds 55% of Republican caucus voters plan to support Donald Trump on Monday evening, while 21% support Nikki Haley, and 15% Ron DeSantis. Five percent support Vivek Ramaswamy and 2% Asa Hutchinson. Four percent are undecided. Since the last Emerson Iowa poll in December, Trump’s support has increased five points, from 50% to 55%, while Haley’s support increased four points, from 17% to 21%. DeSantis held his 15% support, and Ramaswamy’s support fell three points, from 8% to 5%.
(Excerpt) Read more at emersoncollegepolling.com ...
Haley is the neocon/RINO queen.
Someone posted earlier a report that said almost 1/2 her supporters would vote Biden over Trump.
“poll shows an increase for DJT since December, Vivek is falling”
Could be a ploy. If Trump coms in at anything less than 55% the press will tout it as a disaster for Trump. If Haley comes in at 22%, 1% higher than the poll they will declare she has Trump on the ropes.
These polls do not take into account the Democrat crossover votes.
I applied the Des Moines Enthusiasm numbers to this poll, and got DJT at 69.5, Haley 15.3, DeSantis 14.5, Vivek barely a blip.. no enthusiasm
Trump’s caucus captains said they are on the lookout for Donk funny business. Every caucus has the voter rolls. I think Dems who try funny business by changing registration will be made to feel uncomfortable by the others. That is what they have to be aware of. With the caucus on different days this year the DJT people are aware of Fraud potential, and the Donks know they are being watched. Imagine 100 people at a typical caucus... Based on polling 65 of those will be MAGA Trump. You think a dozen FAUX Haley supporters who are registered Dems show up to change registration to caucus for Nikki, but plan to vote Biden in November anyway? It will be VERY uncomfortable. I think Donks will stay home drink cocoa or something stronger and watch CNN or MSNBC and call Trump a Fascist in safety.
The coastal pundit class doesn’t understand midwesterners. Meredith Wilson did however, as he was one:
We can be cold
As our falling thermometer in December
If you ask about our weather in July
And we’re so by God stubborn
We can stand touchin’ noses
For a week at a time
And never see eye-to-eye
But we’ll give you our shirt
And a back to go with it
If your crop should happen to die
Iowa Democrat caucuses are also Monday night, but won’t have a presidential preference vote. That will be done mail-in. Hard core Dems will be fighting for their own precinct and county offices. Guessing numbers, I’d say it would take 15,000 to 30,000 Dems changing registration to influence the GOP outcome. I don’t believe they could get near that many.
In past years, Iowa has reported the number of changed registrations on caucus nights, so we’ll know.
The donks I am talking making mischief about are not typical Iowans. Honorable Donks will stay out of this partially with the understanding that GOP folks could show up at the Donk caucus and vote for Moon Girl Williamson... Law prevents people from participating in both, but that hasn’t stopped Donks in the past from cheating
Probably less than 1,000 donk changes statewide, and in places where Haley’s numbers are marginally better... College towns, etc. Overall DJT’s numbers may approach 70%
I was and still am a desantis supporter , I still think he would have been a very strong leader
Unfortunately he came across robotic in the first 3 debates and that sank his chances. Was never able to recuperate
Vivik was never an option
Now I am stuck between Haley and trump
Who will bring in the independents? without the independents neither democrats or republicans win. It’s fact
I believe that the election will be played on 2 issues , economy (republicans ) and abortion (democrats).
I also believe that trump will have a harder time convincing independents
I think Haley will do better on abortion and I believe she is fiscally responsible
I also believe in her foreign policy
Her misdemeanour will bring in those wishy washy independents
I have laid out pluses for Haley over trump , so why am I still undecided? Because I’m not sure how mentally strong Haley is compared to trump vs the media.
Trump is a killer of the media and their pundits, this is what Haley lacks.
So I am truly torn between the 2
Desantis really was my guy !! He had the killer instincts unfortunately him came across as stiff and very robotic in the debates. That was unfortunate, I really liked him
I don’t want another 4 years of racist democrats
Will the number of independents who vote for Haley be greater than the number of Trump supporters who just stay home? There are many people who voted for Trump in 2016 who had never voted before at all. I cannot see those people voting for Haley.
I don’t know
But that will be negated by the republicans who don’t want a second Biden term
The turnout will be great among Republicans
Republicans need independents
Democrats will not be motivated unless it’s trump
.
.
They are not really for Haley. They are never Trump. About 10% of Republicans.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.