WHEN IT COMES TO UKRAINE AND RUSSIA, THE UNITED STATES INTEL COMMUNITY IS CONFUSING PYRITE WITH GENUINE GOLD

WHEN IT COMES TO UKRAINE AND RUSSIA, THE UNITED STATES INTEL COMMUNITY IS CONFUSING PYRITE WITH GENUINE GOLD 26 February 2023 by Larry Johnson 131 Comments

I am following up on my previous posts about the failure of the U.S. intelligence community, the CIA in particular, in providing an accurate, objective assessment of the war in Ukraine and what is happening in Russia. I no longer hold clearances and have not had access to the classified intelligence assessments. However, I have heard that the finished intelligence being supplied to U.S. policymakers continues to declare that that Russia is on the ropes and their economy is crumbling. Also, analysts insist that the Ukrainians are beating the Russians.

How can this be? The explanation is simple and shocking — the analysts are ignoring valid open source reporting and they are relying on liaison reports, i.e. intelligence provided by “friendly foreign” intelligence agencies without seeking corroboration. Specifically, it appears the United States intel analysts are accepting information from Ukraine and the United Kingdom as “pure gold” without realizing that it is fool’s gold.

The Russian economy is predicted to grow 0.3% in 2023 despite setbacks from unprecedented Western sanctions over the Ukraine invasion, according to data released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday.

Russia’s projected economic growth stands in sharp contrast with the 2.3% contraction forecast by the IMF in October and marks an improvement from the 2.2% decline recorded by the sanctions-hit economy in 2022.

If the 2023 projection is realized, it would put Russia ahead of Germany and the U.K., whose economies are projected to grow by 0.1% and shrink by 0.6%, respectively. The IMF is not beholden to Russia. It remains part of the U.S. controlled international economic order. Yet, it has concluded that the Russia economy will grow rather than shrink. Certainly does not conform to the dire prediction of U.S. intel analysts about a crumbling Russian economy languishing because of international sanctions. Why are the analysts ignoring this data point?

It is true that exiled Russians who oppose Putin continue to insist that the sanctions will work, we just have to give it more time before Russians scream. Vladimir Milov, a former Russian deputy energy minister and author of a Martens Centre report on sanctions insists that:

it may be more instructive to track a dozen or so “soft indicators” such as alcohol sales, divorce rates, shoplifting, spending on food, opinion polls, bank customer sentiment or tax revenues.

“Don’t look at the watch every five minutes to see if sanctions are working. Exercise strategic patience,” said Milov, who is also an ally of the jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny Well, here is one of those “impoverished” Russian citizens doing a magnificent job of trolling:

The truth is simple — Russia stands atop the world in being the major supplier of critical agricultural, energy and mineral resources that the West and countries in the so-called third world need. The only way the West could seriously damage the Russian economy would require it to destroy itself economically. Looks like Germany is discovering this fact with each passing month.

Then there is the tired meme of Russia being handed its ass in Ukraine. Although both Ukrainian and British officials insist that Russia is running out of weapons and ammunition, the war in Ukraine has revealed that the U.S. and Europe, not Russia, no longer have the ability to produce artillery shells, rockets and missiles on a scale that permits them to supply Ukraine while maintaining robust stocks at home:

“The first thing on the list was, everywhere, the ammunition,” Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said.

“If you have the equipment and you don’t have the ammunition, then it’s no use,” the Estonian leader told reporters on Friday.

And while Ukraine is in dire need of vast amounts of ammo to keep fighting, Western countries’ own stocks are running low.

“It’s a very real concern,” said Ben Hodges, a former commander of U.S. Army Europe. “None of us, including the United States, is producing enough ammunition right now,” he said in a phone interview on Sunday. I will reiterate a point I have made in previous articles — Russia is not dependent on Western resources to produce its weapons and Russia has a robust, intact defense industry that is working 24-7 to produce ammunition, shells, rockets, tanks, vehicles for its military forces.

Here is a data point, not specifically military in nature, that underscores the fact that Russia can chew gum and walk at the same time:

The Soyuz MS-23 spacecraft, which is supposed to return cosmonauts Sergei Prokopiev, Dmitry Petelin and astronaut Frank Rubio to Earth instead of the damaged Soyuz MS-22, has docked with the Poisk small research module of the Russian segment of the ISS, our correspondent from the Center reports flight control.

Docking took place automatically. From the Earth, it was controlled by specialists from the Moscow Region Mission Control Center, from the ISS – by cosmonauts. Even though Russia is at war with the United States and NATO, it is still capable of sending, on an emergency basis with little prior warning, an unmanned space craft to the International Space Station to rescue two Russian cosmonauts and one American astronaut. The United States still indulges the fantasy that it is the technological leader of the world but it does not have the ability to do what the Russians accomplished this week. Just saying.

There are two major factors that explain why the U.S. intelligence analysts are so out of touch with reality. First, the CIA no longer has the ability to recruit Russian assets that have genuine access to Russia’s decision makers in Putin’s government and in the military. What senior Russian military officer worth a damn would want to commit treason to serve a country like the United States, whose military is focused on providing gender affirming policies, embracing the lie that men can have babies and lowering recruiting standards to accept people who can barely read? Yeah, let’s give those CAT 4 non-qualified swimmers and shooters the keys to a Patriot battery or M1 Ambrams tank.

Instead of snagging spies with real access, U.S. intelligence officers are content to recruit Russian malcontents who live outside Russia in hopes they can dish dirt on Putin and his supposedly incompetent military. There was a time when the culture and system of justice in the United States provided an incentive for Russians under the Soviet system to take such a risk. But those days are over. The United States is locking up political opponents, quashing independent media and attacking conservative religious organizations in ways that bear an uncanny resemblance to the former Soviet Union. I believe the Russians are now in a stronger position to recruit spies from America’s military and intelligence community because of the crazy woke policies that are prevalent in the United States. We have created a counter intelligence nightmare for our Republic, or what is left of it.

Second, intel analysts are captives of the CIA operations side of the house. Analysts are now embedded in “Centers” that put them side-by-side with operations personnel. Because the CIA’s covert action teams are invested heavily in Ukraine (and their future promotions hinge upon a success in Ukraine) the senior CIA personnel running those Centers will not countenance some ANALyst (emphais on ANAL) offering up analysis, based on genuine intelligence, that exposes the King with No Clothes. Joe Biden and his corrupt National Security team do not want to hear anything about the rampant corruption of Volodymry Zelensky and his cronies or the prevalence of fanatical neo-nazies in Ukraine.

Simply put, the U.S. intelligence community is obsessed with Pyrite and is insisting that it is genuine gold. I think it is only a matter of time before this house of cards crashes to the ground and the search for a scapegoat will ensue to determine “who lost Ukraine.” You can be sure of one thing — no senior official responsible for this debacle will be held accountable. Some mid-level careerist will get the shaft or, perhaps, Donald Trump will be blamed. History teaches a critical lesson — a government built on a foundation of lies will not endure. The Soviets and the Russian people learned this the hard way in 1991. I believe a comparable day of reckoning is coming for the United States and Europe.

July 10, 2001, when Johnson wrote The Declining Terrorist Threat for the New York Times? A few months before 9/11 happened? /s That was when people understood regardless of politics, some self appointed experts were so wrong they were determined to stay wrong for life.

In Johnson's case when it comes to Ukraine, he is determined to selectively miss the point to created one sided narratives in Russia's favor. The goal of the sanctions is Russian war production, not food production. Russian agriculture is independent of material war production. Stores selling imported goods, clothes, appliances, parts have closed. Businesses relying on foreign parts from Europe have had to reduce production and improvise. China is not going to replace German machine tools or French electronics.Supermarkets selling food will not change this.

Russia's main tank plant can not produce new tanks and has to refurbish older models with sights and parts designed for even older tanks. They have fired so many cruise and ballistic missiles, the frequency of missile attacks and quantity per attack has dropped. Russia can produce 20 KH series cruise missiles per month, of much lower quality and performance than before, while Ukraine's air defenses are increasing in capability. Heavy machine guns and MANPAD SAMS have shot down Russian drones and cruise missiles.

Russia has used up so much artillery, they have had to cut back. Wagner used to be favored for equipment. Now they are getting the same as the rest of the Russian army they are complaining about shortages. Remember when Russia had inexhaustible artillery munitions, the cruise missiles and drones on energy infrastructure were to freeze Ukraine in to surrender, Kherson and Kharkiv were really failures for Ukraine showing they were about to lose, or that Ukraine had already lost by July before HIMARS showed up? Neither does Johnson.

Estimating Russia's economic outlook is problematic for two reasons. First, Russia stopped reporting key indicators shortly after the invasion started. Second everyone is assuming Russia is lying about its real economic situation. Gazprom previously announced than in March, they will cut oil production by a half million barrels per day. Russia can not sell what it is not producing, and for what it sells, everyone is buying at the sanction rate because the US and Europe control insurance and shipping. Russia can sell to India and China, who are happy to buy at a rate nearly at cost of production.

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