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Why the midterms are so hard to predict
The Hill ^ | 09/08/2022 | STEVE ISRAEL

Posted on 09/08/2022 5:58:57 AM PDT by ChicagoConservative27

In 1993, the Buffalo Bills were down 32 points to the Houston Oilers in the third quarter of an NFL playoff game. In one of the most astounding comebacks in sports history, the Bills defeated the Oilers by a score of 41-38.

Welcome, political fans, to the final quarter of the 2022 midterm House elections. Over the past several weeks, the punditry has morphed from digging the Democrats’ graves to hyping expectations of their over-performing.

Going into the summer, some forecasts had Democrats losing as many three-dozen seats. Coming out of summer, David Wasserman, the unusually prescient analyst from the Cook Political Report, wrote (correctly, in my view): “GOP Control No Longer a Foregone Conclusion.”

Except.

It’s still too early to tell. We are in a world of contradictions. Predictable and volatile at the same time. Settled one day, unsettled the next.

Most midterm cycles are easily defined by the political winds. This one is all about wind shears. As Wasserman notes, the climate has been changed by a variety of influences: the Supreme Court’s Dobbs ruling undermining Roe v. Wade, falling gas prices, GOP primaries that produced Trumpian candidates in moderate electorates, legislative victories like the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS bill.

(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: chat; elections; electionz; electionzzz; elekchunz; fakenews; hard; midterms; midtermvariant; noredwave; predict; steveisrael; stopthesteal; thefixisin; theshill; voterfraud; wasteofbandwidth
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Blah blah blah rat cheerleader
1 posted on 09/08/2022 5:58:57 AM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
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To: ChicagoConservative27

Because nobody knows the level of cheating that will take place.


2 posted on 09/08/2022 6:00:49 AM PDT by Sirius Lee (They intend to murder us. Prep if you want to live and live like you are prepping for eternal life)
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To: ChicagoConservative27

I remember that game. The QB was Frank Reich. Jim Kelly’s backup. The dude also had the biggest comeback in NCAA history.


3 posted on 09/08/2022 6:02:23 AM PDT by HYPOCRACY (This is the dystopian future we've been waiting for!)
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To: ChicagoConservative27

“The Hill” again, trying to push a narrative that there’s no real red wave. The Midterms are “up in the air.”


4 posted on 09/08/2022 6:02:30 AM PDT by Hostage (Article V)
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To: ChicagoConservative27

1. Feckless RINOS
2. Masses of disinformation. [see 1. cf. Barr]


5 posted on 09/08/2022 6:04:01 AM PDT by AndyJackson
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To: HYPOCRACY

I changed the channel to watch a TJ Hooker rerun, then flicked back to the 4th quarter. Glad I got to see that...


6 posted on 09/08/2022 6:07:01 AM PDT by HYPOCRACY (This is the dystopian future we've been waiting for!)
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To: ChicagoConservative27

the midterms are hard to predict because the media lies about every aspect of it including the polls.


7 posted on 09/08/2022 6:07:37 AM PDT by anton
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To: ChicagoConservative27

Midterms are historically tough on the incumbent party. Plus this president, who just delivered what most consider a divisive, dangerous speech, is particularly unpopular.

Inflation, gas, crime, illegal immigration, global instability; 70% of those polled say the nation is on the wrong track.

In another age the upcoming election would be a slam dunk for the party out of power.

But today we have The Hill telling us two months out its “too early to tell”. Fair and free my arse.


8 posted on 09/08/2022 6:08:22 AM PDT by skeeter
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To: ChicagoConservative27
Why the midterms are so hard to predict

Lying media and dishonest poll takers?

9 posted on 09/08/2022 6:08:59 AM PDT by RoosterRedux
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To: anton

They’re just focused on national polls. The real bllobaths are gonna be at the state and local levels.

There will be a slaughter at the national level but it will pale in comparison.


10 posted on 09/08/2022 6:09:52 AM PDT by HYPOCRACY (This is the dystopian future we've been waiting for!)
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To: HYPOCRACY

Bloodbaths


11 posted on 09/08/2022 6:10:20 AM PDT by HYPOCRACY (This is the dystopian future we've been waiting for!)
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To: ChicagoConservative27

Maybe true

Get people out to vote

The stay at homers are killing us


12 posted on 09/08/2022 6:11:26 AM PDT by Nifster (I see puppy dogs in the clouds )
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To: ChicagoConservative27

Saying the “GOP is in trouble” going in to the mid-terms sets the stage for mass voter fraud.

So when the final results come out, as in Democrat wins, the media pundits can say it is exactly what was predicted in the (fake) polls.


13 posted on 09/08/2022 6:13:34 AM PDT by Bon of Babble (Rigged Elections have Consequences)
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To: ChicagoConservative27
One reason people are reluctant to share their opinions is that the Democrats have created a hostile political environment. It is sometimes downright dangerous in some situations and to some people to publically disclose who it is you are supporting.

If the President thinks you are a threat to the Country, so do many of his supporters.

Your boxcar awaits.

14 posted on 09/08/2022 6:14:19 AM PDT by RoosterRedux
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To: ChicagoConservative27

Not hard to predict, The economy, inflation and crime are the major drivers, they don’t appear to be doing well.


15 posted on 09/08/2022 6:14:32 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: Sirius Lee

Ditto: that.


16 posted on 09/08/2022 6:14:38 AM PDT by boomop1 (term limits NOW)
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To: ChicagoConservative27

I hold to my opinion that there will be massive cheating and that the media now is simply building up expectations for “why the Democrats got a surprising victory”.

I don’t think the media is trying to persuade voters on how they ought to cast their ballots. The voters don’t matter.

I think the media is preparing to explain, on the first Weds in November, why the results of the night before “made sense”: it was Trump, it was abortion, it was Inflation Reduction, it was College Loans — all of these things helped Democrats and made the difference (it certainly wasn’t massive cheating!!!)


17 posted on 09/08/2022 6:15:17 AM PDT by ClearCase_guy (We are already in a revolutionary period, and the Rule of Law means nothing. )
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To: ChicagoConservative27

The election is very easy to predict: The liberals will steal the election and the eGOP will let them.


18 posted on 09/08/2022 6:16:17 AM PDT by CodeToad (No Arm up! They have!)
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To: ChicagoConservative27

GOP must be far ahead if the Hill is having a hard time predicting


19 posted on 09/08/2022 6:18:37 AM PDT by wild74
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To: ChicagoConservative27

Unlike in 1994 or even 2010, Republicans were not viewed as Nazis and Fascists as they are today, even if those charges may have been leveled against individual Republicans in the past. Therefore, unlike 1994 or 2010, when Republicans rode true red waves and captured 50+ seats, this time, fewer independents will be likely to vote Republicans, limiting the number of seats that Republicans can win to around 15-20 at most, allowing Biden to claim a much stronger mid-term performance than Trump or Obama or Clinton.


20 posted on 09/08/2022 6:24:52 AM PDT by nwrep
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