Posted on 10/28/2020 10:24:16 AM PDT by willk
Wednesday, October 28, 2020
President Trump has seesawed back into a one-point lead over Democrat Joe Biden in Rasmussen Reports’ daily White House Watch survey.
The latest national telephone and online survey finds Trump edging Biden 48% to 47% among Likely U.S. Voters. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Which means he's actually up by probably 52-42.
If that’s the national popular vote, Trump wins the electoral college comfortably.
If he’s one pt.ahead in the national vote, he’ll win the EC by a comfortable margin.
Biden has to win the popular vote by at least 3% in order to have a chance at the electoral college.
I am calling it popular vote:
Trump 51
Biden 47
Other 2
Undecideds break for the incumbent—the known vs the unknown.
That would be an easy electoral vote victory for the President—a sweep of all of the “swing states”.
Globalists are trying to tank the market.
I can’t tell if these people are deliberately using the seesaw metaphor as a backhanded gesture against Trump, or if it merely reflects their own childish state of mind—the same state of mind that typically produces fake polls and fake news.
My guess for election night (worth what you’re paying for it):
The networks call Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and maybe Florida early for Biden. They may hedge the calls with “based on our projections and models” or something like that.
This will be an attempt to suppress conservative votes in the west, primarily Arizona, where they really want to take McSally’s Senate seat.
Later on, they’ll have to walk back and reverse most, possibly all, of those earlier calls. But they’re hoping that, even if Biden loses, they can pull out a Senate majority.
I think you’re right. There’s no rational explanation for the current plunge. Supposedly because of fears related to an uptick in virus cases? That’s absurd; we’ve had similar freak outs over the virus several times before, and the markets didn’t react like this (not to this extent).
Face it, Dems. Your nominee just does not have the stamina needed to dig himself out of a hole.
I think they are about 1 week too late.
Predictable.
GDP numbers come out tommorrow.
Historically in Presidential Elections with an incumbent, when the incumbent is polling at 45%, the undecideds usually break 50-50. If the incumbent is polling below 45%, the undecideds break 90-10 against the incumbent. So if one deep dives these numbers Trump 48, Biden 47, 3rd Party 2, we get 97%. The remaining percentage is 3%, divide that number 50/50, and we get Trump 49.5% and Biden 48.5%. Either way, I am glad the Rasmussen numbers are stabilizing and Trump is above 45%.
Biden really is fighting for his political life here, because I’m guessing that after he loses, the Dems will pounce on him like jackals-in order to get the stink of corruption out of their hair as quickly as possible and to minimize collateral damage. You haven’t seen this yet because in some minds he COULD win.
I suspect that you’re right. If Biden loses, the Dems will throw him to the wolves. It’ll be no more good ol’ Grandpa Joe. They’ll have no more use for his sorry @$$ and will raise no objection to criminal prosecution of him and family members.
Oh yea they are supposed to be great numbers!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.