Posted on 10/20/2020 6:22:36 AM PDT by LeonardFMason
Welcome back to The Day in Polls. As we approach Election Day, we'll be keeping you up-to-date on the latest poll numbers and where the candidates stand.
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump continues to chip away at Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton's lead in the polls, although Clinton is still favored nationally by 4 to 5 points. However, Saturday morning's polls don't reflect likely voter opinions after FBI Director James Comey informed Congress that the bureau uncovered potentially new evidence in its probe of Clinton's private email server.
Clinton is 5.5 points ahead of Trump in the FiveThirtyEight forecast as of Saturday morning. FiveThirtyEight says the Democratic nominee has an 80.6 percent chance of winning the presidency, down from an 81.6-percent chance as of Friday morning. Clinton is forecasted to win at least 324 electoral votes to Trump's 213.
The Upshot's daily election forecast shows no movement from Friday, when Clinton was said to have a 91 percent chance to win office compared to Trump's 9 percent chance.
The Real Clear Politics's average of national and state polls shows some incremental movement for Trump's. Clinton is 4.6 points ahead of Trump as of Saturday morning, down from her 5.2-point advantage Friday. Clinton's average support dropped from 47.3 percent of likely and registered voters to 47.1 percent, while Trump moved from 42.1 percent support to 42.5 percent.
The Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project reported Saturday that Clinton enjoys a healthy advantage in early voting tallies, and is leading Trump by 15 percentage points among voters surveyed in the past two weeks. An estimated 19 million Americans have voted so far in the election, according to the University of Florida's United States Election Project, accounting for as much as 20 percent of the electorate.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsweek.com ...
What has changed is the Trump Campaign is FAR better at what they do.
Trump Enthusiasm is at an all time HIGH, Biden inspires NO ONE.
Go VOTE and make sure all your friends vote.
The oversampling of Demonrats continues.
The mass media and the pollsters are doubling down on stupid.
You can’t fix stupid.
Does this seems plausible or is it just happy horseshit to excuse his inability to accurately predict outcomes?
They really aren't stupid. There are still millions of Americans out there who aren't very politically engaged but yet want to "vote for a winner" in the voting booth. So they will vote for whoever they perceive is going to win.
These are the people that the pollsters are playing to. By beating the drum constantly that Biden is sure to win, they are hoping that millions of people across the country (especially immigrants who don't speak English very well), will just shrug and pull the lever for the guy that is expected to win.
This is also why local candidates plaster their neighborhoods with yard signs. Very few people pay attention to local races but when confronted with a ballot, they are inclined to vote for the name that is most familiar to them - usually the name they see the most on the yard signs - because they figure they are going with a winner. This is true.
The latter. Nate Silver is garbage. He knows (as many pollsters know) that the media simply wants the narrative out there and are paying the pollsters to produce the supporting evidence of the narrative as opposed to the truth. Nate Silver wants a paycheck just like all these other pollsters which is why they produce what the media barons want to see - overwhelming numbers against Trump.
FiveThirtyEight today gives Biden a 10.3 point lead.
Just doesn’t seem plausible to me.
Voter profiles change.
Trump will do better with Hispanics and Blacks. A few percentage points with each is huge.
New registration favors Republicans.
How do you poll the Enthusiasm Gap? In Bucks County PA there was a Trump car rally this past weekend that stretched 12 miles AND there were crowds along the road cheering them on.
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