Posted on 09/03/2020 5:34:54 AM PDT by lasereye
Back when Democratic Presidential candidate Joe Biden was rocketing past The Donald on the odds boards, we advised bettors to wait on putting their money on the challenger.
The prime-time debates, we reckoned, would be the reckoning, where payouts on Basement Joe would skyrocket.
But an interesting thing happened on the way to the debates: Joe’s lead has collapsed entirely. Trump is now tied with or leading the Democrat at every major Vegas election sportsbook:
2020 Presidential Election Odds Bovada: Donald Trump -110 Joe Biden -110
BetOnline: Donald Trump -120 Joe Biden +100 (EVEN)
MyBookie: Donald Trump -140 Joe Biden +110
The obvious reasons for the shift are the convention ratings (the RNC had 25 million more viewers than the DNC) and the Mostly Peaceful Protests™ that have been rocking swing states for seemingly months on end as the left continues to largely ignore the burned-out, looted businesses that the cameras – and the public – can’t.
Of course, even though you’re getting the best odds on Biden since he first passed Trump completely back in June, we still advise holding off on placing any wagers.
The 2020 Presidential debates, remember, still haven’t happened. And when they do, they’re likely to boost Trump further, making Biden payouts that much better.
Indeed, the current mainstream narrative is that Trump is primed to win yugely on November 3, only to have mailed-in votes counted in the weeks or months to follow that will, ultimately, give Biden the victory.
If you have faith in that – or that you’ll even be paid out in the midst of the ensuing nationwide unrest should that scenario come to pass – then Biden’s your man, and you should wager on him.
But again, not just yet. Wait for the debates.
If they happen, Biden’s odds will lengthen, earning you a better payout should he take the White House. If they don’t, Biden’s odds will lengthen, earning you a better payout should he take the White House.
As it stands today, however, Biden’s hefty national lead on the betting boards is slipping away. And so are his state electoral odds in the all-important battlegrounds.
Back in June, Biden was favored heavily in most of the swing states that matter. We did the math, showing you that – if bettors had it right – Biden would win the requisite electoral votes needed to claim victory and become the 46th President of the United States.
Here’s how the lines have moved since in the ensuing months, with today’s odds compared against those from June 12 (in parentheses):
2020 State Electoral Odds – Swing States Via BetOnline
Arizona
Democrat -120 (-140) Republican -110 (+110) In AZ, there has been a 40-point swing in Trump’s favor, though Biden is still the slight favorite to take the state. Trump took Arizona by 3.5% of the vote in 2016.
Florida
Democrat -120 (-105) Republican -110 (-125) Florida is interesting, as Biden has experienced a 30-point swing in his favor. Trump won Florida by 1.2% in 2016. Florida is considered to be the most important swing state for both candidates in 2020.
Georgia
Republican -220 (-185) Democrat +180 (+155) Trump has experienced a 60-point swing in GA, a state he won by 5.1% of the vote in 2016. Could a Stacey Abrams VP pick have helped Biden here?
Maine
Democrat -450 (-350) Republican +350 (+275) Biden has gained 175 points on Trump in Maine since the first tally, and he seems firmly in control. Trump lost Maine by 2.9% of the vote in 2016.
Michigan
Democrat -200 (-190) Republican +160 (+160) Trump has benefited from a 10-point swing in Michigan, a state he won by 0.3% of the vote in 2016, helping turn the election his way. Biden is losing ground in MI on the betting boards and at the polls (particularly among black voters), but the odds don’t seem to have fully caught up with the “boots on the ground” – or lack thereof – in the state.
Minnesota
Democrat -180 (-300) Republican +150 (+240) The President’s Minnesota boost is palpable, as the Trump 2020 campaign has seen a shift of 210 points in its favor. Trump lost MN by 1.5% of the vote in 2016, but as in MI, his campaign is polling in a virtual tie with Biden per many polls and is leading in others.
Nevada
Democrat -350 (-350) Republican +275 (+275) Trump lost NV by 2.4% of the vote in 2016. Biden still seems comfortably in the lead, and the Nevada betting odds haven’t budged an iota since they were first posted.
New Hampshire
Democrat -240 (-230) Republican +190 (+190) Trump lost NH by 0.3% of the vote in 2016, making the state firmly in play. However, the betting odds favor Biden by 10 more points than they did before all the rioting and protesting hit the streets.
North Carolina
Republican -145 (-120) Democrat +115 (-110) Trump won NC by 3.6% in 2016, and he looks primed to win the state again in 2020. The odds have experienced a 50-point shift in Trump’s favor there.
Pennsylvania
Democrat -155 (-210) Republican +125 (+170) Trump took PA by 0.7% of the vote in the 2016 election, securing his victory. While Biden was favored heavily early on, his odds have been slipping, and the Trump campaign has been the beneficiary of a 100-point swing so far.
Wisconsin
Democrat -140 (-140) Republican +110 (+110) The odds in WI are flat, though the Kenosha riots should change that in one way or another soon enough. But which way will they go? The 2020 Presidential election could hinge on outcome. Trump won Wisconsin by 0.7% in 2016.
Overall, according to these odds, Trump has gained on Biden substantially in most swing states, earning a net 255-point boost at the Vegas political betting boards.
The caveat, though, is that Florida is the only state showing an actual switch, and it’s currently going left. That’s a big deal, of course, but with both candidates in the negative now as then, there’s not a clear favorite.
Nevertheless, we hope this has clarified some very muddy waters for all you election bettors out there.
My theory is that Trump will win. Period. The intelligentsia thought he’d lose last time. Wrongo. This time we’ve seen him kick ass and people that weren’t for him last time are convinced about his promises kept. The rest of the people. F em.
The reason the fake polls shoe Biden winning is that they need that cover when they attempt to steal the election as results come in showing a huge Trump victory.
I’ll put 10 C notes on Trump please.
They’re running Biden ads in the Dem Gimme State of Maryland.
wtf?
The pollsters will try to portray this campaign as a horserace all the way to election day. They need to justify their existence and stay in business.
Las Vegas oddsmakers are not dealing in just numbers, they are dealing in dollars.
I trust the oddsmakers way more than the pollsters.
I voted yesterday and will vote Nov. 3 (unless I am dead). Pres. Thomas Dewey said not to assume things are in the bag until they are actually in the bag.
Regarding this: “ ... only to have mailed-in votes counted in the weeks or months to follow that will, ultimately, give Biden the victory ... followed by unrest.”
The Constitution and FEDERAL election law have very specific dates for the appointment, by each state, of electors for the Electoral college, by date certain, and the Electoral college SHALL vote by date certain.
The Dems have already written their filings for courts in 50 states and the USSC to request the election be extended until “all votes are counted, it’s only fair and just that way.”
They will fight this election in the courts, again, and forever, and will try to taint Trump’s second term as illegitimate.
Unrest (paid and sponsored) will continue and it’ll get ugly. Dems have no interest in the peaceful transfer of power unless is is transferred TO them.
I suspect if the “polls” are showing Trump with either a “slight lead” or tied with Biden, he has a massive lead over Biden.
1. Trump supporters do not answer polls.
2. 2016, polls showing Hillary having a 90% chance of winning on the day of the election.
It would be nice if someone explained what these numbers mean.
Was watching the smirking fool Chris Stirewalt last night. He was going on and on about the problems Trump has having lost the suburban Republican vote. He lost his smirk when he was challenged on having said the same thing in the past.
He’s going to win big. Far bigger than even most of the “reasonable” pundits think.
I don’t mean a landslide, which would require NY, CA, IL, and some other states, but I mean mid 300s EV and win the popular vote.
If blacks vote Trump at only HALF the rate of their approval (25-30%) Trump will get 12-15% black vote; but every poll is showing that’s just the start, and that another 3-8% will stay home and/or Kanye will get 1%-2%. This means Demented Perv Biteme will be around 75-76% black vote.
Cankles lost with 88%.
Then there are the yuts. My analysis of closed universities (USC, Pomona, Mich State, Harvard, Princeton, UNC, the whole U Cal and Cal State systems are 100% closed) is that at minimum the 18-24 year old DemoKKKrat vote (after adjusting for Rs) will be down by 30% from 2018 levels because there won’t be any on campus mobilizing or organizing or peer pressure.
Let’s put real #S to these %. For blacks, you’re looking at a Trump vote of +2m-3m (and a decline in Biteme’s vote by that much); then for the stay at homes another 1-2m will stay home OVER AND ABOVE 2016. For the Yuts, that 30% decline in DemoKKKrat #S will be 1 to 1.5m.
Before a single 2016 Gary Johnson voter, Cankles voter, or non-voter now votes for Trump—and there will be at least 1m of these, Trump starts up by 2-3m over his 2016 level and Biteme starts down 5-6m from Cankles’ 2016 level.
Worse than that: the pollsters STILL haven’t actually factored in the shift in black votes (even 5-10% is huge) and none of them have factored in a 30% decline in D students voting cuz all the campuses are closed.
Student turnout will resemble 2012, not 2018.
In 2016, the odds in Vegas were 200-1 for Hillary.
I was very close to placing a large bet for Trump but it seemed risky considering my status at that time.
Perhaps the “media polls” have factored in the coming massive mail-in voter fraud.
Just curious.
ML/NJ
At my offshore, it is Trump -115; Biden -105. So Trump is favored by bettors, but not overwhelmingly.
In proposition betting, the prop considered most likely by bettors is that Trump wins by 60-99 electoral votes.
The reason the fake polls shoe Biden winning is that they need that cover when they attempt to steal the election as results come in showing a huge Trump victory.
* * *
This!
Oh, you’ll vote if you’re dead, all right, but you’ll vote Democrat.
I don’t know the answer to that. Unfortunately this year that may be a relevant question.
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