Trumps on the phone right now with Zelensky, like, By any chance, has Mike Bloomberg ever leaned on any of your prosecutors?
And then, before he can answer: Because Ive got the next shipment of military aid right here and I just want to know how soon I should send it out.
The sudden decline of Joe Biden and the sudden rise of Mike Bloomberg still hasnt quite reached the point where Bloomy has been able to pass him in any national polls. He got close in a Quinnipiac poll taken after Iowa and before New Hampshire, finishing with 15 percent versus Bidens 17 percent. (Bernie led with 25 percent.) Todays new one from Morning Consult pushes him a tiny bit closer, just one thin point behind Joe. And remember that Bloomberg has nothing on the line next week in Nevada whereas Bidens likely to suffer another dismal defeat.
Theres every reason to believe Biden will slip to third nationally after that state votes. If not before.
That 18 percent is the highest number Bloombergs recorded in any national poll since entering the race. And contrary to expectations, the moderate lane hasnt gotten more crowded for him since New Hampshire, despite the strong second-place finish by Pete Buttigieg and the strong third-place finish by Amy Klobuchar. Mayor Pete was steady in Morning Consults at 11 percent before and after NH while Klobuchar rose just two points, from three to five percent.
Bloombergs still five points back of Biden in the RCP polling average as I write this. But in the FiveThirtyEight polling average, hes only slightly more than a point behind, at 15.3 percent versus Bidens 16.5. Sanders is the unquestioned national leader at an underwhelming 23 percent.
This is where I remind you that next Wednesday night will bring us a *hugely* consequential pre-Nevada debate, not just because it may affect the outcome in that state (remember how important Klobuchars last debate performance was to her surge in New Hampshire) but because its the first one in which Bloomberg will participate. The DNC bent the rules to include him in it, dispensing with the requirements that candidates meet a certain threshold of donations in order to qualify. Lefties were understandably irate at that, especially since Bloombergs not even on the ballot in Nevada. But we are where we are, and every candidate onstage will have strong reasons to go nuclear on him. Biden, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar need to blow him up to clear the moderate lane on Super Tuesday. Bernie needs to blow him up to clear his path to the nomination. And Warren well, Warrens done, but she can at least get her moneys worth from her remaining time as a candidate by slaughtering a billionaire whos bidding to buy his way to the nomination.
Who knows? If she stands out in unloading on him, she might even get a last-minute second look from progressives.
If I were Bloomy, Id take it all in stride. Ill defend my record but I refuse to hit back at a fellow Democrat when together were facing a threat as grave as Donald Trump. Thats been Bloombergs strategy all along with his colossal advertising binge: Hes used it to introduce himself to voters but also to attack Trump, not the rest of the field, which is a smart way to bolster his dubious Democratic cred, to elevate himself beyond the petty squabbling of the primary race, and to appeal to the id of Americas anti-Trump majority. Hes doing it on social media too. And Trump, for whatever strange reason, continues to indulge him in it:
Mini Mike Bloomberg is a LOSER who has money but cant debate and has zero presence, you will see. He reminds me of a tiny version of Jeb Low Energy Bush, but Jeb has more political skill and has treated the Black community much better than Mini! https://t.co/qIef5VhjDr
Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 13, 2020
Mini Mike is a 54 mass of dead energy who does not want to be on the debate stage with these professional politicians. No boxes please. He hates Crazy Bernie and will, with enough money, possibly stop him. Bernies people will go nuts!
Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 13, 2020
To which Bloomberg replied:
.@realDonaldTrump we know many of the same people in NY. Behind your back they laugh at you & call you a carnival barking clown. They know you inherited a fortune & squandered it with stupid deals and incompetence.
I have the record & the resources to defeat you. And I will. https://t.co/fO4azmZaUg
Mike Bloomberg (@MikeBloomberg) February 13, 2020
Trump should be giving Sanders free press right now, not Bloomberg. Bloombergs pitch, fundamentally, is Ill punch the bully in the face and then use my campaign Death Star to turn him into Alderaan. Its a message thatll work on a lot of voters who dislike the president, especially those towards the center:
I have no opinion on my preferred candidate at the moment but Bloomberg has *nailed* Trump's existential fear and is taking aim like a missile. It's glorious 🔥😂 https://t.co/Kmln4ynsCF
Asha Rangappa (@AshaRangappa_) February 13, 2020
The more Democrats become convinced that Bloomberg gets under Trumps skin in a special way, the more interested in him theyll be. Back to the Morning Consult poll, though. Heres what happened when they asked the fateful electability question, Who do you think has the best chance of beating Trump in November?
Catastrophic for Biden, especially since hes also down among his base of black voters. Black Dems are now more likely to say Bernie has the best chance of beating Trump than Biden, 32/21, a number that may mean doomsday in South Carolina. And no, New Hampshire didnt do much to help Buttigieg or Klobuchar on this score either. Mayor Pete rose two points on electability, to eight percent, while Klobuchar also rose two points, to just three percent. If youre looking for reasons to be bullish on Bloomberg, this data is it. The other three candidates in the center are either dropping like a rock in terms of electability or gaining no altitude. If this perception of Bloomys viability holds on Super Tuesday a big if, given the debates to come Id expect him to stand out in his lane.
In lieu of an exit question, go read this thread about how Bloomberg shrewdly and cynically deploys his unlimited financial resources to buy friends and allies, endorsements and flattering media coverage, and God knows what else in politics. If he doesnt win the nomination it really will be proof that elections cant be bought. If it cant be done with his scratch then it cant be done, period.