John Merrill officially announces run for U.S. Senate

WSFA Television ^ | June 25, 2019 | WSFA Staff

[Jim Robinson]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8SCorW9r_Is&list=RDSDqTENtNvKQ&index=6

[ScottinVA]

So many “ifs.”’

Moore lost because he was a horrid candidate with a past he failed to defend, even during a “friendly” interview.

We need that seat back... for God’s sake, AMERICA needs that seat back. The balance of the Senate is far too precarious to bet it all on a at-best 50-50 prospect of winning in an R+28 state.

[ScottinVA]

“That is a LIE! I said why didn’t Moore challenge in court the sworn affidavits from women who said they were sexually assaulted.”

Ditto. Moore insisted he was going to drag those accusers into court to clear his name, but never did. I’m curious as to why he didn’t.

[DiogenesLamp]

Moore lost because he was a horrid candidate with a past he failed to defend, even during a “friendly” interview.

If he was a "horrid" candidate, why did he get more votes than Richard Shelby, who is the other Senator from Alabama?

I know you want to believe what you have had people repeating to you constantly, but you need to think for yourself and stop buying into assertions that are without merit.

Moore was a perfectly good candidate until the media-weapon and Republican backstabbing did him in.

The balance of the Senate is far too precarious to bet it all on a at-best 50-50 prospect of winning in an R+28 state.

How do you get your 50-50 number? What methodology did you use to come up with that value? Sounds like a wild @$$ed guess to me.

Let me show you my math.

Donald Trump received 1.3 million votes in 2016. He will get either that or more in 2020.

Doug Jones got 670,000 votes in 2017. The differential between him and Trump is 630,000 votes.

Alabama Republicans would have to give 1.3 million votes to Donald Trump, and then 630,000 of those people would have to refuse to vote for Moore.

Do you really believe that half of Trump's voters are going to toss the race to the Democrat because they hate Moore?

I give that 100-1 odds of happening. (Since we are pulling numbers out of our @$$.)

If Moore wins the nomination, he wins period. He takes the whole enchilada. Losing is a virtual impossibility.

[Political Junkie Too]

Moore insisted he was going to drag those accusers into court to clear his name, but never did. I’m curious as to why he didn’t.

Washington Times (4/10/18): Roy Moore countersues sexual misconduct accuser Leigh Corfman for defamation

The Hill (4/10/18): Roy Moore sues accuser for defamation

UPI (4/30/18): Roy Moore sues three accusers, citing 'political conspiracy'

Interesting blog from May 2018: Some in the media are dismissing Roy Moore's lawsuit against those who accused him of sexual impropriety, but it could point to election irregularities, even crimes

-PJ

[going hot]

Do you really think half of Alabama's Trump voters are gonna split their ticket?

Just for clarification, how was it he lost the last go 'round?

[ScottinVA]

If he was a "horrid" candidate, why did he get more votes than Richard Shelby, who is the other Senator from Alabama?

Immaterial. He got fewer than Doug Jones.

Do you really believe that half of Trump's voters are going to toss the race to the Democrat because they hate Moore?

Entirely possible. Look what happened in Texas and Arizona... both GOP governors won by big margins last November, but the AZ GOP Senatorial candidate lost and Cruz came perilously close to losing to Beto O'Rourke. So yes... voters do separate and discriminate down-ballot.

I realize many here in FR want Moore on the ballot, win or lose... I got that. I'd rather have control of the Senate.

[ScottinVA]

Do you really believe that half of Trump's voters are going to toss the race to the Democrat because they hate Moore?

Let me answer that with a question: Did we think Moore would lose in an R+28 state in the first place?

[lodi90]

Let me answer that with a question: Did we think Moore would lose in an R+28 state in the first place?

---

He lost by around 20,000 votes in a statewide race and almost certainly would have won without his own party vigorously campaigning against him/suppressing GOP turnout.

Let me ask you a question: why do you prefer progressive Democrat like Jones to a conservative like Moore? Are you a Democrat by chance?

[Political Junkie Too]

Just for clarification, how was it he lost the last go 'round?

Here is an interesting comparison, rightly or wrongly:

Joe Lieberman lost his primary race in 2006, his first race since losing with Gore in 2000 (excepting his early Presidential run in 2004 before dropping out). In Connecticut, the Democrat primary turnout was so low that the far-left candidate won. Lieberman left the party and ran in the general election as an independent where he won. Lieberman retired at the end of that term.

The vote count is illustrative. In the primary, Lieberman got 136,468 votes, and his opponent Ned Lamont got 146,587, for a total primary vote of 283,055.

In the general election, Lieberman got 564,095 to Lamont's 450,844, with the Republican getting 109,198. Both Lieberman and Lamont each got TWICE what two combined got in the primary.

Compare this to Alabama's usual turnout versus the special election in 2017.

In the 2017 special election, Moore got 651,972 votes to Jones' 673,896, for a total of 1,325,868 votes cast.

In 2016, Donald Trump got 1,318,255 votes to Hillary Clinton's 729,547 votes. Clinton beat both Moore and Jones, and Trump practically tied Moore's and Jones' combined vote.

The take-away is that special elections and unusual primaries often have unique characteristics that do not carry forward into normal general elections. It's hard to use the 2017 special election as a predictor of 2020 election results when the electorate will be so vastly different.

-PJ

[DiogenesLamp]

Just for clarification, how was it he lost the last go 'round?

Are you asking sincerely, or are you just trying to make a lame point?

If you are asking sincerely, i'll lay down the dynamics for you.

1. Off year elections never do as well as Presidential elections. "Special Elections" do even worse.

2. Media liars convinced huge numbers of people that Moore was "creepy" and or criminal by constant repetition of unproven accusations, and usually with great drama and a "The Women must be believed!" presentation.

3. Republican party officials accepted these unproven accusations and cut off his funding, made a public show of sending Doug Jones money, Got on Television and told people to vote for anyone but Roy Moore.

4. Democrats engaged in quite a lot of election fraud in getting up to their 670,000 votes. People were bused in from other states to vote for Jones.

The entire national media propaganda weapon was focused on Moore, and few could withstand that sort of constant pounding. In a Presidential election, the media would not have had the time to focus on a mere Senate candidate to such a degree, because they would have been busy attacking Trump.

Huge expenditures of outside money from Liberals all across America were trying to win this so as to rebuke Donald Trump's election win, so they were highly motivated to win this, and they were willing to resort to every lie and trick in their arsenal to accomplish it.

Gloria Allred flew out from California to make a big splash presentation to make the accusation that Roy Moore attempted to rape her client, and of course this was shown on all the national television news programs.

Now we have had Kavanaugh, and people realized that the Democrats will absolutely make up ridiculous accusations against someone to win a political battle.

"Brett Kavanaugh accused of drugging women who were then gang-raped"

[going hot]

Them approximately 600K votes that sat out, will they get on down to the polls this time?

What will change their minds?

Why was it so easy to sway them in the first place?

Was the evidence against Moore that compelling?

Was his support that shallow?

In either case, what will shore up the base this time?

I ask this sincerely, as you can peruse my posts from two years ago and see that I was a stalwart supporter of Moore last go 'round as the voter's choice to run the general.

The heat is going to be cranked up to the max until the knob gets twisted off, so whoever is the nominee, better have an ironclad solid footing, with no loose ends or weak areas to cultivate by the media/rats.

I , for one, was underwhelmed at the final performance last time.

[going hot]

Everything you posted is correct.

realize, the last go 'round, with the entire theatrics designed to sway the uninformed voters, was a dress rehearsal.

Can Moore weather it this time?

[DiogenesLamp]

Immaterial. He got fewer than Doug Jones.

It is not immaterial, you just want to ignore the fact because it undermines your claim that he was a "horrid" candidate.

The numbers prove quite accurately that he was a perfectly fine candidate that was subjected to a level of attack that has never been seen before 2017 for a single Senate race.

Entirely possible. Look what happened in Texas and Arizona... both GOP governors won by big margins last November, but the AZ GOP Senatorial candidate lost and Cruz came perilously close to losing to Beto O'Rourke. So yes... voters do separate and discriminate down-ballot.

You are oversimplifying what happened in Arizona. Sheriff Joe Arpaio cost us that race by refusing to get out, and he split the Republican vote, so they ended up with McSally, whom many Republican voters didn't trust and didn't like. They correctly saw her as a backstabbing Rino in the mold of John McCain, and simply didn't want her.

You are also oversimplifying what happened in Texas. Not only did a lot of Republicans have it in for Cruz because Trump labeled him "Lying Ted" and viciously attacked him during the Presidential campaign, but once again, the entire Democrat party across the nation was working very hard to take out Cruz. They were highly motivated because again, they wanted to Rebuke the election of Trump, and they also hated Cruz.

Cruz would have done much better if Trump hadn't been so successful in spreading that "Lying Ted" crap. Even today, there are many freepers that go nuts when you mention Ted Cruz, and will start ranting about him.

And in both cases, it wasn't a Presidential election. The Republican turnout would have been heavily boosted in both states had it been a Presidential election, and the result in Arizona would have flipped.

I realize many here in FR want Moore on the ballot, win or lose... I got that. I'd rather have control of the Senate.

I would too, but I think people have just been dastardly to Moore, and he didn't deserve the treatment he got from his "allies."

I think whomever wins the Republican nomination will win the race, and I think 700,000 is about the tippy tip top of what the Democrats can manage in Alabama in 2020.

Trump is going to get at least 1.3 million, and whomever is on the Republican ticket will get 85-95% of that same vote.

[ScottinVA]

Let me ask you a question: why do you prefer progressive Democrat like Jones to a conservative like Moore?

That's a stupid, inane question, and you know it is. I want the GOP to win that seat back and Moore isn't the guy to accomplish it.

So... go ahead and back Moore if you must. I'm going to donate to Merrill's campaign and cheer him on to victory, because I like the idea of winning the general election.

[ScottinVA]

It is not immaterial, you just want to ignore the fact because it undermines your claim that he was a "horrid" candidate.

Nothing undermines that claim. Moore lost an election to a liberal dem in one of the most conservative states in the Union.

[DiogenesLamp]

Can Moore weather it this time?

I think so, but i'd rather not find out. As much as I admire Moore's courage in standing up to Federal Judges and the horrible propaganda assaults against him, i'd rather just win the seat without all the drama.

We will see if John Merill wins the nomination, and if he does, all this drama over Moore will become academic.

[going hot]

Infight during the primaries, support the nominee in the general.

[DiogenesLamp]

Moore lost an election to a liberal dem in one of the most conservative states in the Union.

Which *ANY* candidate would have done if he had the national media weapon system proclaiming him a child molesting rapist on National television for weeks leading up to the race!

Which *ANY* candidate would have done if his own party cut off his funding as a result of unproven accusations broadcast constantly by the media, and then had other prominent officials denouncing him and urging people to vote for anyone but Moore.

The slams against him were lies, and the actions of the Republican party as a consequence of those lies was just reprehensible.

This backstabbing had nothing to do with Moore as a Candidate, and everything to do with the Media-Weapon-System as an attack machine for Democrats!

Our people should know better than to judge a man based on what accusations the lying media makes about a man! You can find kook bitches all over the Democrat party who are willing to come forward and make lurid insane accusations against our candidates.

You've got to be a moron to believe this kind of sh*t, but that is exactly what our Republican party Officials did.

Well, at least that's the excuse they gave. I think the real reason is that they hated Moore, didn't want him in the Senate because he clearly could not be bargained with to make a deal to keep the existing spending party going.

He would have been a thorn in the side of all the "business as usual" types in Washington DC, and they absolutely didn't want someone whom they couldn't influence into going along with the existing patronage system.

[lodi90]

That’s a stupid, inane question, and you know it is. I want the GOP to win that seat back and Moore isn’t the guy to accomplish it.

---

The time to win that seat was during the special election. The GOP would have won that seat the first time around had the party pulled Moore over the line. I don’t recall you being a staunch supporter of Moore then. Why is that? If the most important thing is the GOP winning the seat then support of Moore should have been a given. It wasn’t, obviously.