Posted on 10/19/2018 10:22:45 PM PDT by familyop
The Breitbart News best guess estimate 18 days before the election is that there are a range of outcomes in which either party ends up with a majority in the House.
In the best outcome for the Republicans, they win 14 of these remaining 20 toss-up races, and emerge with a narrow five vote margin over the Democrats when the 116th Congress convenes in January, 220 Republicans to 215 Democrats.
In the best outcome for the Democrats, they run the table in these 20 “toss-up” races and end up with a 23 vote majority in the 116th Congress, 229 Democrats to 206 Republicans.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
Then follow the link to read the detailed information about each district, and do whatever you can to make it happen. Tell the people in your communities, or tell people in other discussions forums.
#JobsNotMobs
The situation is rough because of Democrat gerrymandering (crooked Democrat judges among other things). But where there’s a will, there’s a way. Get after it.
The latest polls show that he is in a tie with Democrat challenger George Scott.
Ping.
Thanks, SCOPA /s
Thank you. This is what we need to focus on. Doesn’t matter where in the country the tight races are. The software allows people to make calls from anywhere, and it’s very easy to send money.
And don’t pay attention to that stupid land-area map that shows Republicans winning. Land-area maps don’t tell you anything, because the rural counties are larger and more Republican. We don’t elect people by land area.
Even some VERY smart people are posting that STUPID map on Facebook.
Don’t be complacent. It’s a tough fight and we haven’t won yet.
L8r
Vote anyway, especially in those districts.
The Breitbart article is based on the underlying poll data. Perhaps it might be right on, however, I am hopeful that the data is missing something big.
The key variable is enthusiasm. The generic difference of 7-8 points does suggest something close. A recent Rasmussen poll has the generic about even. Do the polls effective capture what is happening? I am skeptical. Here is my gut feeling. I believe the environment is far worse now than in 2016 for people to admit they are for Trump or for Rs. Accordingly, the samples might have a hidden understatement from people who do not want to participate. I recall seeing a recent Times polling method that has a response rate south of 5% in many cases.
I agree with LS that we should be focusing in on actual voting to make a judgment. So far with about 15-16 data points, all mail in/early voting numbers have favored the Rs. More will be coming in each day. This should be watched. If Rs continue to overperform compared to Ds, then watch out - the results will be far better than the best scenario of this article. Also we have not seen the impact of the Trump rallies and the increased Trump exposure. Also the D lunacy is more apparent. Jobs not Mobs is a deadly slogan. Finally the R ground game (Ronna McDaniel noted they have 4X as many volunteers than 2016.) may have an impact. Also I just read that there is a strong outreach to Evangelicals that will be made. They are ripe for high turnout under the current conditions. I doubt this is factored in the polls.
Pretty amazing situation with a deluge of negative advertising that Perry has had to put up with.
The GOP is fighting back. Lets hope for a good outcome that will help President Trump.
I think something that is missing in all these polls is black and Hispanic voting. The economy is good now due to Trump. They will vote their pocket book. They have jobs now. When they are polled I suspect many give the politically correct answer but when they vote they will vote for their prosperity which is not democrat.
I was able to cast a vote for Harris in North Carolina a couple days ago. Felt good.
Disney is a shit operation.
No family should trust Disney.
I remember that poll from the 2016 prez race.
Featuring Mini (sic) Mouse, her husband Goofy, and their daughter Howdy Doody.
Mini was actually 30 points ahead and handing out character costumes to her pals on Main Street.
Too bad.
They all ended up in Nowhereland.
Thanks familyop.
Excellent analysis,
LOL......
Can’t wait to see how these p.c. pigs rewrite Sleeping Beauty
Brought to you by the same swine who run Gay Week and support Sharia.
Glad you liked it (smirk)
Bingo!!
Yours was a great contribution to the dialogue....very inspiring.
Here in Aus the lefties are already talking about impeachment for Trump. God knows on what grounds. There is acknowledgement that the Senate may be problematic.
Is the fix in or are they counting their chickens? One thing I know is that they work together and they are feeding this stuff to feed it to us via the news cycle!
Either way I hope ya’ll are getting everyone you know to vote. I am praying for a red wave! ~~~~
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