TOTAL HEAD FAKE.
He'll go straight to South Korea where he can inflict as much carnage as possible in the least amount of time.
Yep.
Seoul is target one. We will not invade.
We will find and destroy the command and control structure.
They do not understand this.
I don’t care if they are using cans with string. We will find it.
He'll go straight to South Korea where he can inflict as much carnage as possible in the least amount of time.
I don't see how it is useful as a "head fake." We aren't going to take our eyes off of South Korea even if he hits Guam. We've got lots of eyes, and lots of people who can see what is going on in all the potential theaters of war.
Unless he is crazy (and the jury remains out on this), he will posture while simultaneous trying to find a way out of this that allows him to save face and stay in power. Literally the second he makes a move against South Korea, Guam, or any Western target he is toast, and he would have to be absolutely delusional not to know this. So what's in it for him?
He probably thinks/thought that when they became a nuclear nation they would have the same ‘mutually declared destruction’ leverage that the USSR had, and that China has. In reality, he would have this leverage - if he were able to expand his nuclear capabilities to substantial levels that could not be reasonably targeted and neutralized by a conventional US strike. If he believes he is close to developing a nuclear program that would provide him this leverage, he will likely push forward and gamble on a non-response by the US. If he is not so close, and is rational enough to realize this, he will likely back down.
Very possible. There are 10K artillery tubes of 122mm or > within range of the DMZ and many of them aimed at Seoul. Even if we took out all of them in 30 minutes the destruction they would do is monstrous.
That was my first thought as well. If a preemptive strike is going to result in the destruction of your country, why waste it on Guam?