Does border drop mean Trump's tough talk is working?

CNN ^ | 9 Mar 2017 | Tal Kopan

[mandaladon]

Washington (CNN)Illegal Southwest border crossings were down 40% last month, according to just released Customs and Border Protection numbers -- a sign that President Donald Trump's hardline rhetoric and policies on immigration may be having a deterrent effect.

Secretary of Homeland Security John Kelly himself announced the month-to-month numbers, statistics that CBP usually quietly posts on its website without fanfare.

According to CBP data, the 40% drop in illegal Southwest border crossings from January to February is far outside normal seasonal trends. Typically, the January to February change is actually an increase of 10% to 20%.

The drop breaks a nearly 20-year trend, as CBP data going back to 2000 shows an uptick in apprehensions every February.

The number of apprehensions and inadmissible individuals presenting at the border was 18,762 people in February, down from 31,578 in January. It will still take months to figure out if the decrease in apprehensions is an indication of a lasting Trump effect on immigration patterns. Numbers tend to decrease seasonally in the winter and increase into the spring months.

But the sharp downtick after an uptick at the end of the Obama administration could fit the narrative that it takes tough rhetoric on immigration -- backed up by policy -- to get word-of-mouth warnings to undocumented immigrants making the harrowing journey to the border.

"Firmness pays," said Dan Stein, president of the Federation for American Immigration Reform, an advocacy group that supports vastly restricting immigration to the US.

[mandaladon]

"This is encouraging news," Kelly said in his statement, citing the increase in apprehensions between October and the end of last year. "However, since President Trump took office on January 20, we have seen a dramatic drop in numbers."~~~~~~~~Keep it up!

[mandaladon]

"Well, the bullies can gloat and preen that they chased the skinny kids off the block," said Leon Rodriguez, a former Obama administration director of US Citizenship and Immigration Services. "We need to understand what has occurred here. Poor people -- in many cases, mothers with children or children alone, fleeing intolerable violence and poverty -- have been scared away. Many of those are people with legitimate asylum claims that would ultimately have been granted had they actually reached ports of entry."~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Liberals reacting as expected

[Williams]

Duh of course. Versus Obama encouraging kids to come here and distributing them around the country with other illegals.

[Graybeard58]

Word is, that Trump eats Mexican babies.

Pass it on.

[SamAdams76]

There is still a legal process for Mexicans to apply for visas and eventual U.S. citizenship, is there not?

There is no other nation on earth that will allow people to just stream across their borders illegally and sign up for welfare benefits.

[UCANSEE2]

“The drop breaks a nearly 20-year trend, as CBP data going back to 2000 shows an uptick in apprehensions every February. “

BECAUSE.... it’s when they come to file IRS RETURNS.

[BeauBo]

It took a long time, lots of encouragement, expensive logistic support, and a sustained media campaign in Latin America for Obama to whip up the flow of immigrants that we saw.

Media savvy Trump has just been much more effective at getting his message out. Don’t come.

[pas]

I think it just means the flood trying to get in before Trump took office is done.

[Tammy8]

The O administration changed how they count apprehensions and deportations to make themselves look good so will be hard to compare going forward if they go back to the way they used to track it.

I can say illegal crossing was increasing noticeably until President Trump took office. Since he took office enforcement has REALLY been stepped up in my area. Border Patrol is taking back the 50 miles of border that was given to the Cartels over the years and we are seeing a huge difference. It will not be and is not easy but BP is really getting the smugglers out of the brush here lately. Lots and lots of activity. I am not seeing illegals travel through, I would imagine they know this country is now serious about dealing with them and enforcing our laws. Those that are crossing are likely being caught much sooner and those that get through have to be hiding much better. It was so bad for a while the illegals would just hike in as if they were on a stroll, not even trying to hide. It was crazy.

[MNDude]

My Mexican immigrant (legal) wife said she’s been told by those in the Latino community that many illegals are leaving the country now, particularly those with criminal backgrounds due to fear.

[Tammy8]

Yes there has been and is now a legal process for those from other countries to come here to work and a process toward citizenship. The whiners think it should be an easier process- would likely work much better if the illegals weren’t clogging the system all the way. I personally don’t think it should be “easy” for people to come here to work or become citizens. I think we need to do the thorough vetting and make sure who these people are and what their purpose is. We are far more likely to get people who truly want to be Americans and assimilate.

The worst thing about allowing illegals to flow in is when they simply walk in we have no way of knowing who they are, where they came from, or anything about their purpose in coming here. That has been terrifying to me and I don’t understand why that is so hard for open borders people to understand. Pretty sure they don’t allow random strangers in their home.

[DaveA37]

Perhaps most of the illegals are already here, hence the drop.

[Tammy8]

Not by a long shot...there was a steady stream trust me.

[Leep]

Word is, that Trump eats Mexican babies.

In Trump’s defense i would say he has to because Mexico won’t take them back.

[Gaffer]

I don’t see it as just tough ‘talk.’ I see action - lots of it and that’s why these illegals are so damned scared. I want them afraid, very afraid 24/7/365 until they leave my country. Obama threw open the doors for 8 years and now Trump is shutting it and he’s called in the exterminators to clear the rest of the house. Winning.

[Thibodeaux]

How is the number of illegal crossing total quantified?

[McCarthysGhost]

And if these “immigrants” were voting republican 70/30 would the left still be helping them?

[SamAdams76]

Well said. I doubt that any of the self-proclaimed advocates of illegal immigration - most of them celebrities and wealthy liberals by the way - would let strangers into their homes to take up residence and raid their refrigerator. Hell, many of these folks live in gated communities or mansions - which have walls around them. So it's easy for them to get on their high horse and lecture the rest of us. They will never suffer the consequences.

Ideally there should be at least a 5 year probation period before a legal visa-holding immigrant can apply for citizenship. They need to show us that they are serious about being an American and assimilating to our way of life. Before citizenship is granted, they must know how to speak English and be able to pass at least a high school level civics exam about our Constitution, our government and our history.

[Qwackertoo]

Maybe IF we’re lucky a few, (a lot I hope) went home to Mexico for Christmas and decided to not sneak back over this year. Probably more so the border states would be where they could easily travel back for Thanksgiving/Christmas while outdoor seasonal work is at its low . . . then sneak back over before Spring. Hope they decided to stay in Mexico and get in line instead vs getting thrown out and suffer worse consequences for their opportunity to return lawfully. Are they that smart?

[Shadow44]

Ask the Cubans.