Posted on 11/07/2016 6:43:11 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
Hillsborough demographics have changed. I think I read 37,000 more Hispanics there.
Sometimes I don’t understand the republican party.
On election day, Trump needs about 57% of the vote to overcome Hillary’s Hillsboro early vote lead, assuming the total voter count is the same as 2012. 60% of 2012 numbers have voted in Hillsboro. Polling of election day voters in FL show trump +16, so he may well overcome this deficit. Of course, this is only to win Hillsboro, which probably is not going to be a FL bellwether this year given the rest of the early voting analysis done on Florida. In fact, the fullness of all the early voting data suggests that it is Trumps’s to lose on election day, which he won’t. That is the day he performs strongest.
But we'll see tomorrow. There's must be a reason candidates have done their own seperate GOTV effort- though it seems duplicative and wasteful.
From McDonald: “Colorado #earlyvote update via #APElecRsch 11/7: 1.8 million voted. Reps +6,803 (+0.3 points).”
Still waiting for official CO numbers.
I will take it.
NC is so safe:
“NC Race change since 2012:
Afr-Am -64,460 (-8.6%)
Other persons of color +36,926 (+44.2%)
White: +345,015 (+18.7%)”
Trump winning whites with college degrees in NC! NyTimes must be hating their own poll.
NC: NyTimes poll of those planning to vote on Election Day: 52-35 Trump.
Official CO report:
DEM - 34.82%
REP - 35.22%
I could wish we’d held a little better. Hopefully the polling giving Trump a big advantage with I’s will carry him through.
So if you work from this number, and you assume all other things are equal (which they are not) Trump wins by a small margin...
However, we know all things are not equal... if you work from these numbers out... Trump not only wins Florida, but he wins it quite handily.
Of course, early voting is not a direct correlation to election day voting.. but its hard to imagine a world where Hillary meets or beats 2012 turnout on election day, or a world where Trump doesn’t beat 2012 election day turnout.
Yep, NC is safe.
That’s the big question. How many Sander’s voters are going side with her? If I recall from the primaries, Clinton seemed to frequently underperform poll numbers. If that happens tomorrow, she will go down in numerous battleground states.
How in in the heck did this county end up with early voting? (rhetorical question, although I am curious as to who thought this was a good idea as it just adds confusion and chaos to the process).
Vote Trump Floridians!! We are counting on you so we can Drain the Swamp!!
I believe that at the nation’s founding, voting took place over a period of days or longer. That apparently changed as travel and voting became easier.
‘Absentee’ voting was popularized during the Civil War, as Republicans wanted active-duty soldiers to vote in their home states.
First I ever heard of the kind of early voting we have now was California in the ‘70s.
Federal law does establish a single election day, but courts have ruled that as long as no votes are actually assigned to candidates until that day, early voting is acceptable.
So does anyone know the internals of some of the major FL polls? The only one I saw that gave the weighted demographics was the Remington Research one which had Trump +4, and was using 40R/40D/20I as the expected turnout. They had Trump +13 among independents.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_Research_Florida_October_31_2016.pdf
Those guys might be onto something as right now its:
R 2472k [38.48%]
D 2560k [39.85%]
O 1392k [21.67%]
I have looked at some of the other polls on RCP and they are sampling D+6 or so but I’m assuming they re-weight to something a little more realistic for FL. I just don’t know what that is.
Regardless if Trump can win independents by even 3%-5% he should pull this one out.
Early in person voting for D’s is off nearly 100,000!!! My God man, that represents a drop of 40%!!!!!
You are kidding right? D’s are under performing 2012 lead by 40% in in Person voting. Reps under preformed their lead in absentee voting by less than 20%.
Yes there is one more day of data coming in, plus some absentee stragglers, but that’s not a bad place at all to be...
Good news is we have a 7,000 lead. Bad news is that in 2012 we had a lead of 20,000 and lost.
But, pot isn’t on the ballot, and I think a lot of indies will be Trump voters this time.
EXCEPT . . . everyone still thinking Ds vote D.
We have two polls showing a net +5 and net +7 to Trump of Ds voting R over Rs voting D.
That’s between 2,000 and 3,000 votes in Hillsborough alone, or enough to knock them back under their 2012 levels.
Then there are the Is, 400,000 of them so far in FL. If Trump is 2:1 as some polls suggest, he’s already netted another 100,000 votes margin.
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