Posted on 11/07/2016 6:43:11 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
Here are the RETURNED Florida Absentee Ballot numbers for 2016 (REPs led in this category by 79,000 in 2012). Approximately 75.7% of Absentee Ballots have been returned at this point.
79.6% of REP ballots, have been returned and 74.1% of DEM ballots have been returned.
11/07/16: REPs - 1,047,119, DEMs - 980,440 lead of 66,679 for REPs, 41.0% to 38.5%
11/06/16: REPs - 1,043,583, DEMs - 974,135 lead of 69,448 for REPs, 41.1% to 38.4%
11/05/16: REPs - 1,019,738, DEMs - 947,476 lead of 74,262 for REPs, 41.3% to 38.4%
For Hillsborough [battleground/swing county] (DEMs had a lead of 20,000 in 2012 early voting - that's absentee ballots plus in-person early voting):
11/07/16: REPs - 147,709, DEMs - 175,801, lead of 28,092 for DEMs <== Now reflects absentee + in-person early voting
2012 (ballots cast, not yet counted) Totals from Election Eve 2012
Absentee Ballot - REPs led by 79,000
In-Person Early Voting - DEMs led by 247,000
Combined Early voting - DEMs led by 168,000
Obama won Florida in 2012 by 74,000 votes
2016 (ballots cast, not yet counted)
Absentee Ballot - REPs lead by 66,679
In-Person Early Voting - DEMs lead by 154,691
Combined Early voting - DEMs lead by 88,012
Well this is my second to last Florida update. One more update tomorrow. Tomorrow’s numbers won’t change too much. Just a few more absentee ballots will show up. Probably less than 3-4,000 total.
The DEMs had a great day yesterday and increased their overall early vote lead to 88,000. They led by 168,000 on Election Eve 2012. So we improved by 80,000 over 2012!!! And Obama only won the state by 74,000.
Republicans will win the Election Day vote and win Florida. Sticking with my prediction of 230,000 and 2.5%.
Total (DEMs + REPs + INDYs) in-person voting is 3,874,942
Total (DEMs + REPs + INDYs) absentee voting is 2,549,653 (plus another 3-4000 tomorrow morning).
Total early voting is 6,424,595
Sometimes, when polls close in a state, the state will report vote numbers pretty quickly for early voting. So if you see big numbers for Florida soon after the polls close and then a long delay before the precinct vote comes in, look at the numbers and compare against our stats.
If the totals are around 3.8 million, that would be the in-person only voting. Compare the DEM lead 154,691.
If the totals are around 6.4 million, that would be the combined early voting. Compare the DEM lead to 88,012.
This can give us a clue to how crossovers and Indys are breaking.
Important fact: Rep leaning counties were not open Sunday for voting, but Dem leaning counties were - so I have heard.
Hillsborough County, Florida has voted for the winning president in 21 out of the last 22 elections. Pretty amazing when you think about it.
Obama won Hillsborough by 36,000 votes in 2012. With the big 28,000 early vote lead this year, Clinton has a good chance to win Hillsborough.
After this election, Hillsborough’s record will be 21 out of the last 23 elections.
Absolute correctly. Should have mentioned that!
We see the numbers, but did the RATs vote for Hillary?
Yesterday only 16 counties (Bay, Bradford, Broward, Charlotte, Duval, Hillsborough, Leon, Miami-Dade, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach, Pinellas, Polk, Seminole, St. Lucie and Suwannee) out of 67 counties had early voting.
5 were REP and 11 were DEM.
The 5 REP were mainly smaller counties while all the big DEM counties were open for 12 long hours.
Hillsborough county was open yesterday and had their best day of turnout for early voting, and it was not really close. Not sure you can read into that too much either way.
All the stats from early voting turnout for the Tampa area can be found here: http://www.votehillsborough.org/
That is the question. When the early vote numbers are reported soon after the polls close on Tuesday, we can compare who is leading versus who voted by party registration.
what is the indie vote ??
what the numbers ?
These numbers add up to almost 80% of the total votes cast in 2012. What do you project Election Day turnout to be?
These numbers add up to almost 80% of the total votes cast in 2012. What do you project Election Day turnout to be?
It is going to be close. I wish we had kept the DEM lead closer to 30,000. That being said, if Trump’s outperforms Romney among independents, he may squeak out a win.
The large turnout among unaffiliated voters in NC, puts NC somewhat in the same vote. It would seem to me a surge in independent voters is to Trump’s advantage.
Obama won 50% of the Independent vote in FL in 2012, going to be important for Trump to do reduce that.
Dems announced in 2012 they had won FL a few days ahead of the election based on early voting. They were right. They have not done that this time. Dems are now saying it is a 1% race either way, so I think they know they have lost in FL.
However, not happy about Hillsborough voting. It shows the Dems get out the vote effort may be better than expected.
CO numbers should be out within an hour. REPs will likely take the lead in returned ballots. Lets see.
The demographics of the Indys in Colorado who have voted, more men than women and mostly Whites, makes me hopeful for Colorful Colorado.
Yes pretty much only Dem counties open yesterday. Even though yesterday’s results were not great, the whole two week period of early voting and vote-by-mail voting has been beneficial to Trump’s chances in FL. I think he will win also tomorrow. 6.4 million voters have cast ballots. If turnout is 75% then another 3.2 million votes will be cast Tuesday. If turnout bumps to 80% turnout (entirely possible), then you’re looking at another 3.8 to 3.9 million votes on Tuesday. Gonna be a wild ride.
So far, 1,391,721 Indys/Other Parties have voted.
By election Day, could be 2,000,000 Indys.
2012 was roughly 8.4 million. People have estimated around 9.5 million this year.
In NC though, Rep vote narrowed the gap to D by 140k votes from 2012 even without independents.
That’s 21% Indys, of the percentage already voted ...
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