Posted on 10/14/2016 8:58:33 AM PDT by justlittleoleme
a new WBUR poll (topline, crosstabs) finds the race in New Hampshire is very close.
Democrat Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by just 3 points — 41 to 38 percent. That's within the poll's 4.4 percentage point margin of error.
New Hampshire is bucking a national trend. The race there is getting tighter, whereas nationally, Clinton has in recent weeks been widening her lead over Trump. The results are surprising to Steve Koczela, the president of MassINC Polling Group, which conducted the survey for WBUR.
"In the last couple [of election] cycles, the margin in New Hampshire has been about the same as the margin nationwide, but this poll is a bit divergent from where the national polls have been coming in recently," Koczela said. "Really, since the first debate, Clinton has widened her lead nationally, but the last couple of phone polls I've seen from New Hampshire, it's been a bit narrower."
In WBUR's last New Hampshire poll, conducted in late September, Clinton led Trump by 7 points. Since then, Koczela said, he sees support moving away from Johnson as an increasing number support Trump.
-snip-
"Both candidates are horrible," said Don Rycroft, who was sitting on a bench in downtown Portsmouth when I met him. But Rycroft, who is retired from the Federal Aviation Administration, believes one candidate is worse than the other.
"I tend to be conservative," said Rycroft, so he is sticking with Trump.
-snip-
"I think people's reaction to the video is telling in terms of how this election is unfolding, and perhaps why New Hampshire is actually closer than I would have thought," Koczela said. "Even though most people have seen it, and most people don't think that Donald Trump is a role model, a lot of people are voting for him anyway."
(Excerpt) Read more at wbur.org ...
How about ... No?
Polls are all over the place.
I’m inclined to believe that Trump lost some support over the weekend and regained it (and maybe a bit more) after the debate.
That’s a good trend.
It beats sitting here watching a Rubio or Cruz comfortably behind with no signs of life, whatsoever.
Bombs away.
I wonder if it is also that many are really seeing the optic of throwing all this at him right now (even though he has been a public figure for all of these years) and are beginning to both see through the whole thing and getting fed up with it.
Rubio may have won. Cruz... No way
As I heard discussed on the radio a few days ago, any polls prior to the very last ones just before the election are going to be used for opinion-shaping rather than reporting the actual facts on the ground. So yes, pretty much all the MSM-approved polls are going to show Clinton with a wide lead, because that’s what they want us unwashed masses to believe.
The final polls will show Trump “suddenly” surging ahead, and it’ll be described as a “shift in voter opinion” or a “surge” or something. That way the polling agencies get to retain their reputation for accuracy by “predicting” Trump’s win, while still having done their part in attempting to sway voter opinion by discouraging the Trump voters during the run-up to the election.
Polls are indeed all over the place.
There is a fundamental question in play. These D+9 and D+11 polls . . . how did they get that way? Rasmussen seems to apply a screen of D+5 or whatever the 2012 electorate looked like.
The key word there is “apply”. He forces results to be that and measures the result.
These D+11 polls don’t seem to apply a screen for that. They sample and that’s who the respondents are. That’s something that needs to be understood. Did the Dem party pick up that many more people since 2012? Seems unlikely, especially when D+9 wasn’t always being seen in samples 3 weeks ago.
Can you just imagine where we would be if it was hilLIARy against Little Yebbie!...?
We would only be talking about giving amnesty and citizenship to everyone on the planet, (both sides) but just how FAST we do that.
And visitng mosques every week to show which candidate supports them MORE than the other.
Trump has BOTh parties worried - because when one of them goes to jail there will be others going with them- on BOTH sides.
For first time in about a week Trump back in lead in daily PPD poll. So tied in LA, ahead by 2 in Ras and up by almost 1 in PPD. So the truth is that the national is trending towards Trump and the states are simply following.
Hillary will lose.
If she’s doing so great, why does the MSM say the race is tightening?
She should be walking away with the election.
And its only mid-October.
Explains why MO was there yesterday with her fake emotion.
Rubio is the kind of candidate that conventional, professional Republicans love.
They will come out with powerpoint presentations, graphs, and focus groups explaining that not only will he win, he would win big.
In the end, his defective presentation and lack of killer instinct will do him in. He’d go through the motions and on election night get his 190 electoral votes and give a forgettable concession speech.
Cruz’s presentation is actually worse, but he’d still wind up with pretty much the same 190 electoral votes and give a forgettable concession speech.
I’ve seen this movie before and it always ends the same way.
Both candidates are NOT horrible. HILLARY is horrible and a President Hillary will complete destruction of America. I wish to God “conservatives” would cut this crap OUT. THAT DOESN’T HELP US.
“These D+11 polls don’t seem to apply a screen for that. They sample and that’s who the respondents are. That’s something that needs to be understood. Did the Dem party pick up that many more people since 2012? Seems unlikely, especially when D+9 wasn’t always being seen in samples 3 weeks ago.”
And even then, Hillary can’t seem to get out of the mid 40s with a sampling like that. Really does not look good for her from that perspective, eh?
No.
The numbers are fantasy. Turnout in 2012 was D +2.
Hillary isn’t going to reach that level.
It’ll be flat or R +2, which favors Trump.
The poll out of NH reveals Hillary is in big trouble.
Obama won the Granite State easily in 2012.
I think all polls will tighten up... the pollsters will try to look credible in the end.
The more attacks against trump happen the more it just looks like mud being slinged by a desperate opponent. It will all just become noise.
I hope all the polls showing Clinton in the lead suppress even further Clinton support and dems don’t go to the polls because they think Clinton has won it anyway.
Those foolish libertarians up there might finally be getting a clue. Johnson isn't much of a libertarian anyway, I could never undertand their support for him. If they are truly as freedom loving as they say, Hillay's gun grabbing proposals and other statist policies should be plenty enough reasons for them to get off their purist high horse and do the only thing that makes sense. Johnson with his 15% is turning out to be the Ralph Nader of the right siphoning votes that otherwise would go Republican. Can't they see the danger see poses to freedom all across the spectrum?
The poll also said that Ayotte was tied with Hassan at 47 each in the Senate race. I think Ayotte loses now because of her stupid announcement that she’s not voting for Trump.
I agree with your post 100 percent!
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