The major firms need to get the election right if they are going to be trusted and hired ... so this year they're overcounting Democrats.
Posted on 10/14/2016 5:18:04 AM PDT by Zakeet
The major firms need to get the election right if they are going to be trusted and hired. So this year they're overcounting Democrats.
Buried deep in Reuters' article on the latest Reuters/Ipsos nation-wide poll, which showed Donald Trump slipping to an 8-point deficit after the tape furor and the debate, was the following information:
... Among the likely voters, the poll counted 798 Democrats and 586 Republicans.
Why the sampling imbalance?
[Snip]
Could it be that the poll is trying to factor in votes that are coming in under the radar?
If so, this is good news for Donald Trump.
1. The polls may be overcompensating for their failures in 2012. Gallup was not alone in its Republican bias. According to Nate Silver, 19 of 23 polls overestimated Romney’s vote totals. The pollsters may be swinging too far in the other direction, despite massive voter fraud being perpetrated by the Dems.
2. The projected easy victory for Hillary is likely to dissuade unmotivated voters to turn out, or even mail in their absentee ballots.
This is something that worries the DNC, according to Reuters. The perception that the race is not competitive will inevitably depress the party’s totals. And the Dems can't count on much affection for their nominee. According to Reuters/Ipsos, just 12.6% of Hillary's supporters are voting for her because they like her personally, and this figure sounds suspiciously high.
So it looks as if the major pollsters are putting their thumbs on the scale. But it's not because they're in cahoots with the DNC, but because they're trying to factor in Democratic vote fraud. And they may be pressing too hard.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
The major firms need to get the election right if they are going to be trusted and hired ... so this year they're overcounting Democrats.
Interesting thesis.
But no. If they were factoring in Democrat Voter Fraud, she would be ahead by 30%
they are factoring in the last money grab from the Democrats in their last thrust to win.
I expect the ones that want their reputations to be viable will change their polls to reflect something remarkable at the last minute that “no one could have predicted” and Trump is going to win.
With that last poll, they think their reputations will be intact.
Maybe maybe not but they are definitely not factoring in trump’s 11 point lead in voter enthusiasm.
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1182a12016ElectionPredebate.pdf
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/07/14/the-non-religious-are-now-the-countrys-largest-religious-voting-bloc/
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-hillary-clinton-has-the-edge-among-people-planning-to-skip-election/
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/296360-enthusiasm-gap-looms-for-clinton
(http://www.democracycorps.com/National-Surveys/voters-demand-government-a-political-reform/
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1182a12016ElectionPredebate.pdf
http://cara.georgetown.edu/presidential%20vote%20only.pdf
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html
Maybe maybe not but they are definitely not factoring in trump’s 11 point lead in voter enthusiasm.
Of course they are, that's why they always oversample Democrats.
Are Polling Firms Now Factoring in Democratic Voter Fraud?
Yes. Next question.
Exactily, I have been posting that same comment here for months. And I leave off the /s tag.
Thugs cheat. Democrats do voter fraud because they’re criminals. They think it’s funny.
Are Polling Firms Now Factoring in Democratic Voter Fraud?
Hard to say, but I did see the CNN Pollsters walking through the Cemetary asking the Dead how they planned on voting.
Folks need to look carefully at the 1980 polls.
The last poll at that time (Gallup, late October) showed Carter with a six point lead.
Six point lead—outside the margin of error.
Reagan won by ten points.
There were no significant events in the last week (well some alleged “October surprise, Iran” but the impact of that is highly debatable).
So we have a sixteen point polling error.
That is completely impossible if anything remotely related to fair and objective polls were taken.
So why did Gallup do it?
They had to know the real numbers were very different.
(By the way, Carter had a _forty_ point lead in January of 1980—and I believe that is a clue...)
In 1980 the major media attacked Reagan viciously, as a kooky right-wing extremist, in every newcast, every waking moment.
The narrative was that Carter was the incumbent, experienced, stable, reliable, and Reagan was the gun-slinging madman from the Wild West who hated black people and the poor.
Well, it doesn’t help the official narrative if the wacky nut is leading in the polls—that might make low-information voters wonder is he wasn’t so wacky after all.
So Gallup lied—pure and simple.
This is not rocket science, folks.
They _lie_.
Deal with it.
I think most Hillary leaning pollsters are structuring their polls so that they show a (misleading) tilt towards Hillary. That way, if Trump does win, Hillary can yell voting “FRAUD”, using previous polls as her “evidence”.
“Look at all of the polls before the election!. I won most of those, so it stands to reason I should’ve won the election. I only lost because Trump cheated. The polls indicated I was the true winner!”
No, if voter fraud was taken into account, hitlary would be ahead by over by at least 20 points.
IMHO, the important thing here is that enough Trump voters go to the polling place and do their thing.
Trump must get enough votes to overcome the massive, massive voter fraud the RATS have planned. I figure Trump needs to win by an honest 15 points. Voter fraud will then cut that to 3-8 points.
1. Any polling co. doing their polling via the phone system can skew their results in any direction by merely ringing your number then not responding to your answering your phone, yet they fill in the polling data as if you were questioned;
2. When any Internet company asks for your phone number, to assure you can access your account in case of an 'accidental lock-out', they can make calling sheets with the cell phone numbers people give them thi9nking it is going on file for emergencies only.
There is now ONLY ONE WAY to defeat these dead soul bastards, T U R N O U T of Trump voting Americans. If a friend insists their third party vote will not effect Trump returns, well, do you really want boneheaded stupid friends clinging to your food and tools after illary starts the collapse?
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