Maybe maybe not but they are definitely not factoring in trump’s 11 point lead in voter enthusiasm.
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1182a12016ElectionPredebate.pdf
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/07/14/the-non-religious-are-now-the-countrys-largest-religious-voting-bloc/
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-hillary-clinton-has-the-edge-among-people-planning-to-skip-election/
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/296360-enthusiasm-gap-looms-for-clinton
(http://www.democracycorps.com/National-Surveys/voters-demand-government-a-political-reform/
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1182a12016ElectionPredebate.pdf
http://cara.georgetown.edu/presidential%20vote%20only.pdf
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html
Maybe maybe not but they are definitely not factoring in trumps 11 point lead in voter enthusiasm.