Posted on 03/16/2016 10:52:11 PM PDT by goldstategop
A bit of conventional wisdom was settling in on Wednesday morning that though Donald Trump enjoyed a good “Super Tuesday II,” with victories in the Northern Mariana Islands, Florida, North Carolina, Illinois, and—tentatively—Missouri, he may not have done well enough to ward off a contested convention. John Kasich’s win in his home state, Ohio, deprived Trump of a juicy 66 delegates, and he has still not shown that he can claim a state with anything greater than a plurality of the popular vote. By the Associated Press’ latest estimate, he’ll need to win 54 percent of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination by the end of primary season on June 7.
What makes Trump so strong in these hybrid contests is the strength of his pluralities across the map. In Illinois, he built up wide pluralities in Chicago and its suburbs, while also performing well in more rural counties in the eastern, western, and southern parts of the state. Cruz had him beat only in the central parts of the state surrounding Springfield and Peoria. Missouri’s map was similar. Cruz took the areas surrounding Kansas City, Columbia, and (Missouri’s) Springfield. But Trump crushed in rural counties and also took pluralities in St. Louis City, which has a negligible number of Republican votes, and its surrounding counties, which have many Republican votes. If you’re winning pluralities in both large rural expanses and urban areas, you’re going to win a lot of congressional districts’ winner-take-all delegates, even if the margins are slim.
(Excerpt) Read more at slate.com ...
I am not a Trump fan, but I believe he will be our next president.
Trump is freakin’ Force of Nature.
Speaking of plurality, as a historical footnote, the first Republican President, Abraham Lincoln, won the November 1860 election with a 39% plurality of the vote.
More recently, Democratic presidential candidate Bill Clinton in 1992 won the White House with a 42% plurality.
Trump’s best argument to be elected is the way he’s run this race. With no political experience, a shoestring budget (by choice), no existing network or ground game, opposition from GOP, media, Dems, and random super pacs yet he is the frontrunner.
He’s right, if he can run the country this way, we’ll be in good shape.
“Kasich’s Ohio win, in the long run, may turn out to be the best thing that ever happened to Trump. It keeps Kasich in the race and prevents the anti-Trump vote from coalescing around Cruz, the only candidate with the slightest chance of catching up to Trump. In red states, this makes it easier for Trump to win his pluralities in over Ted Cruz; in blue states, he’ll be able to do the same over Kasich.”
Correctamundo.
Sometimes I wonder how the tens of millions of voters who show up in the primary suddenly become 100 million for general election to vote for the republicans. Are there really that many ppl who sit out of primary elections?
Maybe they know something we don’t.
True!
I have to laugh at the comparisons to Obama's rallies. Obama had NOTHING but praise and support from the media and every institution here and around the world, as well as opening the rallies with free concerts by major performers.
Yawn
Boring!
Trump has had something better.
Drama, Drama, Dramma!
The American people might even tune out the Kardashians for such Drama!
LOL!
He's already knows the "reality teevee" shtick.
And the media are selling soap! (Ratings, baby, ratings).
What a medicine show...
Had Cruz not taken the South for granted the story might have been different. Ted was arrogant enough to think he had the South locked up so he ignited it and lost
It infuriates the DC poltical class. They can’t money off of ztrump
Yes
B-b-but Teddy can still win the nomination!
Never mind that it would be a coup of legendary proportions and would result in losing the general to hildabeast. But it can happen!
At the convention, a majority rules, but a plurality does not. These are the rules, and they always have been. The GOP must follow the rules.
Trump needs to end this talk of a Beer Hall Putsch in Cleveland and concentrate on winning half of the delegates. Cruz has an easier path, because he will be more acceptable to the convention on a second ballot, so he just needs to hold Trump to less than half.
“Putsch”... What a great word.
One that the American Electorate will be becoming more familiar with, if Trump stays on his current course.
It has been said that the entire World stands in awe as the most powerful office on the planet changes hands every four or eight years through the peaceful transfer of power.
That long run could be coming to an abrupt end in Cleveland.
If Donald Trump riots his way to victory at the RNC convention, it is all over for the Republican Party and the Republic.
The American Beer Hall Putsch is coming.
Plus, 0bama had hundreds of handlers and advisors, he gave very few interviews, and when he did, it was to friendly “reporters,” and he gave few, if any, press conferences. He essentially was wrapped in a tight cocoon. Trump has been interviewed by everyone, and has given numerous press conferences, and has very few advisors, no internal polling outfit, and he’s his own strategist.
“That long run could be coming to an abrupt end in Cleveland.
If Donald Trump riots his way to victory at the RNC convention, it is all over for the Republican Party and the Republic.”
A bit dramatic, don’t you think.
Government power does not change hands at a party convention.
As for disruption at a political convention, and ramming a candidate through, you must not know much about American political history.
Slim?
REALLY?
Yes.
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