Posted on 02/25/2016 9:11:08 AM PST by GilGil
Professor Helmut Norpoth’s statistical modeling gives Trump a 97 percent chance of beating Clinton in November - if he's the GOP nominee
He'd have an even better shot against Bernie Sanders - 99 percent
Norpoth's model has accurately predicted the winner of every national election since 1912, The Statesman reports, except the election of 1960
If either Rubio or Cruz were the GOP nominee, the model shows them losing to Clinton but winning against Sanders
(Excerpt) Read more at dailymail.co.uk ...
This would be nice — obviously the general election is what matters. Now watch the RINOe go wild with this one.
A prediction made on historical lookback
Lot of heads exploding. This article is like the cross to Dracula!
I’d like to see how his model accounted for the 2000 election before passing judgement on it.
Write to him and ask for clarification!
I think so too. Trump will shred her so that she has a coughing attack she won’t recover from.
Is that 97% based on an honest election with only legitimate voters voting and an honest vote count? Neither condition will prevail. Because the Republican Party has sworn to a Judge that it will never contest vote fraud elections are wide open for overt and covert vote fraud and for Soros to manipulate the vote count in the 11 states(including Florida) for which his company is the official tabulator.
You give up too easily!
For sake of intelligent discussion, instead of, “Oh, Beck is a crazy moron, yada yada”, Beck quoted a bunch of polls showing Trump does not have a chance of beating her.
What gives?
I understand statistics and this prof’s model is likely multi-variate, pretty complex and has a lot of variables which with sensitivity analysis, he changes, puts in best cast to worst case for each and pumps out a percentage...however, it is still crap in, crap out.
It would be nice to know what his assumptions are, however.
Any thoughts anyone?
Fine if Trump wins, but no one can say with certainty what’s inside until we elect him.
I’ve heard that before, too.
The 3% of losing only occurs if Trump hires Romney advisors.....
Why don’t you write to the guy and ask him!
Are you sure about all that? C’mon man.
I agree. Trump will roll over Killary like Patton on his way to East Germany.
Why don’t you write to the guy and ask him!
Nice thought, though.
No one questions it, too...drives me nuts. I’m skeptical of any poll I see.
Sorry, my kids remind me, it’s “skep”, not “skeptical”.
While the professor’s model is nice “eye candy” for Trump supporters, I do have reservations. I’m sure the model is well-constructed, and being a political science professor, it’s not likely that he constructed it with the intent of reaching this conclusion. However, keep in mind that climate change “science” is also built on models.
Or, as Patsy said: “It’s only a model.”
Waiting for the Monty Python reply...
Lot of heads exploding. This article is like the cross to Dracula!
Nixon would have won except for Mayor Daly in Chicago manufacturing votes for Kennedy, so the model was correct, except for corruption and cheating the system!..................
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