Posted on 02/25/2016 9:11:08 AM PST by GilGil
Heck , even small local restaurants won’t give you their secret recipes. I asked once for the ingredients of a ‘rice dressing’ and was rebuffed.......................
Norpoth’s model has accurately predicted the winner of every national election since 1912, The Statesman reports, except the election of 1960
Nixon would have won except for Mayor Daly in Chicago manufacturing votes for Kennedy, so the model was correct, except for corruption and cheating the system!..................
This seems to agree with DNC internal polling. The WAPO is even trying to get the GOP to redouble its efforts to dump Trump.
Here is the abstract and link, where you’ll find a link to 16 pages of pdf. After you’ve studied them, please come back and let us know what you found out. Or, you can just say, “The hell with it. If I have to dig it out myself, it must be lie.”
American presidential elections run in cycles that have turning points after about two to three terms of a party’s control of the White House. This is not the pattern associated with realignment eras that are presumed to last 30 years or so. The cyclical dynamic is estimated with a second-order autoregressive model. More than three years before the day of the next presidential election is not too early for the cyclical model to offer its forecast. With parameter estimates and the requisite values for the predictors at hand, the cyclical forecast is able to make an unconditional forecast for the 2016 presidential election: 51.4% of the two-party popular vote for the Republican candidate. The 2016 contest shapes up as “Time for a Change†election. After two terms, consistent with the logic of the cyclical model, change looms larger than continuity.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2303042
Does the 97% and 99% include all forms of election and voter fraud?
Thanks! I will read it. Many moons ago I had an experiment published in JASA - like I said, MANY moons ago.
Well, that took about 60 seconds to flip through; no divulging variables or other predictors; not what I expected. He’s seemingly noted a pattern and has bought into it hook line and sinker. No where will 10M illegals figure into his model - which, I suspect, was a huge factor in 2012 stolen election, I might add. He could be right, for all the wrong reasons.
Doom and gloom troll.
Not just ‘sprinkled in’ but STRATEGICALLY PLACED!........................
The DoJ just declined to defend against a lawsuit that called for there to be NO questioning of any prospective voter. If you decline to defend you lose.
Trump will put every State in the Union into play!
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