Posted on 02/17/2016 7:10:34 PM PST by SoConPubbie
In an NBC/WSJ poll released today, Ted Cruz leads Donald Trump by two points nationally.
Cruz has 28 percent to Trump’s 26 percent. Rubio is third with 17 percent, followed by Kasich at 11, Carson at 10, and Bush in last place at 4 percent.
“The results from the poll -- conducted after Trump's victory in New Hampshire, as well as after Saturday's GOP debate in South Carolina -- are a significant reversal from last month, when Trump held a 13-point lead over Cruz, 33 percent to 20 percent.”
Donald Trump has polled first in 31 consecutive national polls since November, when Dr. Ben Carson briefly led Mr. Trump. Cruz’s lead over Trump comes a surprise given recent polling in South Carolina. Mr. Trump currently leads Ted Cruz by double digits there, with the South Carolina primary taking place on Saturday.
Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted this survey, says Trump's drop could signal being “right on top of a shift in the campaign.”
In hypothetical one-on-one matchups, the NBC/WSJ national poll shows Trump behind both Cruz (56 percent to 40 percent) and Rubio (57 percent to 41 percent).
“Let them have their moment. They get so few.”
I suppose we ought to just leave them in peace while they revel in their last few hours of insane glee.
The let-down is going to be too awful to look at.
Rubio is doing about the same in some of those other polls, Carson too.
So, people make excuses about this NBCWSJ poll.
VIVA CANADA!!!!
Say what dummy?
"Very conservative" voters are relatively difficult to poll -- as a group, they don't answer unknown phone numbers or respond to pollsters. As a consequence, unadjusted polling samples tend to under-represent them.
Moreover, the Republican primary party polling to date further suggests that "very conservative" voters are turning out in a higher proportion than expected (see Iowa).
Under these circumstances, the pollster has re-adjusted his polling sample to represent what he believes the actual turnout will be.
Is this the beginning of a trend? We’ll see.
It’s good news, though.
You are lucky we are on FreeRepublic, or I would tell you what with a Trumpism
10% is big weightage swing. Now if you add 10% Cruz voter and reduce surge factor, one can swing towards Cruz. Even with skewed data, both are within error.
It means Trumps numbers are way high, around 39-40
The ohter interesting thing is tha tin this poll and others across the board, Heb is around 4 percent. He’s either last or next to last in all of them.
but but... I thought Cruz was a liar, a Canadian mounty spy and secret liberal who wants Obamacare for all when he is not playing kissy kissy with Mitch McConnel behind closed doors!
*snicker*
I think what’s happened here is that the former Newsweek pollster transferred over to NBC/WSJ. Those Newsweek polls were ALWAYS like this .. way outliers. And they were usually featured on the mag’s cover. Is it any wonder Newsweek sold for $1?
The pollster told Chuck Todd he CHANGED the people he was polling by ADDING 10% who said they were "VERY CONSERVATIVE'...
In short he added Cruz voters.
It would be as if a dem pollster added 10% MORE people under age 30 to a Democrat poll ... that would boost Sanders numbers over Hillary's.
So awful, I can't wait.
I'm gonna throw a six pack of Ensure in the cooler for refreshments.
In Iowa, you have add caucus fraud by Cruz. In SC, it will favor Rubio.
“This is STUNNING news!”
How is it “news”, when it’s already been posted 37 times today?
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