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One-Third of Iowa Voters Could Bail on Their Candidate, Pollster Warns
the Weekly Standard ^ | January 28th, 2016 | By Chris Deaton

Posted on 01/28/2016 1:40:44 PM PST by Mariner

The Republican presidential primaries have been chaotic thus far. And the chaos could continue.

Nearly a third (31 percent) of likely GOP caucus goers say they could change their vote before Monday, according to a fresh survey from Public Policy Polling. The new data suggest that “there are still a lot of votes on the table," PPP wrote in a release accompanying the results.

What the numbers imply, though, is a mixed bag. On the one hand, Trump may be insulated from such fickle caucus goers, as 80 percent of his supporters say they're "firmly committed to him". Compare that to 71 percent of Cruz's backers and a paltry 65 percent of Rubio's.

However, PPP explains the flip side:

(Excerpt) Read more at weeklystandard.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa
KEYWORDS: bailout; hillary; newyork; oprah
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Nobody ever knows who is going to win Iowa, and those who say they do are either delusional or lying.

But there is nearly unlimited spin every cycle from media, polls and politicians on the intricate mechanisms and variables. And they spin to their advantage.

Iowa boils down to what it's always been:

Weather and turnout.

Currently wind and snow predicted for Monday night, which sometimes leads to low turnout. But doesn't always lead to low turnout. It depends on the wind...yeah, that's it...or the phase of the moon or something.

1 posted on 01/28/2016 1:40:44 PM PST by Mariner
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To: Mariner

Sounds to ne like the type of weekend to just tune out the news, get a movie series on dvd or a stack of books.


2 posted on 01/28/2016 1:43:21 PM PST by Daniel Ramsey
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To: Mariner

I wish and hope Cruz is laying down the gauntlet with the GOP elite:

Either cast your votes to my side— or Trump is the nominee.

If Rubio and Carson would join Cruz, Trump could be defeated.

The fact that the elite is saying they like Trump is an absolute strategic lie on their part.

They hope to knock Cruz out of the race at Iowa— which will not happen— and then at some point refuse to endorse trump after he takes out Cruz.

I honestly think McConnell will vote for Hillary or Bernie Sanders. I think he and many GOPE are that treacherous.


3 posted on 01/28/2016 1:44:50 PM PST by lonestar67 (I remember when unemployment was 4.7 percent / Cruz 2016)
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To: lonestar67

???


4 posted on 01/28/2016 1:46:32 PM PST by Vic S
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To: Daniel Ramsey

Yup. I think I’m going to bail out of here till Monday night or Tuesday. The howlers are having quite a screechfest. They aren’t going to comvince anyone here; most everyone has already made up their minds. But the screeching will go on.

I feel sorry for the mods.


5 posted on 01/28/2016 1:47:56 PM PST by RKBA Democrat (Liberals LOVE Open Carry!)
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To: RKBA Democrat
"I feel sorry for the mods."

Don't kid yourself. The mods are right in the middle of it, taking their shift, then posting under their regular name.

They love it lol

6 posted on 01/28/2016 1:50:05 PM PST by Mariner (War Criminal #18 - Be The Leaderless Resistance)
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To: lonestar67

Either cast your votes to my side— or Trump is the nominee.

Oh God I hope Cruz says this tonight. That would guarantee a Trump win. Lord you are on Trump’s side after all.


7 posted on 01/28/2016 1:55:56 PM PST by napscoordinator
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To: Mariner

I’ve never understood how so late in the game someone wouldn’t know who they were going to vote for. Maybe I’m too organized my self to visualize operating like this. I mean it’s not like one wouldn’t have heard about the candidates by now. It’s not like walking into a local deli and making a snap decision between the daily special and the corned beef.


8 posted on 01/28/2016 2:00:47 PM PST by Flick Lives (One should not attend even the end of the world without a good breakfast. -- Heinlein)
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To: napscoordinator

I hope he says it as well.

And I hope he defeats the anti-conservative candidate Donald Trump.

Frankly, I am not sure there is anyone running currently more opposed to the conservative movement than Trump.

The idea that some sort of hyperbolic emotional response is the only essential governing doctrine of conservatism— is absurd.

And yet, you simply respond with, I hope he does because trump will win.

Because no matter what, everything leads to a trump win. If trump moves to Mars. Trump wins. If trump switches genders. Trump wins.

There ought to be a threshold of argumentation that Trump supporters offer.

What we get instead is— the demand for reasons or logical support is part of the GOP elite conspiracy.

Rationality and reason are not GOP elite conspiracies.

Rationality and reason are essential components of good conservative governance.


9 posted on 01/28/2016 2:01:15 PM PST by lonestar67 (I remember when unemployment was 4.7 percent / Cruz 2016)
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To: lonestar67

If Rubio and Carson would join Cruz, Trump could be defeated.

888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888

If a frog had wings...............................

Rubio and Carson are looking out for Rubio and Carson.


10 posted on 01/28/2016 2:01:23 PM PST by Graybeard58 (Bill and Hillary Clinton are the penicillin-resistant syphilis of our political system.)
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To: Mariner

The voters who prefer Trump are the most “sticky” to their decision.


11 posted on 01/28/2016 2:02:10 PM PST by Cboldt
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To: Mariner

That’s no surprise with this bunch.


12 posted on 01/28/2016 2:04:53 PM PST by Crucial (At the heart all leftidsts s the fear that the truth is bigger than themselves.)
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To: Mariner

What I’d like to know is why in Hell does the entire country obsess over the votes of about 120,000 people in Iowa? OK, they are as important as any other 120,000 people (or however many actually vote on Monday), but why are THEY taken as such a bellweather? They are only about 1/1000th of the total electorate. If they were so damned prescient or influential, Rick Santorum would’ve been the nominee in 2012, not Romney.

Its just first, that’s all.


13 posted on 01/28/2016 2:05:01 PM PST by Ancesthntr ("The right to buy weapons is the right to be free." A. E. van Vogt)
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To: napscoordinator

And again— I know this is crazy because it is evidence supporting my argument— the GOP elite support Trump.

That is a clue: Trump is anti-conservative.

Trump will work well with Nancy Pelosi.

He will work well with Harry Reid.

He will work well with Mitch McConnell. I think he might bring Boehner out of retirement.

That is not OUR purpose. WE are working for conservative political outcomes. If any of those ever re-occur to your mind, I would urge you to rejoin the conversation on this question.


14 posted on 01/28/2016 2:05:07 PM PST by lonestar67 (I remember when unemployment was 4.7 percent / Cruz 2016)
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To: lonestar67

Ok. Fair enough. Let me tell you a few things.

Trump will take ISIS on and win.

Trump will build the wall (even if he has to pay for it at least to start)

Trump will get rid of the Muslims who are coming in illegally and no refugees

No think about this. Trump announced his run for Presidency and said he would win the nomination. Guess what? He is. Now for a guy to be that positive about his abilities is someone we need in the White House.

I just find him to be the best person to run in America is decades. We are so lucky that he is sacrificing himself for us.

Trump 2016


15 posted on 01/28/2016 2:07:36 PM PST by napscoordinator
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To: Mariner

Well we all know just how critical winning Iowa is!

After all just ask Presidents Santorum and Huckabee how their wins in Iowa cemented their evetual nominations.


16 posted on 01/28/2016 2:07:44 PM PST by MNJohnnie ( Tyranny, like Hell, is not easily conquered)
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To: napscoordinator

I must’ve missed Trump’s tweet where he confirmed God’s endorsement.

Of course I know he already thinks he’s God’s gift to the world...


17 posted on 01/28/2016 2:12:28 PM PST by JediJones ("Beautiful, famous, successful, married - I've had them all, secretly." -Trump on women in 2007 book)
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To: napscoordinator

Fair enough.

Those are conservative positions.

I still support Cruz but I appreciate the explanation from you.


18 posted on 01/28/2016 2:13:28 PM PST by lonestar67 (I remember when unemployment was 4.7 percent / Cruz 2016)
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To: lonestar67

No, Trump said he can get along with them, but he would WIN.

Try being a little bit honest. It would help you.


19 posted on 01/28/2016 2:17:47 PM PST by dforest
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good carma will follow your donation to free republic

20 posted on 01/28/2016 2:18:01 PM PST by DoughtyOne (Free Republic Caucus: vote daily / watch for the thread / Starts 01/20 midnight to midnight EST)
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