Posted on 01/26/2016 4:14:53 AM PST by usafa92
The Iowa Republican Caucus is a two-man race going down to the wire with Donald Trump at 31 percent and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas at 29 percent among likely Republican Caucus participants, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida is at 13 percent, with no other candidate above 7 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at quinnipiac.edu ...
Trump morning poll ping.
GO TRUMP
I just posted on another thread that I wouldn't like to be a resident of Iowa or New Hampshire during these battles. The nonstop advertising and the phone ringing off the hook with 50 polls ongoing at one time; I'd be sick of it.
"Despite Sarah Palin's endorsement of Donald Trump and Gov. Terry Branstad's criticism of Sen. Ted Cruz, and despite - or because of - Sen. Cruz' 'New York values' comments, the Iowa Republican Caucus remains too close to call," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
"One week before the caucuses gather, the question is which candidate has the best field organization. If the events of the last two weeks haven't moved the needle, one wonders what would change it in the next six days."
"It all comes down to turnout. And with four in 10 likely caucus participants saying they still might change their mind, this is an especially volatile race," Brown added.
"One thing is increasingly evident, the conservative wing of the Republican party, at least in Iowa, is carrying the day," Brown added.
Cruz is taking the lion's share of the right wing among Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants, with Trump taking a good chunk and only a few scraps for the rest of the pack.
Cruz leads Trump:
50 - 34 percent among self-professed Tea Party members;
39 - 27 percent among white, born-again Evangelical Christians;
49 - 29 percent among voters describing themselves as "very conservative."Trump leads Cruz:
29 - 21 percent among self-identified "somewhat conservative" voters;
37 - 6 percent among voters claiming to be "moderate" or "liberal."
GO TED CRUZ!! VOTE TED CRUZ!!
I still believe this understates Trump
1) almost all political and pundit professionals hate Trump, and their hatred affects their job performance and their normally professional abilities
2) Trump is bringing in a lot of new people who do not normally participate in primaries (especially caucuses) and are not easily countable
I predict a Trump blow-out in Iowa.
Congratulations. You can cut, paste and do italics in HTML. So, with all your cut and paste stats, Trump is still beating Cruz. Got it.
Elections are all about turnout. That's how Obama won Iowa, he turned out a huge number of supporters. Something like 60% of the participants were "first timers," and the bulk of that was fielded by Obama.
Cruz claims to have a superior ground game. Trump ain't talkin'. Could be bluff, could be stealth.
okie dokie, no reason to get angry.
Yes, turnout is the key.
High turnout, Trump wins.
Low turnout, Cruz wins.
Cruz has expended all of his powder in one state, while Trump is already running a national campaign. For the amount of time and energy Cruz has expended, he should be up by 10 in Iowa. But he’s not. Hes behind about 5 in the averages. Cruz should be very worried. If he loses here, Trump runs the table. If he wins, he makes it until Super Tuesday then is done.
My suggestion to Trump: 2 days before caucus day put out a call to make caucus day Trump Rally day. Rally for Trump at your caucus location. Have fun! Make it a celebration!
I'm wondering if Trump voters will be the ones to get out there, kind of recreating the connection to the rallies. Does anyone really know?
:-)
I don’t wish to argue with you, but I have said this repeatedly to Cruz supporters and it applies both ways. Why can’t poster refute the message and not make insulting personal remarks about the poster. I think even though we have different favorite candidates on FR the non trolls here love America.
I want to learn facts from you including opinions but insults just turn many of us off. BTW I wish I were bright enough to do italics.
The averages say that Trump is ahead.
Iowa says that that matters, but that it doesn’t matter as much as in non-caucus states.
Pollster Pat Caddell says we’ll know instantly by turnout. If it’s a standard 120,000 turnout, then he predicts a Cruz win. If it’s 140,000 or above, he predicts a huge Trump win. 120,000 is his idea of a standard turnout for an Iowa caucus.
nclaurel: Thank You
usafa92: Not doing anything here to offend just to offer up for discussion. I hope you have a blessed day.
Finally, even Forest Gump State University HAS to admit the truth about “Formerly Surging Ted.”
I’ll vote for stealth
I’ve read the last published(October) articles about how they were organizing !
He has hired the best and he’s keeping his generals quiet!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.