NH poll: Trump leads, Rubio rises to second [Trump 29% Rubio 15% Christie/Kasich 11% Cruz/Bush 10%]

WT ^ | 1/6/16 4:01 PM | Ryan Lovelace

[GonzoII]

Public Policy Polling's new survey of New Hampshire shows Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential field, with Florida Sen. Marco Rubio trailing in second place.

Trump leads the Granite State poll with the support of 29 percent of those surveyed, followed by Rubio at 15 percentage points, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Ohio Gov. John Kasich tied at 11 points, and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz tied at 10 points.

When the race is narrowed to Trump, Rubio, and Cruz, Trump's lead over Rubio slims to just two percentage points, 36-34.

"If the Republican establishment really wants to stop Donald Trump in New Hampshire it might require some more people dropping out of the race," said Dean Debnam, PPP president, in a statement. "Four different establishment candidates all polling in double digits is what's allowing Trump to have such a big lead in the state."

Bush and Rubio have the most momentum in the new poll. Bush's support doubled since last month's poll, while Rubio gained four percentage points. Ben Carson dropped five percentage points in the Granite State since PPP's previous poll, while Cruz dropped three points. But Cruz would fare much better if Trump exited the race.

"If the Donald Trump collapse that's been expected for six months but has yet to materialize ever does become a reality, Ted Cruz is going to be in a very good position in New Hampshire," Debnam said. "He's the next in line for Trump voters and it's not even close."

PPP surveyed 515 "likely Republican primary voters" from January 4th to the 6th. The poll has a 4.3 percentage point margin of error for the Republicans. Eighty percent of total respondents answered the survey via a phone, while 20 percent of respondents participated "over the Internet through an opt-in panel."

[GonzoII]

[montag813]

Looks like 2008/2012 again. Trump loses Iowa, wins NH and nomination, like McCain and Romney. If that happens again, Iowa should be dropped from process.

[conservativejoy]

It is getting awfully close for Trump in New Hampshire. If he loses Iowa and New Hampshire back to back, Katy bar the door!

[montag813]

When the race is narrowed to Trump, Rubio, and Cruz, Trump's lead over Rubio slims to just two percentage points, 36-34.

Stunning. 1 month ago that was +15% for establishment. Big change in NH.

[dragnet2]

Bookmark....

[The Ghost of FReepers Past]

So you favor New Hampshire choosing the candidate. Who cares about the rest of us?

[ripnbang]

"If the Donald Trump collapse that's been expected for six months but has yet to materialize ever does become a reality"

In other news, hundreds of pigs were seen flying in the sky over New England....

[sparklite2]

Agreed. Iowa is meaningless and always was. And it’s looking like Cruz is a regional hit, not national.

[The Ghost of FReepers Past]

New Hampshire is national, not regional? Interesting.

[Resolute Conservative]

They should all be dropped. These few states that get to go first screw the rest of us.

[JPG]

--It is getting awfully close for Trump in New Hampshire.

+14 is 'awfully close'?

Uh, OK, if you say so.

[sparklite2]

I’m seeing that Cruz polls at Trump levels in certain localities, but not broadly. His appeal isn’t broad enough.

[GonzoII]

"Raleigh, N.C. - PPP's newest New Hampshire poll finds Donald Trump leading in the state by 14 points. Trump's position in the state has been steady over the last three months- we found him at 28% in mid-October, 27% in early December, and we find him at 29% this month. 5 other candidates are in double digits but pretty closely clustered and all well behind Trump- Marco Rubio at 15%, Chris Christie and John Kasich at 11%, and Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz at 10%. Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina at 4%, Rand Paul at 3%, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum at 1%, and Jim Gilmore with less than 1% round out the field."

[St_Thomas_Aquinas]

I’m seeing that Cruz polls at Trump levels in certain localities, but not broadly. His appeal isn’t broad enough.

NH has gone liberal/RINO. But after Cruz wins IA he should get a bump in NH.

Cruz gets IA. Trump gets NH. Then it's on to SC.

[The Ghost of FReepers Past]

It only counts on game day. We shall see. Polls are often wrong.

Is NH one of the states where Democrats are allowed to vote in the Republican primary?

[lodi90]

Cruz’s opportunistic tact to gather evangelical support in Iowa was always going to hurt him in NH. He can’t have both and chose to go all in on Iowa apparently.

[GonzoII]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NH_10616.pdf

[who knows what evil?]

Is NH one of the states where Democrats are allowed to vote in the Republican primary?

Yes...not only that, but Democrats from out of state, as well!

[GonzoII]

"Stunning. 1 month ago that was +15% for establishment. Big change in NH."

The good news is that Trump is +2 from the last poll and it's getting late for the others.

[Drew68]

If that happens again, Iowa should be dropped from process.

Iowa has been a blue state for 6 of the last 7 presidential elections. I've never understood the importance given to them in selecting the GOP candidate. They certainly don't deserve it.