Posted on 12/20/2015 7:42:33 AM PST by VinL
Moe is not just the lead stooge.
Keep telling yourself that. Merely wishing doesn’t make it so. There is something called reality that has a nasty habit of catching up with ya.
Two words: illegal immigration.
And by the way, you do have a point in your last post. From what I can see from my own experience, Trump is not turning any lefties into conservatives. But Trump is prying some iof those lefties away from the democratic base, at least for now. It's a start.
Nevada poll? Where?
It’s true Trump is having classes for new caucus goers. Trump enlarges his base. You keep telling yourself if only Cruz wins Iowa he also wins the rest of the United States. LoL.
LOL! Same here. Them odds makers didn't have a clue. They listened too much to the lamestream media.
In IA you just have to be registered and I think you can register right up to the day of the caucus.
But that’s what Trump’s other issue is. Many people have been coming to his rallies. Apparently, they take down all attendees contact information (phone#/email#, etc), but they haven’t been getting back with the attendees to determine if their registered or would volunteer for the campaign.
Trump’s lagging in the small counties for precint captains. Most of the legwork done to register and get voters to volunteer takes place before Christmas. There is some extra time this cycle since the Caucus isn’t until February, but the groundwork needed to be done months ago.
The RuPaul bots are notorious in IA for hounding people to the caucus to the point you want to slap the sh!t out of them. There that annoying. And yet, not even they could get over 25% statewide and their organization was a machine, which relied heavily on new voters and left-leaning defense doves.
That’s why Trump is in trouble in IA.
However, you’re assuming 2008 and 2012 are good indicators for 2016. How has that worked so far for the pundits, media and GOPe?
Good point. Trump isn’t the usual GOP candidates like Romney, Gingrich, Santorum, or Huckabee. That would be a big mistake to assume that Trump is like these guys in Iowa. Trump is infinitely better on the campaign trail than these guys.
I was running numbers in OH on the "early voting" in 2012 just as you are, with every bit the same certainty. Didn't work out that way at all.
Trump is only started having classes for caucus goers this late in the game? Chuckle! Ted Cruz already had the most sophisticated ground game in the business. And he is bringing in an additional crack squad from Texas to further reinforce his already strong ground game in Iowa. Iowa is in the bag for Ted Cruz.
Completely depends.
It’s a game of expectations too.
If Cruz is expected to win and wins by a small margin, he wont get much of a bump from Iowa.
If Trump is expected to win and Cruz were to win instead, Cruz would get a huge bump.
If Cruz is expected to win, but then not only wins, but wins BIG, then he would get a bump.
Trump has a much lower hurdle to cross to get a massive bump from Iowa in my opinion, because a LOT of professionals dont think his poll numbers will translate to actual votes. So if the votes in Iowa are even CLOSE to what he is polling.... that would basically indicate the race is over and Trump has the nomination.
Hey smoke don’t go all delirium for Cruz when cBS blows smoke with a tiny sample sized poll. There’s going to be another poll showing Trump again ahead in Iowa. I’ll point out this poll is soooo ancient like you did up thread. LoL.
Ummmm.....no. The one you are talking about is Rubio. Cruz has essentially kept his powder dry and preserved most of his money. That's why He has more cash on hand than anyone else.
Beyond that, if I recall correctly, he wasn’t even initially declared the winner. As I recall, Romney got the initial call, and then days later, it was noted quietly in the maimstream media that Santorum finished slightly ahead. So, Santorum didn’t get much of a psychological bump.
Cruz will CRUSH Trump in Iowa. It’s not even going to be close. And you can take it to the bank. That Trump overinflated ego is going to take a terrible beating. So sorry.
If Cruz wins in Iowa, and it’s very iffy, he will win by the skin of his teeth. And don’t think Cruz does not have a big ego - he does and it’s a big one.
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