Posted on 12/20/2015 7:42:33 AM PST by VinL
It ain’t in the bag till its over but Cruz is most definitely well in the lead in Iowa and closing fast in NH.
LOL :)
A whole 4 days ago! So ancient LoL.
I don’t talk politics with my sister, who has always been a Democrat. I did happen to mention Trump yesterday during a conversation, and oh my - she and her entire family - are all in for Trump. People are going to be surprised. She does not like Ted Cruz. So, Cruz isn’t going to get the Reagan Democrats - he just isn’t.
Not only that, but he crosses his legs like a girl. Sorry - he just does. And all that huggy, huggy, fake stuff for an ad is nauseating.
With this Margin of Error MOE it could be in Iowa Trump 38%, Cruz 33%. It is such a small sample size that it is almost meaningless.
Trump will never get more than 27% in IA. Not going to happen.
Linn County (Cedar Rapids) is a MUST win for Trump.
2008 Total Caucus Votes: 7,881
2012 Total Caucus Votes: 8,718
2008 Results:
Huck - 2,013 - 26%
Romney -2,435 - 31%
Thompson - 1,157 - 13%
McCain - 948 - 12%
Paul - 861 - 11%
Guliani - 401 - 5%
Hunter - 27/0%
Others - 41/0%
2012 Results:
Gingrich - 1,017 - 12%
Romney - 2,530 - 29%
Perry - 786 - 9%
Bachmann - 411 - 5%
Paul - 2,089 - 24%
Santorum - 1,818 - 21%
Huntsman - 64 - 1%
Others - 3 - 0%
Total 2004 General Election Votes: 110,740
Bush - 49,442 - 45% to Kerry - 60,442 - 55% + Others
Total 2008 General Election Votes: 113,707
McCain - 43,626 - 39% to Obama - 68,037 - 60% + Others
Total 2012 General Election Votes: 118,711
Romney - 47,622 - 40% to Obama - 68,581 - 58% + Others
Percentage of GOP Caucus Turnout based on final vote total for McCain and Romney:
2008: 7881/43626 = 18.0%
2012: 8718/47622 = 18.3%
Based on this, projected turnout from Linn County would be steady, about 18%. GOP Voters have decreased in the last decade, but to be competitive in the state, the GOP needs to win at least 43% of the vote. The projected 2016 General Election turnout is about 121,000 votes which means the GOP Candidate needs to get about 52,030 votes in November.
18.0% * 52,030 = Projected Caucus Turnout: 9,365 Voters
An increase of 600 voters. Trump is looking for an increase of 2K or more. It just doesn’t look possible at this moment, mainly because Linn has grown more Blue than Red.
As for the 9,365 Votes:
Cruz is currently running better than Santorum and Huckabee. At a Minimum, he has about 2,400 votes - 26%
Trump needs at least 40% here if he has any ideas of winning IA. That would be 3,746 Votes. While a 1,300 vote win in Linn would be good, he needs a 3-4K vote win there along with the other “blue” counties to have a chance. And based on the numbers I don’t see that. Based on the CBS Poll, I’d say he’s got just under 3000 votes here.
Clinton 50%, Trump 40%
Clinton 48%, Cruz 45%
Clinton 45%, Rubio 48%
You bet. I was talking to a lib friend of mine who worked for Hillary during the 2008 primaries. He didn't just vote for her, he went door to door for her.
He's 100% for Trump now. Amazing.
If you want a repeat of the Johnson/Goldwater election, than Cruz is your guy.
No republican is going to get the Reagan democrats because they simply don’t exist anymore in a meaningful way. Pandering to a ghost only loses the base.
In the case of Iowa and all the new voters supposedly coming out for Trump, they don’t appear to be registering to vote or changing to GOP.
I doubt cBS or many of these pollsters are counting Trump’s new caucus voters and he is making thousands of them in Iowa so they don’t get counted in their polls.
Trump is sitting pretty good in Iowa.
We could have had Ted at 100-1 odds in Las Vegas just a few months ago. I m not a gambler, but I m kicking myself. We could have made 10k on a $100 bet. Ugh!
USA TODAY GOP Power Rankings: Cruz the new king, Christie gains ground
As I mentioned earlier, if I could pick the next president (not the nominee, but president), it would be Ted Cruz. But I am a strong Trump supporter for the reason you just stated.
And how did a Hillary voter 8 years ago become a Trump voter today. Did they “magically” come to a realization of what the true meaning of conservatism is or are they just voting for something they recognize (better liberalism).
Here’s a suggestion: Make your friend listen to a full week’s worth of Rush Limbaugh and Mark Levin, then ask them for their impression. If they hate their guts, then your friend is still no conservative and their vote does no good.
Oh, and I get to vote in TWO primaries!! One in OH (presidential) then, again in August after we are AZ residents, I get to vote for Kelli Ward against McLame!
More like if you want to see the Reagan landslide, then Ted Cruz is your guy.
“Cruz will dominate Iowa— then the game resets. “
Yep, just like the GOP primary Iowa winners in 2012 and 2008, Santorum and Huckabee. The reset from first place to dropping out. Iowa is a jinx.
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