Posted on 10/22/2015 8:43:19 AM PDT by Kaslin
In a world in which the Cold War is a fading memory, North Korea and Cuba endure as museums of communism, so no one will forget how criminally insane it always was. In a world haunted by the specter of persistently falling prices, some countries are creating severe inflation, so we can be grateful for its virtual disappearance.
One of the governments providing this public service is that of Venezuela, where the currency has lost so much value that even robbers reject it. A recent carjacking victim told The New York Times his armed captors had no interest in his bolivars. They only wanted to know whether he had U.S. dollars stashed somewhere.
That sort of thing happens when annual inflation is over 150 percent. Feeding a family of five for a month cost three times more in August than it did a year before. Shortages abound; black markets are proliferating; and Venezuelans find themselves bartering goods and services to get by.
The source of the malady is plain: a socialist government that has mismanaged the economy, which is also feeling the pain of falling world prices for oil, the nation's chief export. "There's been a lack of respect and understanding of the implication of money printing and excessive money creation on the economy," former International Monetary Fund official Claudio Loser told The Wall Street Journal.
The more currency that is produced the less anyone wants it. "People are literally getting rid of money faster than the government can print it," Bank of America economist Francisco Rodriguez said.
Venezuelans find that their misery has only a little company. The yearly rate in Argentina has run above 20 percent for years and is now around 30 percent. Malawi is at 24 percent. Each day, the coins and bills their citizens carry buy less than the day before.
This may be hard for Americans to imagine, given their recent experience. On average, over the past five years, the consumer price index has risen at the minimal rate of 2 percent annually, and the inflation rate hasn't reached 4 percent since 1991. Many adults have never had the dread experience of watching prices rising rapidly across the board year after year.
Their elders, who were not so lucky, retain a fear of inflation in their bone marrow. Baby boomers were raised on lurid tales of hyperinflation in 1920s Germany, when consumers had to carry piles of money in wheelbarrows to do their normal shopping. That wasn't the worst of it. The trauma, we were taught, led to the rise of Adolf Hitler.
In the 1970s, we got our own taste of it. The U.S. inflation rate soared into double digits and stayed there. A bag of groceries that cost $20 in 1972 cost $46 in 1982. The price of gold skyrocketed from $38 per ounce to $615. Not much imagination was needed to picture a sudden run on wheelbarrows.
It didn't happen, thanks to a Federal Reserve that, in the early 1980s, slammed on the brakes by raising interest rates and curbing monetary growth. Since then, inflation has stayed tame -- to the point that these days, the debate is about whether we have enough of it. Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, recently argued that the central bank shouldn't raise interest rates until "we begin to see some sustained upward movement in core inflation."
That view is at odds with the demands of those Republicans who have been predicting a nasty outbreak of inflation since at least 2009. Conservatives once had to battle to get liberals to recognize the harm done by creating too much money. But rather than celebrate their victory, they keep fighting the last war. As a result, they ignore the new danger, which takes the form of deflation and slow growth.
In September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that U.S. inflation over the previous year was zero. The European Union's inflation was less than zero. Japan is in the same territory. Falling commodity prices are a threat to developing countries whose economies depend on exporting raw materials. A little inflation might be a good thing for growth.
No one would have imagined a couple of decades ago that we would learn how to stop high inflation and keep it stopped. Like communism, it can still be found in a few places. But like communism, it's no longer much of a threat.
With respect to the ethanol mandate, yes, I would say you missed something. The amount mandated for fuel has gone up every year since the law went into effect until 2013 [it's under the control of the EPA.]
Even when the blend percentage in gasoline does not go up -- basically it can't because Ethanol is already too destructive in internal combustion engines -- the corn is still purchased and ostensibly converted to ethanol. It may very well be rotting in US govt. grain storage as corn starch, converted to ethanol and burned up... who knows? We have several BILLION pounds of nonfat dry milk converted from excess production purchased by USDA over the last several decades to manipulate butterfat/milk prices.
EPA has actually missed its targets every year, thank God. In 2015, they decided to end the moratorium and increase the quota yet again. http://dailycaller.com/2015/05/29/despite-thunderous-opposition-epa-increases-the-ethanol-mandate/
Please reread your Milton Friedman. His fundamental thesis is now regarded as law by all economists, even Keynesians. See here, for one example among many: http://www.nber.org/papers/w1453
Inflation is ALWAYS a function of MONETARY POLICY -- Milton Friedman.
Put the pointy hat on and go sit on the stool in the corner until you commit that to heart. Increasing demand pressure does NOT have to create inflation. Increasing productivity does NOT have to cause deflation. A sound monetary policy keeps both of those pressures in check without [do I have to say it?] inflation.
My father in law told me a D-bar (a huge, mega thick Nestle’s candy bar) saved his life in WW2.
He was in a fire fight with a German. They both stood up hiding behind something and fired at each other at the same time. The German’s bullet hit the pocket with the D-bar, converting it to “coca powder” and deflected off. The German apparently wasn’t as lucky.
If you look at the three major money supply measures, M0 (cash/currency in circulation), it is indeed relatively flat meaning that the actual amount of folding money and coin hasn't changed much. THAT is what is being reported as the basis for the no inflation claim.
However, the other two principle measures: M1 (M0 plus Checking Accounts) and M2 (M1 plus Savings Accounts), show significant inflation: M1 has grown by 6.7% in the last year, and M2 has grown 5.4% in the last year.
One other interesting measure "Loans to the Private Sector" has grown a whopping 10.2%!! In an economy where more and more purchases are made through credit instruments and not cash, M0 as a measure of inflation is increasingly irrelevant.
Inflation is real, it has been with us all along, it's just being hidden in the Credit boom rather than evident in cash. Wheel barrows are only needed to haul cash around ... not credit cards, mortgage loans and consumer credit loans.
In the end, the inflation of the money supply through credit is responsible for the increases in prices. So, yes ... all are correct in their assessment that inflation is not zero. The only thing not growing is the amount of folding money and coin running around ... a component of the money supply that has rapidly fallen into disuse and as a result has become not a very reliable indicator of inflation!
The argument now is that "real" inflation is measured only by obscure monetary metrics involving M3 etc., and ..... here's the kicker ......price increases are not inflation.
So inflation isn't inflation, only bankers' discontent is real inflation, and if prices rise 200%, you can't complain (which is the bottom line).
Delinking consumer prices from "real inflation" has been the object all along of this charade.
Bump for later.
The official definition of inflation is “too many dollars chasing to few goods”. I can remember my econ instructor repeating that over and over ad nauseum....
Somewhere in the early part of that if I recall correctly, the size of the can went from 6 oz. to 5 oz., too.
I have a can of tuna right here in my office. I'll check.
Yup. It's 5 ozs. I don't remember what size it was in 2007.
Yes. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon.
Lots of people here don’t realize that shrinking package sizes boost the inflation number. So you need to look elsewhere for the cause.
Incorrect.
One of the reasons inflation is “lower” is because fuel prices have dropped. So much for your #2.
check this out:
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/243438-epa-sets-ethanol-blending-requirements
I was actually thinking of the amount set by Congress...but you are are right, in that the amount in the real world goes up each year as sort of secondarily mandated by the EPA.
I wish I wasn’t on my phone, so I could link to “common misperceptions about the CPI.” This thread has most of them.
Why is my best work completely unintentional? LOL!
I don't think you can use general tire wear and tear that as an indication of inflation. You have to use the same car and same tire for replacement costs. None of the cars I've had in the last 30 years got anywhere near 70K miles. I've been close to 50K a couple of times by keeping the tires overinflated most of the time. Wearing the tire down to the legal minimum of 2/32 tread is actually pretty stupid unless you live in an arid climate.
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