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Keyword: deflation

Brevity: Headers | « Text »
  • Europe Is Suddenly Booming — This Is Why

    03/24/2015 11:15:09 AM PDT · by blam · 16 replies
    BI ^ | 3-24-2015 | Mike Bird
    Mike Bird March 24, 2015Things are finally looking up again for Europe. The pace of the eurozone's sudden improvement across a bundle of economic indicators has shocked analysts since the turn of the year. But there has been a rapid turnaround from gloom to boom in just a few months. What's going on? As recently as Autumn, everyone thought Europe was bogged down in a protracted perma-recession, characterised by deflation, lack of GDP growth and continent-wide political paralysis. Here's what's going on, and why. (snip)
  • Fiat Currency and German Bonds

    03/14/2015 4:09:33 AM PDT · by OwenKellogg · 10 replies
    The American Thinker ^ | March 12, 2015 | Francis X. Ryan
    ~snip~ Germany was able to sell $3.72 billion of five-year bonds at a negative interest rate of .08%. In essence those who lent Germany this money were willing to pay the German government for the privilege of the government holding the investor’s funds for 5 years. The move reflects, in reality, that investors are more concerned about the return of principle than the return on principle. ~snip~ The disastrous consequences of the current economic policies allow negative interest rates to occur. Negative interest rates are a clear sign of an impending deflationary spiral. ~snip~ Just as the housing market and...
  • Gold's Obituary... Phase 2 Now Underway

    03/10/2015 5:45:25 PM PDT · by blam · 16 replies
    TMO ^ | 3-10-2015 | David Petch
    March 2015 David Petch This article is an update of Gold’s Obituary published back at the end of October 2014. Nothing has changed since that forecast, except the passage of time to arrive at where we are today. Analysis will cover a few currencies and different markets, which should provide a flavour of where things are heading over the next 6-8 months. As a hint, being long commodities as a whole is not recommended in the slightest. I was going to start things off with the Canadian Dollar which should find support no sooner than 72 cents, but since it...
  • Another Recession is on the way

    02/28/2015 9:43:53 AM PST · by Kaslin · 22 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | February 28, 2015 | Mike Shedlock
    In 2006-2007 I called for a recession. We got a big one. I called for another one in 2011, as did the ECRI. That recession never happened. 50% is not a very good recession predicting track record except in comparison to consensus economic opinions that have never once in history predicted a recession. Consensus opinion is batting a perfect 0.00% Investigating the Record By the way, the ECRI was late in calling the recession of 2007. They still deny it. And questions regarding the 2001 recession and ECRI have still not been answered. I have talked about all of this...
  • The Fed Waited Too Long: Here Comes Inflation

    02/27/2015 11:07:24 AM PST · by blam · 42 replies
    EcoMatters - TMO ^ | 2-27-2015 | EcoMatters
    EcoMatters February 26, 2015 CPI Core Shows Inflation The drop in energy prices, had the knee jerk reaction that we were in a deflationary spiral, again markets get many things wrong on first blush. The drop in energy prices is inflationary in the overall economy, and today`s CPI report showed what a sophisticated analysis would forecast regarding inflation and the role that low energy prices play in the overall inflation equation. We are going to have a transfer from the food and energy components which rely heavily on energy costs into the core inflation reading as consumers have more money...
  • Bank of Israel cuts rate to historic low

    02/23/2015 9:29:28 AM PST · by Olog-hai · 2 replies
    Yedioth Ahronoth News ^ | 02.23.15, 18:10 | Amnon Atad
    The Bank of Israel lowered its benchmark interest rate on Monday to an all-time low of 0.1 percent on Monday. The move came as a surprise, after 11 of 12 economists polled by Reuters had expected the central bank to stand pat. The central bank cut the rate to signal its determination to push back against the negative inflation holding down the market towards its intended annual target of one to three percent. Lowering the interest rate theoretically leads to an increase in demand within the market and helps increase prices towards the inflation target which the Bank of Israel...
  • Is The Oil Price Decline a Sign of Impending Deflation?

    02/22/2015 10:09:49 AM PST · by OwenKellogg · 14 replies
    American Thinker ^ | February 19, 2015 | Frank Ryan, CPA
    Conventional wisdom indicates slowing global economy and increased production are the root causes behind the precipitous drop in oil prices since mid-2014. ~~ snip ~~ Further signs of the impact of deflation, despite trillions of stimulus funds, include: 1.Negative interest rates on short-term securities and debt instruments. 2.The reduction of risk premiums in short and long-term debt financing for governments. 3.Increasing costs of healthcare for virtually every American, which adversely affects disposable income. 4.Declining real wages in the United States due to tax increases at the state and local levels. 5.Declines in labor force participation rates. 6.Lack of wage growth...
  • How central banks have lost control of the world

    02/19/2015 7:36:29 PM PST · by Lorianne · 15 replies
    telegraph.co.uk ^ | 17 February 2015 | Mehreen Khan
    From engaging in 'competitive easing' to provoking international currency wars, have we finally reached the limit of what monetary policy can achieve? Click on the countries below to find out ___ The world's oldest central bank has ventured into uncharted territory. Last week, Sweden's Riksbank slashed its main policy rate into negative territory. In doing so, it became the 14th central bank to ease monetary policy so far this year, but the first to actually take its "repo rate" below zero to -0.1pc. This means Sweden is actually charging its banks to lend money. In Britain, the same interest rate...
  • Hyperinflation To Start in 2015: Economist Says Get Supplies : “Gold, Silver, Canned Goods...

    02/19/2015 6:50:53 PM PST · by blam · 76 replies
    SHTF Plan ^ | 2-9-2015 | Mac Slavo - John Williams
    Mac Slavo February 19th, 2015It’s impossible to predict when and how our economy will finally reach a breaking point, but according to contrarian Shadow Stats economist John Williams it’s coming one way or the other. The only thing we can do now is to prepare for it and that means stockpiling critical supplies, just like you might for an earthquake or snowstorm, but in larger quantities. Because, if and when hyperinflation starts people will quickly realize that their dollars are worthless. And as we have seen time and again, and most recently in Russia, when a currency rapidly loses its...
  • Gold Price $250 Forecast - Dear Harry Dent: Wanna Bet?

    02/19/2015 2:43:10 PM PST · by blam · 56 replies
    TMO ^ | 2-19-2015 | Jeff Clark
    February 18, 2015 Jeff_Clark Some of you may be aware that investment guru Harry Dent has publicly stated that gold will fall to $250-$400. He specifically predicted: Around $700/ounce is a certainty in gold by 2015 to 2016, and $250 is a possibility well down the line by 2020–2023. His forecast is largely based on his belief that deflation will prevail. Governments are fighting deflation. If government stimulus fails, we will have deflation, not inflation. (snip) As a gold analyst who’s spent every day of the last seven-plus years watching this market, I can’t let this pass. I’m sure gold...
  • All Bubbles Burst: China's Real Estate Market Crashing, Eurogroup Prepare For Grexit & Default...

    02/18/2015 10:23:39 AM PST · by alexmark1917 · 6 replies
    China's Real Estate Market Crashing... Real Estate is the single biggest domestic lending segment in China. Combined with deflation in Iron Ore, Steel, Copper, and other industrial metals China's collateral quality is looking very very shaky compared to loan volume... SNIP While the world's attention is glued to events in Greece, the real action continues to evolve quietly thousands of kilometers east, in China, where the near record surge in new loans remains unable to offset the dramatic slowdown in shadow banking issuance. And while China's bubble-chasing, animal spirits have recently reoriented themselves from real estate to the stock market,...
  • Japan's Recession Is Over

    02/15/2015 4:22:40 PM PST · by blam · 13 replies
    BI ^ | 2-15-2015 | Leika Kihara and Tetsushi Kajimoto, Reuters
    Leika Kihara and Tetsushi Kajimoto, Reuters Februry 15, 2015 TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's economy rebounded from recession to grow an annualized 2.2 percent in the final quarter of last year, giving a much-needed boost to premier Shinzo Abe's efforts to shake off decades of stagnation even as the global outlook deteriorates. But the expansion was smaller than a 3.7 percent increase forecast in a Reuters poll, suggesting a fragile recovery for the world's third-largest economy as consumer mood remained soft and uneven global growth weighed on exports. Still, the return to growth will allow the Bank of Japan to hold...
  • Feel That? It's The Chill Of Deflation

    02/09/2015 10:55:30 AM PST · by blam · 24 replies
    TMO ^ | 2-9-2015 | Chris Mayer
    February 08, 2015 Chris Mayer writes: That chill in the air? This is what deflation feels like... Right now, the 10-year U.S. Treasury pays just 1.8%... oil is $50 a barrel... commodity prices drift near to chilling lows... and the dollar is near multiyear highs. These are all deflationary trends. What deflation means for you as an investor is what I want to explore today. As an investor in stocks, there is a safe path through a deflationary Ice age. I'll get to that in a moment. But first... what exactly is deflation? The economic word deflation, says the Oxford...
  • Three Reasons Why Lower Oil Prices Won't Lead To A 'Deflationary Spiral'

    02/01/2015 10:32:20 AM PST · by blam · 25 replies
    BI ^ | 2-1-2015 | Myles Udland
    Myles Udland Febuary 1, 2015Economists and central bankers hate deflation because of "deflationary spirals." A "deflationary spiral" occurs when lower prices cause consumers to wait for even lower prices, creating excess production capacity, excess inventory, and ever-lower prices and so on. It is a circular pattern. In a note to clients last week, Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Ethan Harris took to task the idea that the deflation — or really, disinflation — that we're seeing due to the crash in oil prices will lead to a much-feared "deflationary spiral." Harris outlines this basic sketch as what some members...
  • Eurozone, Including Germany, in Deflation

    01/31/2015 10:47:31 AM PST · by Kaslin · 5 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | January 31, 2015 | Mike Shedlock
    Eurostat released HICP Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices statistics today. In spite of promising that deflation would not hit again, here we are, and for the second month too. Euro area annual inflation is expected to be -0.6% in January 2015, down from -0.2% in December 2014 according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. This negative rate for euro area annual inflation in January is driven by the fall in energy prices (-8.9%, compared with -6.3% in December). Prices are also expected to fall for food, alcohol & tobacco (-0.1%, compared with 0.0%...
  • Eurozone deflation hits –0.6%

    01/30/2015 6:32:21 AM PST · by Olog-hai · 13 replies
    European Voice ^ | 01/30/2015 11:42 CET | Dave Keating
    The eurozone experienced negative inflation for the second month in a row, according to a flash estimate published today (30 January) by Eurostat, the European Union’s statistical office. Inflation is expected to be at −0.6%, with consumer prices falling further than economists had forecast. The fall represents the biggest decline in prices in the history of the euro. […] The drop was driven by the fall in energy prices (−8.9%, compared with −6.3% in December). […] The deflationary spiral comes as Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), is trying to tackle deflation with a policy of...
  • Global downsides: 1 high debt; 2 Lack of growth and deflation; 3 Fragile EM...

    01/28/2015 3:11:59 PM PST · by alexmark1917 · 1 replies
    Rajan: "Today, debt is making it difficult for developed countries to resume pre-2008 growth rates" http://t.co/hi4QoAqSA8 — Project Syndicate (@ProSyn) January 18, 2015 Today, debt is making it difficult for developed countries to resume pre-2008 growth rates, let alone restore the levels of GDP that would have been attained if the subsequent Great Recession had not happened. Meanwhile, industrial countries’ overall debt/GDP ratios are continuing to grow. In emerging markets, slow growth in the advanced economies has shut down a traditional development path: export-led growth. As a result, emerging markets have had to rely once again on domestic demand. This...
  • While You Were Sleeping, Lehman Just Happened...

    01/21/2015 2:51:17 PM PST · by alexmark1917 · 24 replies
    The "Deflationary Vortex": Global Dollar Economy Suffers Biggest Plunge Since Lehman, Down $4 Trillion One of the macroeconomic observations that has gotten absolutely no mention in recent months is the curious fact that while global economic growth has not imploded in recent quarters, it is because GDP has been represented, as is customary, in local currency terms. Of course, this comes as a time when local currencies (at least those which are not the USD) have been plunging against the greenback on the back of the expectations that the Fed will hike rates some time in the summer or later...
  • World deflationary forces have swept away Switzerland's defences

    01/16/2015 5:49:10 PM PST · by Lorianne · 17 replies
    Telegraph (UK) ^ | 15 Junuary 2015 | Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
    The Swiss National Bank has lost control. It is the latest in a list of venerable central banks to be overwhelmed by deflationary forces and global economic disorder. The country is already in deflation. The Swiss franc ended Thursday 13pc higher after the SNB abandoned its three-year efforts to defend a currency floor of 1.20 to the euro. “We have a free exchange rate once again,” said the SNB’s president, Thomas Jordan. Indeed, but nobody is fooled by the SNB’s attempt to spin this as benign. “This is a huge hit to their credibility,” said Deutsche Bank. The official statement...
  • Get Ready For The Worst Inflation Number In 6 Years

    01/15/2015 9:39:57 PM PST · by blam · 54 replies
    BI ^ | 1-15-2015 | Myles Udland
    Myles Udland January 15, 2015 The crash in oil prices might be good for consumers, but it's terrible for inflation data. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the consumer price index on Friday morning at 8:30 ET. The index is a measure of consumer prices, and the most popularly cited measure of inflation. Expectations are for headline inflation to fall 0.4% in December compared to the prior month, which would be the largest month-on-month decline since December 2008. Compared to last year, headline inflation is set to rise 0.7%. "Core" inflation — which strips out the...
  • Warning: Bond rates are going negative

    01/15/2015 6:38:42 PM PST · by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin · 57 replies
    CNN Money ^ | 15 January 2015 | Matt Egan
    Investors are so nervous that they are basically willing to lose money when they buy some government bonds. It's part of the latest fad in finance that's all the rage: "going negative." The yields on government bonds in Europe and Japan have dipped into the uncharted waters of negative territory. That means buyers of those bonds are essentially taking a loss just to hold onto those assets. They think their money is better off losing a few cents than putting it elsewhere. "It's basically a fee for fear," said Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at ConvergEx. "Fear of deflation, fear...
  • One Of The Best Predictors Of Recessions Is Rapidly Approaching The Here-Comes-A-Recession Level

    01/15/2015 9:16:59 AM PST · by blam · 45 replies
    BI ^ | 1-15-2015 | Myles Udland
    Myles Udland January 15, 2015 Here's a word no one wants to hear: "recession." Headline payroll gains were strong in 2014 and GDP growth has been above 3% in four of the last five quarters. So everything is good, right? Well, one indicator that has a perfect record of predicting recessions is creeping towards some uncomfortable levels: the yield curve. The yield curve, or the interest rate paid on the range of US Treasury bonds, typically ranges from low to high: the shortest duration bills are paid the least interest, with investors earning additional yield for lending the government for...
  • Operation Helicopter: Could Free Money Help the Euro Zone?

    01/09/2015 1:19:20 AM PST · by Olog-hai · 8 replies
    Der Spiegel ^ | January 06, 2015 – 12:22 PM | Anne Seith
    It sounds at first like a crazy thought experiment: One morning, every resident of the eurozone comes home to find a check in their mailbox worth over €500 ($597) and possibly as much as €3,000. A gift, just like that, sent by the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt. The scenario is less absurd than it may sound. Indeed, many serious academics and financial experts are demanding exactly that. They want ECB chief Mario Draghi to fire up the printing presses and hand out money directly to the people. The logic behind the idea is that recipients of the money...
  • Stocks And Commodities - The Deflationary Myth

    01/08/2015 9:23:42 PM PST · by blam · 15 replies
    TMO ^ | 1-8-2015 | Toby_Connor
    Toby Conner January 08, 2015 With commodities now moving down into their three year cycle low I’m hearing more and more talk about deflation. This is complete nonsense. Bernanke had it exactly right when he pointed out that any determined government could halt deflation at will with a printing press. As a matter of fact the only mildly deflationary event we’ve seen since 1932 was a brief period during 2008 and early 2009. Bernanke succeeded in stopping it in its tracks almost immediately with QE1. In order to experience deflation there must be debt defaults. That’s what happened in 2008....
  • ECONOMIST WARNS: Deflation Is Coming To The US

    01/08/2015 11:11:38 AM PST · by blam · 44 replies
    BI ^ | 1-8-2015 | Shane Ferro
    Shane FerroJanuary 8, 2015Deflation is coming. In a new note to clients, BNP Paribas's Laura Rosner writes that low oil prices could drag headline inflation in the US into negative territory in the first two quarters of 2015. Rosner writes: Under our new forecast, the quarterly y/y rate of headline inflation falls below zero in Q1 and Q2 2015 (-0.3% and -0.4%, respectively). We still expect the energy price shock to have only transitory effects (maximum impact in 2015) and limited pass through into core, though we will be re-evaluating that assumption over time. Our forecast assumes household and business...
  • DEFLATION IS HERE

    01/07/2015 5:55:13 AM PST · by blam · 31 replies
    BI ^ | 1-7-2015 | Mike Bird
    Mike Bird January 7, 2015 After a year of anticipation, deflation has finally arrived in Europe. Consumer prices dropped 0.2% in the year to December. The consensus was that inflation would drop to about zero or -0.1%. Inflation in Germany, Europe's healthiest large economy, is at just 0.1%. Spain has already recorded months of deflation, and its consumer prices fell 1.1% in December from the same time last year. With oil prices still tumbling, it's clear that falling consumer price inflation still has further to go. Nobody is disputing what pushed inflation over the zero mark. It's the decline in...
  • Deflation And The Year Ahead

    01/07/2015 5:24:51 AM PST · by blam · 5 replies
    TMO ^ | Clif_Droke
    Januarary 07, 2015 Clif_Droke Stocks were hit by selling pressure on Monday as the S&P 500 (SPX) declined 1.83% and the Dow 30 shed 1.86%. The energy sector bore the brunt of the selling with the NYSE Oil Index declining 4.61%. Crude oil prices also dropped nearly 5% for the day to close at 5 ½-year lows. Fears that Greece may exit the euro zone are being blamed on the latest broad market decline. Upcoming elections in Greece have spooked many investors, who feel that the country's exit from the euro zone would be disastrous. The most likely reason for...
  • German inflation lowest since October 2009

    01/05/2015 3:13:02 PM PST · by Olog-hai · 1 replies
    TheLocal.de ^ | 05 Jan 2015 14:53 GMT+01:00 | (AFP)
    Inflation in Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, slowed to just 0.2 percent in December, its lowest level in more than five years, and averaged 0.9 percent for the whole of 2014, according to new figures released on Monday. […] Using the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)—the yardstick used by the European Central Bank—inflation in Germany was even lower at 0.1 percent in December, way under the ECB’s annual inflation target of just below 2.0 percent. The chronically low level of inflation across the single currency bloc has fueled concern the region could slip into deflation—a sustained and widespread drop in...
  • 2015: Why's the Oil Price Collapsing? Answer: $8+ Trillion Carry Trade

    01/03/2015 11:14:15 AM PST · by blam · 61 replies
    TMO ^ | 1-3-2015 | DK Matai
    By: DK_Matai Most in the media are utterly clueless about what's coming in 2015. It is incumbent upon ATCA 5000 to clarify the situation as we did prior to the start of The Great Reset and The Great Unwind during 2007-2008 based on our global intelligence gathering, detailed scenario planning and mathematical modelling of capital allocation and trans-national flows: 1. The price of oil has fallen by more than half from its recent peak in mid-2014 and continues to remain in relative free fall in 2015; 2. The US dollar, in which oil is denominated, is soaring against almost all...
  • Food Stamps, Subprime and Hyperinflation

    01/01/2015 1:58:06 PM PST · by blam · 28 replies
    The Daily Signal/Heritage Foundation;The Market Oracle.co.UK ^ | December 22, 2014 Daily Signal; January 1, 2015 | Alexandra Gourdikian ;Dr Jeff Lewis
    January 1, 2015 Dr_Jeff_Lewis The next generation will look back at the current period with utter astonishment. The archives will be riddled with debates and all manner of euphemisms for what led to the collapse of the world’s first and last fiat reserve currency. It is a process well underway. Take a look at two seemingly unrelated, though current, economic-financial trends: Food stamps and subprime. The case of spending compared with risk. Food assistance is but a tiny tributary broken off from a massive river of denial. Subprime represents the nadir of ‘risk-on’ fueled monetary euphoria. Spending that comes from...
  • Oil Is On 'An Incessant March Downwards'

    12/10/2014 5:06:02 AM PST · by blam · 57 replies
    BI - Reuters ^ | 12-10-2014 | Adam Rose
    Adam Rose, Reuters December 10, 2014 Brent crude remained above $66 barrel on Wednesday, after resuming its drift downward amid a glut of oil on the market, following a short-lived reprieve the previous day when a weaker dollar had provided some support to prices. Worries about oversupply have pushed Brent down 40% since June. "Notwithstanding day-to-day movements, the fundamental picture hasn't really changed, and that is one of supply outstripping demand growth for most of the year," said Phin Ziebell, a senior analyst at National Australia Bank. "It's an incessant march downwards, and it would be interesting to see where...
  • ECB paralyzed by split as irreversible deflation trap draws closer

    12/05/2014 6:07:09 PM PST · by Lorianne · 8 replies
    Telegraph (UK) ^ | Ambrose Evans Pritchard
    The European Central Bank has dashed hopes for quantitative easing this year and acknowledged for the first time that the institution’s elite board is split on plans for a €1 trillion liquidity blitz. Equity markets fell across southern Europe,with Italy’s MIB off 2.77pc, led by sharp falls in bank stocks. Spain’s IBEX dropped 2.35pc. The euro surged by more than 1pc to $1.2455 against the dollar in early trading as speculators rushed to cover short positions. Expectations for immediate stimulus had been riding high after the ECB’s president, Mario Draghi, pledged action “as fast as possible” last month. The bank...
  • GOLD! (Exploding Higher $1219 Oz)

    12/01/2014 10:59:53 AM PST · by blam · 17 replies
    BI ^ | 12-1-2014 | Myles Udland
    Myles Udland December 1, 2014 Gold is exploding higher. In afternoon trade on Monday, gold futures were up better than 3.5% in the last 24 hours to around $1,215 an ounce, moving back above $1,200 for the first time in more than a week. The spike in gold reverses a plunge in gold late last week that was continued on Sunday night as the futures market re-opened after voters in Switzerland rejected a measure that would have required the Swiss National Bank to increase its gold holdings from 8% to 20%. Oil, which also got crushed last week, is also...
  • Gold Surges Over $50 Off Overnight Lows; Commodities Bouncing As Dollar Weakens

    12/01/2014 7:05:44 AM PST · by blam · 12 replies
    Zero Hedge ^ | 12-1-2014 | Tyler Durden
    Tyler Durden 12/01/2014After last night's big flush across commodities, they have rallied notably. Gold is now up over $50 from those lows, with Silver, copper, and even crude bouncing hard (after testing below $64 overnight). The USD is notably weaker, stocks lower, and bond yields testing mid-October flash-crash Bullard lows...(snip)
  • Deflation Is Going To Cause A Scary New Kind Of Debt Crisis

    12/01/2014 6:37:55 AM PST · by blam · 19 replies
    BI - Money Week ^ | 12-1-2014 | Merryn Somerset Webb
    Merryn Somerset WebbDecember 1, 2014 Russell Napier is a financial historian and the founder of ERIC, an online research firm that aims at connecting analysts and investors. Here he talks to Merryn Somerset Webb about the next deflationary bust – why it’s coming, what it means for you, and how you can survive it. Merryn Somerset Webb: Let’s start at the beginning. You are a firm believer, as I understand it, in the idea that we live in a deflationary environment and there’s almost nothing that central banks can do to change that. So, maybe talk a little bit about...
  • GOLD IS GETTING SMOKED ($1150 Oz)

    11/30/2014 5:02:41 PM PST · by blam · 100 replies
    BI ^ | 11-30-2014 | Myles Udland
    Myles Udland November 30, 2014 On Sunday night, gold was down more than 4% to as low as $1,143 an ounce after voters in Switzerland on Sunday rejected a measure that would have required the Swiss National Bank to increase its gold reserves from 8% to 20% of its holdings. The vote failed by a margin of 78%-22%. In addition the drop in gold, crude oil prices are resuming their tumble, and the price of other precious metals — silver and platinum — were also down sharply. Silver futures were down 12% early Sunday night and platinum futures were down...
  • OIL KEEPS PLUNGING ($66.15 Bl)

    11/29/2014 6:49:24 AM PST · by blam · 109 replies
    BI ^ | 11-29-2014 | Myles Udland
    Myles Udland November 28, 2014Oil is still falling. In afternoon trade on Friday, West Texas Intermediate crude prices in the US dropped more than 10% to settle at $66.15 a barrel, a more than $7.50 drop in just 24 hours. At one point on Friday, WTI futures briefly breached $66. Brent crude prices, which are the global benchmark, also cracked $70 a barrel on Friday. Earlier this week, WTI prices were at around $76 and Brent prices were near $80. (snip)(snip)
  • EUROPE'S PLUNGE INTO DEFLATION IS COMING

    11/28/2014 7:01:49 AM PST · by blam · 26 replies
    BI ^ | 11-28-2014 | Mike Bird
    Mike Bird November 28, 2014 Eurozone inflation figures just released put the rate at 0.3% in November, down from October's 0.4% and in line with estimates. With the recent impact of oil prices, that means deflation isn't just a possibility for the eurozone: markets are now suggesting it's the most likely outcome in a few months' time. Analysts had forecast that that the rate would come in at 0.3% again, though some suggested it could fall as low as 02% The ECB currently targets 2% inflation, but that target was last reached in the summer of 2012. These numbers increase...
  • Falling inflation a worry for Europe but also the world

    11/23/2014 6:55:14 PM PST · by Tolerance Sucks Rocks · 60 replies
    Reuters ^ | November 23, 2014 | Ross Finley
    (Reuters) - European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has moved closer to launching sovereign debt purchases and data this week will show just how dangerously low inflation has fallen in the $13 trillion euro zone economy. A sickly Europe has held back global economic growth for years, and now it is contributing significantly to powerful forces already dragging down inflation across the globe. A spectacular drop in crude oil prices over the past month will be the center of discussion when ministers from the world's top oil exporters meets in Vienna on Friday.
  • What Are The Odds In 2015: Inflation Or Deflation?

    11/13/2014 12:04:54 PM PST · by blam · 11 replies
    TMO ^ | 11-13-2014 | TCE
    The Cultural Economist Nov 13, 2014 TCE ( The Cultural Economist) writes: Like other Central Banks, the U. S. Federal Reserve has “printed” copious quantities of money. Despite better GDP numbers and positive media commentary, much of the American economy continues to be lethargic. The Eurozone appears increasingly vulnerable to recession. Financial and geopolitical risks could derail economic growth. What are the long term trends that will shape the outcome? The Case for Inflation Oil As I have documented several times, the rate of inflation is sensitive to the price we pay for a barrel of oil. Political turmoil in...
  • ECB ready to pump €1 trillion into euro zone economy

    11/07/2014 3:51:45 PM PST · by TigerLikesRooster · 16 replies
    Irish Times ^ | Fri, Nov 7, 2014
    ECB ready to pump €1 trillion into euro zone economy Central bank ramps up efforts to rescue single currency bloc from deflation risk The European Central Bank is ready to inject up to €1 trillion of new liquidity into the euro zone economy as it ramps up efforts to rescue the single currency bloc from the risk of Japanese-style deflation, Mario Draghi confirmed yesterday. The ECB president also said the central bank’s governing council was unanimous in its commitment to use further unconventional tools, including quantitative easing, should economic conditions deteriorate. He added that the central bank had stepped up...
  • Gold Price Falls, Stocks Record Highs As Japan Goes ‘Weimar’

    10/31/2014 5:52:01 PM PDT · by blam · 30 replies
    The Market Oracle ^ | 10-31-2014 | Gold Core
    Gold Core October 31, 2014 Stocks globally surged, while gold fell sharply today despite renewed hopes that the Bank of Japan’s vastly increasing money printing will fill some of the gaps left by the apparent end of Federal Reserve bond buying. The BOJ decided to increase the pace at which it expands base money to a whopping 80 trillion yen ($726 billion) per year. Previously, the BOJ targeted an annual increase of 60 to 70 trillion yen. The BOJ sailed into deeper uncharted monetary territory with the announcement that they would triple annual purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Japanese...
  • Japan's central bank shocks markets with more easing as inflation slows

    10/31/2014 6:39:04 AM PDT · by TigerLikesRooster · 1 replies
    Reuters ^ | Oct 31, 2014 | Leika Kihara and Tetsushi Kajimoto
    Japan's central bank shocks markets with more easing as inflation slows By Leika Kihara and Tetsushi Kajimoto TOKYO Fri Oct 31, 2014 10:47am GMT (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan shocked global financial markets on Friday by expanding its massive stimulus spending in a stark admission that economic growth and inflation have not picked up as much as expected after a sales tax hike in April. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda portrayed the board's tightly-split decision to buy more assets as a preemptive strike to keep policy on track, rather than an admission that his plan to reflate the long moribund-economy...
  • The dangers of deflation The pendulum swings to the pit

    10/23/2014 10:43:12 AM PDT · by expat_panama · 89 replies
    The Economist ^ | Oct 25th 2014 | [editors]
    [snip]The lowflation of being consistently below an already low target is bad in itself; the deflation it could easy lead to is even worse. There are several reasons. The belief that money made tomorrow will be worth less than money today stymies investment; the belief that goods bought tomorrow will be cheaper than goods bought today chokes consumption. Central bankers can no longer set real (that is, inflation-adjusted) interest rates low enough to restore demand. Wages, incomes and tax revenue all stall, undermining the ability of households, businesses and governments to pay their debts—debts which, in real terms, will grow...
  • EU's triple whammy: Recession, deflation, and debt

    10/16/2014 7:34:02 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 5 replies
    American Thinker ^ | 10/16/2014 | Rick Moran
    Here we go again. Another sovereign debt crisis on the periphery of the EU is underway and many of the same factors that led to previous debt meltdowns are present. Germany is headed for a triple dip recession. Continent-wide deflation is nearly a reality. And many EU nations are smashing the debt limits demanded by treaty, thus threatening the Euro itself. All of this is impacting the percentage of debt in relation to GDP in several countries, making government bonds more expensive and debt servicing a nightmare. The Hill: Among Europe's most recent economic tremors has been the growing evidence...
  • Dam breaks in Europe as deflation fears wash over ECB rhetoric

    10/11/2014 4:43:05 PM PDT · by Chgogal · 39 replies
    The Telegraph (UK) ^ | October 10, 2014 | Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
    'We are reaching the end game in Europe. If they don’t launch real QE soon, the consequences are too awful to contemplate,' warns RBS. A key gauge of deflation risk in Europe is flashing red, dropping to record lows on fears of fresh recession and lack of decisive action by the European Central Bank. The sudden lurch downwards came as Bank of America warned that France’s debt ratio could rocket to 120pc of GDP within five years, unless the EU authorities take radical steps to reflate the region’s economy. Italy’s debt could threaten 150pc even earlier. The 5-year/5-year forward swap...
  • ALBERT EDWARDS: A $1,000 For A Wicker Basket? Sell Everything And Run For Your Lives!

    10/09/2014 7:01:06 AM PDT · by blam · 15 replies
    BI ^ | 10-9-2014 | Myles Udland
    Myles UdlandOctober 9, 2014Uber-bear Albert Edwards, a strategist at Societe Generale, is out with a new note to clients about market tops and expensive baskets. Edwards highlights the following comment from this weekend's Financial Times that said the following: Sir: The next financial apocalypse is imminent. I know this to be true because the (FT Weekend) House and Home section is now assuming the epic proportions last seen before the great crash. Twenty four pages chock full of adverts for mansions and wicker tea trays for $1,000. You’re all mad. Sell everything and run for your lives.(snip)
  • Will Gold Crash With The Dow... Or Soar?

    10/06/2014 8:01:10 PM PDT · by blam · 44 replies
    Zero Hedge ^ | 10-6-2014 | Tyler Durden
    Tyler Durden 10/06/2014 In 2008, we projected that the crash in the market was in fact a mini-crash and that the day would come when a more major crash would occur - one that reflected the level of debt. In recent months, this prognostication has been gaining traction - that a second, more severe crash is inevitable. There are two primary camps amongst economists with regard to the economic direction that a crash will generate: inflationists and deflationists. Inflationists tend to feel that the governments of the world that are now in debt over their heads will do what governments...
  • A New Interest Rates Record Is Set... And It Is Foreboding

    08/17/2014 9:08:33 PM PDT · by blam · 20 replies
    Market Oeracle ^ | 8-17-2014 | Daily Wealth
    August 17, 2014 DailyWealth Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: A new record was set in Germany yesterday... The interest rate on a 10-year government bond in Germany fell below 1%. This number is shocking... Interest rates have never been this low in German history. What does it mean? Why would people agree to lend money to a government for 10 years with almost no return on that money? What is the message that we should take from this? Aren't things supposed to be getting back to "normal"? And doesn't "normal" mean something like this: By 2020, the Federal Reserve has short-term...
  • Negative Nominal Interest Rates: Highway to a Cashless, Statist Hell

    06/26/2014 10:26:02 PM PDT · by GraceG · 13 replies
    Barnhardt.biz ^ | 06-26-2014 | Ann Barnhardt
    I warned about this in part two of my 2.5 hour Economics Video Presentation back in November of ARSH 2012, and, sure enough, it has now happened. Because, as I have been saying all along, for anyone who knows ANYTHING about ANYTHING having to do with economics, finance and/or banking, and who does not have their brain bucket completely and firmly inserted up their rectal vault, it is obvious what is happening and how the chain of events will unfold. If a mouthy broad with a mere bachelor’s degree in animal husbandry from a land-grant university can see this stuff...