Keyword: deflation

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  • A New Interest Rates Record Is Set... And It Is Foreboding

    08/17/2014 9:08:33 PM PDT · by blam · 20 replies
    Market Oeracle ^ | 8-17-2014 | Daily Wealth
    August 17, 2014 DailyWealth Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: A new record was set in Germany yesterday... The interest rate on a 10-year government bond in Germany fell below 1%. This number is shocking... Interest rates have never been this low in German history. What does it mean? Why would people agree to lend money to a government for 10 years with almost no return on that money? What is the message that we should take from this? Aren't things supposed to be getting back to "normal"? And doesn't "normal" mean something like this: By 2020, the Federal Reserve has short-term...
  • Negative Nominal Interest Rates: Highway to a Cashless, Statist Hell

    06/26/2014 10:26:02 PM PDT · by GraceG · 13 replies ^ | 06-26-2014 | Ann Barnhardt
    I warned about this in part two of my 2.5 hour Economics Video Presentation back in November of ARSH 2012, and, sure enough, it has now happened. Because, as I have been saying all along, for anyone who knows ANYTHING about ANYTHING having to do with economics, finance and/or banking, and who does not have their brain bucket completely and firmly inserted up their rectal vault, it is obvious what is happening and how the chain of events will unfold. If a mouthy broad with a mere bachelor’s degree in animal husbandry from a land-grant university can see this stuff...
  • Kyle Bass On China's "Contraction" And "The Fed's Worst Nightmare"

    05/27/2014 6:18:45 AM PDT · by blam · 5 replies
    Zero Hedge ^ | 5-27-2014 | Tyler Durden
    Tyler Durden 05/26/2014 For the last several years, nobody has been more outspokenly bearish on Japan than Kyle Bass. In a recent talk, Bass reiterated his doubts about Japan’s chances of averting a debt crisis. What’s more, he also said China’s economy will fall below expectations. Bass changed one aspect of his outlook on Japan. Instead of predicting a collapse of the Japanese bond market, he focused on a severe weakening of the yen – without predicting when that might happen. His predictions for China were equally distressing. He said that its banks will be saddled with non-performing loans and...
  • Weapon of Last Resort: ECB Considers Possible Deflation Measures (European Central Bank)

    04/23/2014 7:01:40 PM PDT · by Olog-hai · 1 replies
    Der Spiegel ^ | April 23, 2014 – 06:18 PM | Christian Reiermann and Anne Seith
    One of European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s most important duties is watching his mouth. One ill-considered utterance is enough to sow panic on the financial markets. But during a press conference earlier this month, Draghi allowed himself a telling slip. Speaking to gathered journalists at the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, Draghi twice almost uttered a word he has been at pains to avoid. “Defla…”, Draghi began, before stopping himself and continuing with the term “low inflation.”Yet despite Draghi’s efforts, the specter of deflation was omnipresent in Washington during the meetings. And it...
  • Deflating the Deflation Myth

    04/02/2014 3:55:29 PM PDT · by BfloGuy · 28 replies
    The Mises Institute ^ | 4/2/2014 | Chris Casey
    The fear of deflation serves as the theoretical justification of every inflationary action taken by the Federal Reserve and central banks around the world. It is why the Federal Reserve targets a price inflation rate of 2 percent, and not 0 percent. It is in large part why the Federal Reserve has more than quadrupled the money supply since August 2008. And it is, remarkably, a great myth, for there is nothing inherently dangerous or damaging about deflation. Deflation is feared not only by the followers of Milton Friedman (those from the so-called Monetarist or Chicago School of economics), but...
  • Harry Dent Video

    03/22/2014 11:05:18 AM PDT · by Arthur McGowan · 10 replies
    Harry Dent Video ^ | March 22, 2014 | Harry Dent
    Harry Dent predicts mild inflation, then massive deflation, then mild inflation.
  • Eurozone in Deflation; Monetarist Mouthpieces Will Scream

    03/01/2014 11:36:11 AM PST · by Kaslin · 12 replies ^ | March 1, 2014 | Mike Shedlock
    Forget all the talk about CPI or as they call it in Europe HIPC (harmonized index of consumer prices) floating just under 1%. The true measure of inflation is credit expansion. And for the second month, credit contracted in the Eurozone. Reuters reports Euro zone lending contraction compounds ECB headache. Lending to households and firms in the euro zone fell again in January and money supply growth remained subdued, adding to pressure on the European Central Bank to take action next week to support the economy. The ECB has cut interest rates to a record low, pumped extra liquidity into...
  • Deflation Theory Reality Check and the "Feel Good Effect"

    02/13/2014 10:11:48 AM PST · by Kaslin · 3 replies ^ | February 13, 2014 | Mike Shedlock
    If you repeat something completely inane enough times, do people, even economic writers, believe it?
  • A 'tsunami' of store closings expected to hit retail

    01/22/2014 1:59:17 PM PST · by EBH · 99 replies
    CNBC ^ | 1/22/2014 | Krystina Gustafson
    Get ready for the next era in retail—one that will be characterized by far fewer shops and smaller stores. On Tuesday, Sears said that it will shutter its flagship store in downtown Chicago in April. It's the latest of about 300 store closures in the U.S. that Sears has made since 2010. The news follows announcements earlier this month of multiple store closings from major department stores J.C. Penney and Macy's. Further signs of cuts in the industry came Wednesday, when Target said that it will eliminate 475 jobs worldwide, including some at its Minnesota headquarters, and not fill 700...
  • Coming 'oil glut' may push global economy into deflation

    01/18/2014 10:12:50 AM PST · by Kennard · 63 replies
    The Telegraph (UK) ^ | 8:52PM GMT 15 Jan 2014 | Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
    One piece of the jigsaw puzzle is missing to complete the deflation landscape across the West: a slide in oil prices. This is becoming more likely each month. Turmoil across the Middle East and parts of Africa has choked supply over the past two years, keeping Brent crude near $110 a barrel despite a broader commodity slump. Cotton and corn prices have halved, as has the UBS index of industrial metals. Such anomalies rarely last. "We estimate that crude oil is now the mostly richly priced commodity in the world," says Deutsche Bank in a fresh report. Michael Lewis, the...
  • Gold’s Real Problem: Deflation

    12/26/2013 6:31:56 AM PST · by SeekAndFind · 13 replies
    Barrons ^ | 12/26/2013 | Brendan Conway
    Forget the Federal Reserve — the real threat to gold’s price is deflation.That’s the argument over at Societe Generale this morning. No, not runaway, Depression-style deflation — but rather the threat of a stubborn resilience in the value of major currencies, which would be a clear negative for an “alternative currency” like gold. It would happen on account of investors’ unwillingness to behave like they usually do in economic normalcy. It would also happen as a result of stocks’ surging prices. At minimum, a lack of inflationary pressure of the sort investors are seeing lately, and may well see...
  • Fed could set off year-end fireworks

    12/17/2013 4:26:01 AM PST · by Lucky9teen · 16 replies
    Reuters ^ | Sun Dec 15, 2013 2:09pm EST | By Jonathan Spicer
    (Reuters) - The possibility that the Federal Reserve could finally start to trim its extraordinary stimulus for the economy could make this week an explosive one for financial markets. Though the odds still point to no major policy change when U.S. central bankers meet December 17-18, most of the recent domestic economic data suggest the beginning of the end of their massive bond-buying program is coming sooner than later. If it acts it may reflect as much a growth in confidence in the global economy, for whom the withdrawal of the flow of cheap dollars will be a shock, as...
  • Deceleration Nation: Declining Real Income, Homeownership, Labor Force Participation And Velocity

    12/02/2013 5:08:38 PM PST · by whitedog57 · 10 replies
    Confounded Interest ^ | 12/02/2013 | Anthony B. Sanders
    Several economic indicators for the US show deceleration. Yet the stock market and house prices continue to grow. Here is a chart of three economic indicators with clear downward momentum: civilian labor force participation (blue), the US homeownership rate (red) and real median household income (green). homessss And Goldman Sachs just downgraded Q4 2013 real GDP growth to 1.3%. These downward indicators compliment the declining M1 Money Multiplier and M2 Money Velocity. m1m2vel120213 Why? There are enormous excess reserves in the Fed system that aren’t leaking out to Main Street. And The Fed’s Balance sheet has exploded! (in terms of...
  • Bernanke Wants 2% Inflation in a Deflationary World (Long article)

    09/20/2013 9:55:10 AM PDT · by Kaslin · 9 replies ^ | September 20, 2013 | Mike Shedlock
    Steen Jakobsen, Chief economist at Saxo Bank in Denmark, pinged me today with his thoughts on "the morning after" and "price discovery". In my opinion these two paragraphs of the FOMC Statement are the key ones: The Committee sees the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished, on net, since last fall, but the tightening of financial conditions observed in recent months, if sustained, could slow the pace of improvement in the economy and labor market. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic...
  • The Bernanke Fed Is Playing With Deflationary Fire

    06/26/2013 8:42:19 AM PDT · by blam · 18 replies
    The Telegraph (UK) ^ | 6-26-2013 | Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
    The Bernanke Fed Is Playing With Deflationary Fire By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard June 24th, 2013 I hope the Fed knows what it is doing. It has chosen to tighten monetary policy even though core PCE inflation is actually lower right now than it was when the Fed previously thought it dangerous enough to launch further QE. America is one shock away from a slide into outright deflation, and the eurozone is half a shock away. Anyone who still thinks the Fed has not just tightened significantly – or that markets have overreacted – should read this lament by St Louis Fed...
  • Ben Bernanke Has Burst The 'Euphoria' Bubble

    06/26/2013 8:14:28 AM PDT · by blam · 6 replies
    Business Insider ^ | 6-26-2013 | Walter Kurtz, Sober Look
    Ben Bernanke Has Burst The 'Euphoria' Bubble Walter Kurtz, Sober LookJune 26,2013Credit Suisse Risk Appetite Index Sober Look ď‚ž The last time we discussed the Credit Suisse Global Risk Appetite Index, it was headed for "euphoria" (see this post from May 21). Around May 22 something changed, and it was all downhill from there. It was Bernanke's first hawkish statement. May 22; Bernanke: - WeÂ’re trying to make an assessment of whether or not we have seen real and sustainable progress in the labor market outlook. If we see continued improvement and we have confidence that that is going to...
  • A Whole New Group Of People Is Going To Start Worrying About The Gold Crash

    06/26/2013 7:56:28 AM PDT · by blam · 30 replies
    Business Insider ^ | 6-26-2013 | Joe Weisenthal
    A Whole New Group Of People Is Going To Start Worrying About The Gold Crash Jow WeisenthalJune 26, 2013, 5:26 AMBack in the day, a few years ago, when gold was soaring, anti-Fed types saw this as indication that Bernanke was blowing bubbles and creating hyperinflation. Of course, the price of gold is just the price of gold, but it didn't stop people from making bold statements about how gold was "voting" against Fed policy so to speak. Well now gold is totally crashing. At the start of April it was near $1600/oz. This morning it's not much above $1200/oz....
  • The Deflationist Error

    06/24/2013 9:47:17 AM PDT · by blam · 9 replies
    The Market Oracle ^ | 6-24-2013 | Alasdair Macleod
    The Deflationist Error Economics / Deflation June 24, 2013 - 05:52 PM GMT By: Alasdair Macleod Many people believe there is a significant risk that the Irving Fisher debt-deflation theory of great depressions is still an economic threat today. They overlook the fact that Fisher published his theory examining debt-deflation events under a gold standard, which does not apply today. Financial credit contractions therefore take a different appearance. The events he described arose as a consequence of the earlier expansion of bank credit in a fractional reserve system when the currency being used was convertible into gold. This was the...
  • We Are Witnessing A Rare Across-The-Board Selloff In The Global Markets

    06/20/2013 6:39:33 AM PDT · by blam · 34 replies
    Business Insider ^ | 6-20-2013 | Sam Ro
    We Are Witnessing A Rare Across-The-Board Selloff In The Global Markets Sam Ro June 20, 2013 Usually, when one asset class sells off, another rises. And when a lot of asset classes fall, the so-called "safe havens" will rise. These include things like U.S. Treasuries, gold, and a handful of other currencies like the Swiss Franc or Japanese Yen. However, everything is selling off right now. "Rare to see every futures market I follow down," tweeted bond trader Ed Bradford. Here's a look at a bunch of futures via FinViz.
  • It's A Mistake To Worry About Inflation

    06/08/2013 1:37:51 PM PDT · by blam · 62 replies
    It's A Mistake To Worry About Inflation Kenneth Rogoff, Project Syndicate June 8, 2013, 3:30 PM CAMBRIDGE – The world’s major central banks continue to express concern about inflationary spillover from their recession-fighting efforts. That is a mistake. Weighed against the political, social, and economic risks of continued slow growth after a once-in-a-century financial crisis, a sustained burst of moderate inflation is not something to worry about. On the contrary, in most regions, it should be embraced. Perhaps the case for moderate inflation (say, 4-6% annually) is not so compelling as it was at the outset of the crisis, when...
  • Deflation Smackdown: Bernanke’s Madcap Money Printing Fails To Boost Inflation

    06/03/2013 7:00:24 AM PDT · by blam · 10 replies
    TMO ^ | 6-3-2013 | Mike Whitney
    Deflation Smackdown: Bernanke’s Madcap Money Printing Fails To Boost Inflation Economics / Deflation Jun 03, 2013 - 02:25 PM GMT By: Mike Whitney “Under a fiat money system, a government… should always be able to generate increased nominal spending and inflation, even when the short-term nominal interest rate is at zero.” Ben S. Bernanke, “Deflation: Making Sure It Doesn’t Happen Here”, November, 2002" The US economy is in a liquidity trap which means that the demand for credit is weak even though the Fed is increasing the monetary base (via the creation of reserves at the banks) and interest rates...
  • Lowest Core PCE in History; "Flation" Perspective

    06/02/2013 3:55:03 AM PDT · by Kaslin · 20 replies ^ | June 2, 2013 | Mike Shedlock
    Doug Short at Advisor Perspectives has a pair of interesting reports on price inflation as measured by the CPE and PCI. Please consider PCE Price Index Update: Sorry Fed, The Disinflationary Trend Continues. The latest Headline PCE price index year-over-year (YoY) rate of 0.74% is a decrease from last month's adjusted 1.01%. The Core PCE index of 1.05% is decrease from the previous month's adjusted 1.17%. It is the lowest Core PCE ever recorded; the previous all-time low was 1.06% in March 1963, fifty years ago. The continuing disinflationary trend in core PCE (the blue line in the charts below)...
  • Will It Be Inflation Or Deflation? The Answer May Surprise You

    05/23/2013 9:13:00 AM PDT · by blam · 28 replies
    TEC ^ | 5-23-3013 | Michael Snyder
    Will It Be Inflation Or Deflation? The Answer May Surprise You By Michael Snyder May 22nd, 2013 Inflation Or DeflationIs the coming financial collapse going to be inflationary or deflationary? Are we headed for rampant inflation or crippling deflation? This is a subject that is hotly debated by economists all over the country. Some insist that the wild money printing that the Federal Reserve is doing combined with out of control government spending will eventually result in hyperinflation. Others point to all of the deflationary factors in our economy and argue that we will experience tremendous deflation when the bubble...
  • MORGAN STANLEY: And Now It's Time To Worry About Deflation Again

    05/19/2013 6:56:44 AM PDT · by blam · 21 replies
    TBI ^ | 5-19-2013 | Joe Weisenthal
    MORGAN STANLEY: And Now It's Time To Worry About Deflation Again Joe Weisenthal May 19, 2013, 7:04 AMWe were just talking about how the wrongest prediction of the past 5 years was the call for "inflation" or "hyperinflation" due to aggressive monetary easing. In his latest US Macro Dashboard note, Morgan Stanley economist Vincent Reinhart points out that the real story now is the return of deflation risk. With evidence building that the Q2 soft patch is upon us, worrisome chatter about deflation is taking center stage. Our outlook for some time has been that mounting fiscal drag would show...
  • The Case Against Economic Deflation

    05/07/2013 10:42:39 AM PDT · by blam · 3 replies
    The Market Oracle | 5-7-2013 | Alasdair Macleod
    The Case Against Economic Deflation Economics / DeflationMay 06, 2013 - 06:54 PM GMT By: Alasdair Macleod Regular readers will know I am in the inflation, possibly hyperinflation camp; but there are those that think the future is more likely to be deflationary. In the main this is the view of neoclassical economists, Keynesians and monetarists, who generally foresee a 1930s-style slump unless the economy is stimulated out of it. Rather than repeatedly go into the errors of their ways, we must accept that they are in charge. They have decided that prices must not fall, and they see moderate...
  • The Theory Of Deflation

    04/23/2013 10:15:23 AM PDT · by blam · 8 replies
    The Market Oracle ^ | 4-23-2013 | Andrew McKillop
    The Theory Of Deflation Economics / DeflationApr 23, 2013 - 06:13 AM GMT By: Andrew McKillop CLASSIC THEORIES This holds that deficiency of aggregate demand leads to over-production and unemployment, further depressing demand, and deflating the economy. By aggregate demand, this means personal and business as well as State consumption spending, and aggregate investment expenditure. Staying with classic theories, private investment is governed by the marginal efficiency of capital and the real rate of interest. Deflation will occur when investment declines, for three main reasons, which are low marginal efficiency of capital, low profitability of capital and high real rates...
  • United States Decaying From Within! Stocks, Gold and Dollar Outlook

    04/21/2013 8:57:21 PM PDT · by blam · 23 replies
    The Market Oracle ^ | 4-21-2013 | Robert M Williams
    United States Decaying From Within! Stocks, Gold and Dollar Outlook Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013April 21, 2013 - 06:58 PM GMT By: Robert M Williams No one seemed to notice or care that on June 28, 2012 the City of Stockton, California filed a petition for chapter 9 bankruptcy protection with the United States Bankruptcy Court, Eastern District of California, Sacramento, Case No. 2012-32118. On Monday, April 1, 2013, a federal judge ruled that Stockton was eligible for bankruptcy protection, over the objection of creditors who argued the city could come up with more money. U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Christopher Klein...
  • Is Bernanke’s Worst Nightmare Just Around The Corner?

    04/16/2013 3:20:08 PM PDT · by blam · 24 replies
    The Market Oracle ^ | 4-16-2013 | Graham Summers
    Is Bernanke’s Worst Nightmare Just Around The Corner? Economics / DeflationApr 16, 2013 - 09:17 PM GMT By: Graham Summers First off I want to say that all of us here at Phoenix Capital Research are sending our prayers to the victims of the Boston Terror Attacks. We sincerely hope none of you, our readers, or your loved ones were injured or harmed by these events. The markets today are snapping back from yesterday’s sharp drop. However, in the bigger picture we believe that Ben Bernanke must be terrified. The Fed and other Central banks of the world have done...
  • The day gold died--Commentary: Gold is history and history showed the run would end

    04/16/2013 9:37:05 AM PDT · by Ernest_at_the_Beach · 39 replies
    Marketwatch ^ | April 16, 2013, 7:01 a.m. EDT | By David Weidner, MarketWatch
    Monday’s crash in the gold market has been a long time coming. Buying opportunity? Only if you enjoy pain. And a few of you do. I know it. I could hear the howling from the mercantile exchanges. I don’t want to write I told you so, but I did. Many of us warned against the modern gold rush. But we weren’t looking at a crystal ball, it was history talking.
  • “Watch The Metals, When They Dip. It Will Be A Good Indication That Things Are About To Happen.”

    04/15/2013 10:07:30 AM PDT · by blam · 61 replies
    SHTF Plan ^ | 4-15-2013 | Mac Slavo
    “Watch The Metals, When They Dip. It Will Be A Good Indication That Things Are About To Happen.” Mac Slavo April 15th, 2013 As of this print the price of gold is reaching fresh two year lows, down nearly 25% from its all time high just six months ago. Though uninformed onlookers and financial pundits may see this as the popping of the proverbial gold bubble, the velocity and scale of the take-down in precious metals suggests that there is a massive assault in the works. According to former Assistant Treasury Secretary Paul Craig Roberts, last Friday’s price drop was...
  • Draghi/Merkel as Goldfinger: Commodities (Gold, Silver, Oil) Plunge, Fear or DEFLATION?

    04/15/2013 7:01:38 AM PDT · by whitedog57 · 3 replies
    Confounded Interest ^ | 04/15/2013 | Anthony B. Sanders
    Gold, silver and other commodities are plunging this morning. Could it simply be that the bloom if off the commodity rose? Or is there a scent of panic about sovereign expropriations of gold and hard assets? On April 12th, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the profits of any gold sales by the Cypriot central bank must be used to cover losses it may sustain from emergency loans to Cypriot commercial banks. How there are rumblings of wealth taxes and seizures rumbling around the Eurozone. Wealthy households would face new taxes on property and other assets under German plans...
  • Gold In The Crosshairs (Peter Schiff)

    04/15/2013 9:35:07 AM PDT · by blam · 12 replies
    Euro Pacific Capital ^ | 4-15-2013 | Peter Schiff
    Gold In The Crosshairs Peter SchiffMonday, April 15, 2013 In the opening years of the last decade, most mainstream investors sat on the sidelines while "tin hat" goldbugs rode the bull market from below $300 to just over $1,000 per ounce. But following the 2008 financial crisis, when gold held up better than stocks during the decline and made new record highs long before the Dow Jones fully recovered, Wall Street finally sat up and took notice. The new devotees helped to push gold to nearly $1,900 by September of 2011. For the next year and a half it held...
  • Why you should be stoked about the sinking price of gold

    04/12/2013 8:34:12 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 24 replies
    The Week ^ | 04/12/2013 | By Carmel Lobello
    "Things are looking up for the economy and, as a result, down for gold," says Nathaniel Popper at The New York Times. The value of our safe and shiny investment has slipped 17 percent since 2011, after 12 straight years of growth. "It is a remarkable turnabout for an investment that many have long regarded as one of the safest of all," Popper says. When investors are worried about the value of U.S. currency, the safety of securities investments, and the overall health of the U.S. economy, they often trade in their cash for gold. So in the frightening wake of...
  • Japan’s Monetary “Shock And Awe” Loses Fizz After One Day

    04/07/2013 12:16:55 PM PDT · by whitedog57 · 3 replies
    Confounded Interest ^ | 04/07/2013 | Anthony B. Sanders
    The Bank of Japan announced their “Shock and Awe” monetary strategy on April 4th to inject $1.4 trillion into their economy in less than two years. (Reuters) – The Bank of Japan unleashed the world’s most intense burst of monetary stimulus on Thursday, promising to inject about $1.4 trillion into the economy in less than two years, a radical gamble that sent the yen reeling and bond yields to record lows. That was on April 4th. But on closing on Friday April 5th, the 10 year Japanese sovereign yield regained most of its decline. If we look at the change...
  • Entrenched Deflation Threatens Economic Recovery

    03/26/2013 6:50:09 PM PDT · by blam · 16 replies
    TMO ^ | 3-26-2013 | Andrew McKillop
    Entrenched Deflation Threatens Economic Recovery Economics / DeflationMarch 26, 2013 - 10:30 AM GMT By: Andrew McKillop TWO VIEWS ONLY There are basically only two possible views. One is that entrenched deflation happens when there is persistent falling demand for credit and declining rates of money ciculation in the economy, driving down prices for goods, services and credit. This is confronted and made worse by increasing physical supply (and supply capacity) of goods and services. Due to generalized over-borrowing in the recent "economic cycle", QE Everywhere cannot fill the gap caused by secular deleveraging. All developed economies are "pushing on...
  • Deflation Coming Soon

    03/11/2013 8:22:24 AM PDT · by blam · 29 replies
    TMO ^ | 3-11-2013 | Andrew McKillop
    Deflation Coming Soon Economics / DeflationMarch 11, 2013 - 01:28 PM GMT By: Andrew McKillop HOW FAR CAN THE ECONOMY DEFLATE? One predictable whine comes from longtime George Soros partner Jim Rogers, who says we are at a "peculiar time in world history". He decries the growing uncertainty, what he calls the recklessness, of "economic recovery action" by global central bankers, and the related action by government policy makers, as world finance markets enter "unchartered waters". These waters have a growing population of sharks, including distressed asset sharks. Their food base is abundant. Distressed assets, penny-on-the-dollar deals are abundant. They...
  • The Fed Is Beginning To Remove The Punchbowl… Are You Ready For What’s Coming?

    02/10/2013 10:26:58 AM PST · by blam · 28 replies
    TMO ^ | 2-10-2013 | Graham Summers
    <p>The Fed Is Beginning To Remove The Punchbowl… Are You Ready For What’s Coming?</p> <p>Consider its recent FOMC minutes released on January 3 2013.</p> <p>With regard to the possible costs and risks of purchases, a number of participants expressed the concern that additional purchases could complicate the Committee’s efforts to eventually withdraw monetary policy accommodation, for example, by potentially causing inflation expectations to rise or by impairing the future implementation of monetary policy.</p>
  • In 1929, Deflation Started In Europe Before Overtaking The U.S.

    11/30/2012 3:50:10 PM PST · by blam · 23 replies
    EWI ^ | 11-30-2012 | EWI
    In 1929, Deflation Started In Europe Before Overtaking The U.S. Economics / DeflationNov 30, 2012 - 05:23 AM By: EWI What Happens in Europe Will Not Stay in Europe More than 1,500 years after the fact, scholars still debate the causes of the Roman Empire's fall. What historians do agree on is that the crumbling empire's final days were marked by economic contraction, a struggle to fund Rome's routine affairs and excessive debt. Sound familiar? Mark Twain said, "History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme." That quote seems to apply when economically comparing the Roman Empire and the United...
  • Eurozone nears Japan-style trap as money and credit contract again

    10/25/2012 9:58:52 PM PDT · by bruinbirdman · 1 replies
    The Telegraph ^ | 10/25/2012 | Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
    All key measures of the eurozone money supply contracted in September and private credit fell at an accelerating pace, dashing hopes of a quick recovery from recession. Data from the European Central Bank show that the tentative rebound in the money supply over the summer may have stalled again in September. The broad M3 gauge -- watched by experts as an early warning signal for the economy a year or so ahead -- shrank by €30bn and is now down by €143bn since April. This is highly unusual. The narrow M1 gauge watched for signals of activity six months head...
  • Deflation's Here, and the Downward Spiral Has Started

    09/19/2012 2:45:49 AM PDT · by OwenKellogg · 57 replies
    American Thinker ^ | September 18, 2012 | Col. Frank Ryan, CPA, USMCR (Ret.)
    Denmark, Germany, Switzerland, and Finland have been issuing short term government notes at negative interest rates since mid-year 2012! This dangerous precedent has happened before. Most recently, Japan experienced negative interest rates in the 1990s. The effects of the economic quandary in Japan and the efforts to restore growth were so misguided that the Japanese are still attempting a recovery. In almost twenty years, Japan has yet to make a full economic recovery. The United States and the European Union are next and are headed into the same disaster as Japan unless decisive action is taken now. ... Deflation is...
  • Understanding Deflation, Pro Football Defense, Downside Pressure On Prices Has Only Begun

    09/16/2012 11:31:19 AM PDT · by blam · 11 replies
    TMO ^ | 9-16-2012 | EWI
    Understanding Deflation, Pro Football Defense, Downside Pressure On Prices Has Only Begun Economics / DeflationSep 16, 2012 - 07:43 AM By: EWI You've heard (and probably used) the phrase, "I'd rather watch the game on television." It's what a sports fan says if he doesn't want to face traffic jams, inadequate parking, overpriced tickets, noisy crowds, and possibly a poor view of the game. These days, however, something else is keeping professional football fans at home: deflation. Since the economic slowdown that started in 2007, fewer people are willing to fork over money to attend games. In turn, NFL teams...
  • Marc Faber: "Fed QE3 Will Destroy The World" (and the middle class)

    09/15/2012 7:20:35 AM PDT · by dennisw · 28 replies
    zerohedge ^ | 09/14/2012 | Tyler Durden
      Free Republic moderators---  please do not excerpt.--Zero hedge does not mind        "Everything will collapse" is the consequence Gloom, Boom, & Doom's Marc Faber sees from the Fed's latest 'stimulus' (and the fallacy and misconception of how money-printing can help employment). In a wondrously clarifying interview on Bloomberg TV this morning, Faber explained why he was 'happy', since "the asset values of his holdings will go up" but as a responsible citizen he is worried because "the monetary policies of the US will destroy the world." It truly is class warfare under a veil of 'its good for you' as...
  • Marc Faber: If I Were Bernanke, I Would Resign

    09/14/2012 10:08:45 AM PDT · by Fred · 20 replies
    CNBC ^ | 91412 | Shai Ahmed
    Central bankers are “counterfeit money printers” and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke should resign for messing up the U.S. economy so badly, Marc Faber, author of the Gloom, Doom and Boom, told CNBC on Friday. He said Bernanke was one of the main proponents of an ultra-expansionist economic monetary policy that was to blame for the latest financial crisis. “If I had messed up as badly as Bernanke I would for sure resign. The mandate of the Fed to boost asset prices and thereby create wealth is ludicrous — it doesn’t work that way. It’s a temporary boost followed by...
  • The Printing Press Is Running Hot, But Where Is Inflation And How Will It Affect Gold?

    09/06/2012 11:13:39 AM PDT · by blam · 38 replies
    TMO ^ | 9-6-2012 | GoldSilverWorlds
    The Printing Press Is Running Hot, But Where Is Inflation And How Will It Affect Gold? Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012Sep 06, 2012 - 02:48 AM By: GoldSilverWorlds The key to understanding inflation lies in the implications of an increasing money supply. Here at Global Gold, we rely on the “True Money Supply” which is provided by the Mises Institute. The “True Money Supply” was originated by Murray Rothbard and represents the amount of money in the US economy that is available for immediate use in exchange. On the chart below you see that the True Money Supply has...
  • The Quadrillion Dollar Deflationary Debt Raft

    09/05/2012 11:07:56 AM PDT · by blam · 3 replies
    TMO ^ | 9-5-2012 | Raul I Meijer
    The Quadrillion Dollar Deflationary Debt Raft Interest-Rates / US DebtSep 05, 2012 - 02:03 AM By: Raul I Meijer Our Down Under roving reporter Skip came up with a few interesting questions when watching an interview that Russia Today recently ran with economist Richard Duncan. Where doth debt take us going forward, and, for that matter, where has it - really - taken us so far? If and when Japan implodes, does that force the US out of the possibility of moving - or already being - into the Japanese deflationary scenario and into something more sinister? Will it be...
  • The Day Of Economic Reckoning Is Near

    08/26/2012 7:45:37 AM PDT · by blam · 11 replies
    TMO ^ | 8-26-2012 | Doug Casy- TGR
    The Day Of Economic Reckoning Is Near Economics / Great Depression II Aug 25, 2012 - 01:23 PM By: The Gold Report It is a deal with the devil: Governments churn out more and more cash for the promise of continued prosperity. But the day of reckoning is near, according to Doug Casey, chairman of Casey Research and an expert on crisis investing. As the epic battle between inflation and deflation continues on, Casey discusses his predictions for the new world market in this exclusive interview with The Gold Report. The Gold Report: There will be a Casey Research Summit...
  • Fighting this Depression with the Last Depression's Tactics is a Recipe for Disaster

    07/07/2012 4:24:57 AM PDT · by OwenKellogg · 18 replies
    American Thinker ^ | July 6, 2012 | Col. Frank Ryan, CPA, USMCR (Ret.)
    In Chairman Bernanake's doctoral thesis, he "focused on the role of monetary policy in affecting economic activity, and on the historical analysis of the causes of the Great Depression." His thesis and resulting understanding of the negative impact that uncertainty has on business cycles should provide insight on the actions needed by government to resolve our current economic difficulties. In short, Dr. Bernanake understood that "[i]t is shown that increased uncertainty provides an incentive to defer such investments in order to wait for new information" (page 2 of the dissertation). In the same paper, he wrote, "Uncertainty is seen to...
  • Silver, Gold And The Coming Deflation (The Great Tribulation)

    07/05/2012 3:40:07 PM PDT · by blam · 30 replies
    TMO ^ | 7-5-2012 | Hubert Moolman
    Silver, Gold And The Coming Deflation Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012 Jul 05, 2012 - 02:03 PM By: Hubert Moolman Historically gold has made its significant gains, relative to other assets (as well as nominally), not during inflation, but during deflation (Note: I am using the terms inflation and deflation very loosely in this case). These significant gold rallies historically occur when value flees instruments such as stocks and certain commodities. Since the 1920s there have been three major gold rallies (1930s, 1970s and the current rally). All three major gold rallies came after a significant top in the...
  • A Sure-Fire Case for Deflation

    06/27/2012 5:20:26 PM PDT · by Kaslin · 24 replies ^ | June 27, 2012 | Mike Shedlock
    Zero Hedge, citing a Federal Reserve Bank of New York report on Shadow Banking, makes (without even realizing it) a sure-fire case for deflation. I encourage you to visit the link shown above, but also take a look at On The Verge Of A Historic Inversion In Shadow Banking by Zero Hedge. Here is the introduction by ZH. While everyone's attention was focused on details surrounding the household sector in the recently released Q1 Flow of Funds report (ours included), something much more important happened in the US economy from a flow perspective, something which, in fact, has not happened...
  • The Black Hole Of Deflation

    06/26/2012 4:24:14 PM PDT · by blam · 69 replies
    TMO ^ | 6-26-2012 | Julian DW Phillips
    The Black Hole Of Deflation Economics / Deflation Jun 26, 2012 - 11:42 AM By: Julian DW Phillips The Global Picture and Where We Are Now For the last few years we've watched as the Credit Crunch morphed into the Sovereign Debt crisis in Europe, which may re-cross the Atlantic to hit the U.S. Treasury market. During that time, we have watched a series of patch-up jobs on the crisis that have only succeeded in prolonging the crisis without any real structural remedies. We've also watched how central bankers have seen the 'buck' passed to them, when their role is...