Posted on 10/20/2015 10:30:07 AM PDT by GonzoII
Donald Trump continued to build on his lead in New Hampshire in a new poll released Tuesday.
According to a new Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce poll, Trump resides solidly in the top slot, with 28 percent of respondents supporting his candidacy, up 10 points since the first debate August.
Ben Carson continued his surge into second place with 16 percent support, which nearly equals his high in the Granite State. Carly Fiorina is the only other candidate in the field who breaks into double digits with 10 percent.
Following up the trio of outsiders is former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush with 9 percent and Sen. Marco Rubio and Ohio Gov. John Kasich with 6 percent each.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...
Not buying the Carson rise. Just not buying it
NH was the place where Kasich had some traction. THANK GOD that’s over.
“Ben Carson continued his surge into second place with 16 percent support, which nearly equals his high in the Granite State.”
Which nearly equals his high = He’s up, He’s Down, He’s up = he is holding his own.
>>Not buying the Carson rise. Just not buying it<<
He has been consistently on his message and has quietly refused to back down nor apologize for what he believes.
For people who like Trump’s straight talk but are irritated by his caustic nature can find solace in Carson’s more even-tempered approach.
I think there is a “there” there for Carson.
Just not sure who big a there.
Carson surged upwards from what number?
There is a there there for Carson as long as Trump keeps reinforcing his negatives by playing the loose cannon.
If Trump gets back on message and sticks to it, he will win.
Notice how Carson is always surging but they fail to show Trump continues to not only lead but rise every week. It never ends.
http://www.bostonherald.com/news_opinion/local_coverage/herald_bulldog/2015/10/donald_trump_tops_franklin_pierceherald_poll_at
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Trump went from 18% to 28%.
Carson went from 4% to 16%.
SURGING??????????? REALLY????????????????
ROFLMAO.....
Every conservative forum I go to, Carson is a good guy but I don’t see anybody saying they are interested in voting for him.
Check out the links to articles here on FR read the comments, it’s either Trump or Cruz people want to vote for, even when the article is about Carson or any other candidate the comments quickly evolve and come down to Cruz or Trump.
I don’t get these Polls at all.
What I find perplexing is the targeting of Carson by some, when honestly he's doing no harm to Trump (again, different voter types with any convergence only due to happen in the future), is doing a lot of harm to the likes of Jeb (think about it ...Trump and Carson combined are almost half of some poll samples ....which absolutely takes away the credibility from the main GOPe candidates), and in terms of harm to one of 'ours' the only harm is to Ted Cruz (and any 'harm' Carson has brought to Cruz is nothing compared to the 'harm' Trump has wrought on Cruz).
Dr. Carson is essentially a nice man who may not have the fire of Trump, but he supports roughly similar points, just in a far quieter calmer manner. That is what is keeping him in second place ...the fact that he is a candidate for those who like Trump's views but would prefer someone gentler, and that is a lot of evangelicals.
A lot.
Finally, Carson has been consistently in second place for quite some time now. Across multiple polls. Now, it is possible that there's a 'massive conspiracy' across multiple pollsters to bring Carson on top, but what's more likely is that he is a true number 2, at least for now, that he has a lot of support from Evangelicals, as well as from those who like what Trump is saying but may not necessarily like Trump (and don't want to support the likes of Cruz, Rubio, Bush because of their performance in the polls).
The race still belongs to Trump, and I don't see why on every thread there is inevitably a 'Carson numbers are BS' posts. They really are not ...he may have X% rather than Y%, but it still remains he is number 2 after Trump, and for reasons that are quite clear. Evangelicals and the 'we like Trump's message but not Trump' voters.
The thing that is important is that the two men combined command a huge section of the Republican/Conservative electorate, and that is something to be continuously propagated since if it continues it will force GOPe (eg Bush) and GOPesque (eg Fiorina) candidates to drop out due to lack of oxygen, and once Trump and Carson are left then people can decide amongst them. However, what is starting to look like a 'get Carson out' thrust only helps the GOPe and harms Trump, since Carson getting hamstrung at this point would only release some oxygen to Bush and Rubio (and a much smaller amount to Cruz, who seems to be struggling).
Think about the things that normally precipitate a poll surge. Did Carson:
- Issue a policy statement that met with positive media (even alternative media) coverage?
- Take a stand on a controversial issue that was widely covered?
- Make a speech which was picked up by many media outlets?
- Have an outstanding, recent debate performance?
I haven’t seen anything from him at all on the top 3 (policies, issues, speeches). The last debate was over a month ago (Sep 16th) so the “surge” he would have gotten from that has long since passed. I think the numbers are fake. There’s no “there” there to back up Carson’s surge
Ben Carson continued his surge into second place with 16 percent support, which nearly equals his high in the Granite State.
Wait, what? Carson is "surging," even though his 16% "nearly equals his high in the Granite State"? Sounds like Carson is pretty much just maintaining his position.
“...and has quietly refused to back down...”
I recognize that by “quietly” you’re referring to his speaking style but that also describes his media coverage. As in “it’s quiet as there is very little of it”. Media coverage and debate performances are the two essentials to poll number jumps. It doesn’t matter how good your policies are, the tough stands you take on issues etc..if no one knows about them and right now, the coverage of Carson is...quiet.
I like the guy and would happily pull the lever for him over anyone on the Dem side but I’m not buying this “surge”. He simply isn’t reaching enough people with his message to justify these poll numbers.
Carson is like Trump in this regard....people are not used to this type of candidate...Trump’s message is delivered more bluntly, Carson’s message is similar in many ways but delivered more deliberately and not as blunt.
Many people like Carson, but like me, we wonder if what we are seeing is the true Carson. All the other candidates including Trump we feel have a pretty good read on the true candidate. That is why Fiorina, Kasich have been going down in the polls.
But with Carson it’s like hmmmmmmmm “I like his backbone, most of his position’s, his life story and his character,” but I’m just not sold. Beside that I’m with Trump as long as he is a candidate, but I do admire how Carson has grown as a candidate and doesn’t seemed to have changed his positions much or his temperament/character.
I get that - I like Carson - but his message is simply not getting the airtime (MSM, alternative media or social media) it would need to result in these poll bounces. That’s the only point I’m making here. He hasn’t done / said anything that warrants poll bounces.
In fact, except for the muslims as President thing, his coverage is basically limited to reports of his climb in the polls.
I think you are correct and I also think Fox and maybe others are manipulating the polls by polling more evangelicals to pull Carson's numbers up.
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