Posted on 08/24/2015 11:42:32 AM PDT by Slings and Arrows
The RNC is the Republican National Committee – or, put another way, the entire construct of the professional Republican Establishment and those who derive benefit/affiliation from the entity therein, the business end. (National, State and regional political entities; polling consultants, campaign consultants, committee employees, etc). The RNC gets the politician elected to Washington DC.
The GOP, or GOP(e), is the financial class or group of financiers who pay the RNC and derive benefit from the policy creation within Washington DC. Wall Street banks and banking interests, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, K-Street Lobbyists, etc. are all part of the machine that tells the politicians what to do.
In essence, the RNC is the Board of Directors, the GOP are the company officers, and the politicians are the employees. John Boehner and Mitch McConnell are the managers. Put them all together and you have the RNC/GOPe.
In this example “We The People”, or “the electorate”, are the customers, forced to buy -through the monopoly- their product offerings, whatever they present, every 2 to 4 years.
Got it? Good. Now here we go:
The original question in 2013/2014 by the RNC/GOPe:
Everything that followed is simply execution of a strategic plan that stemmed from that very specific goal. We are not going to cover it again – YOU CAN READ HERE. The marketing strategy is too complex to outline in a single digestible article.
However, first the RNC/GOPe needed to construct the financing of the plan; AND they need to do so without too much attention. Hence, they did this two ways:
#1 In 2014 they changed the traditional campaign finance rules (hid them in the CRomnibus bill when no-one was paying attention) allowing them to take in more money. A lot more money. (link)
#2 Next, they created Super-PACs to allow them to fund behavior outside of the specific interests of the candidates the Super-PACs were assigned to. The behavior they need is loyalty to the GOPe plan, not the candidate. (link)
Next, the RNC/GOPe changed the rules of the 2016 primary election to benefit Jeb Bush. (Keeping in mind they already had polling data which suggested the electorate did not want to purchase Jeb Bush). They changed dates and delegate distributions to insure their guy could win with around 1/5th (20%) support.
It really is a masterful and entirely ingenious plan. And it was constructed so well it took months, even years, to figure out how -and why- each of the pieces fit their puzzle.
Lastly, the RNC/GOPe recruited back into the machine a crew of previously retired, but exceptionally loyal employees of the organization, to execute the strategy. Prestige and financial reward would be the compensation. After all, what’s a few billion among friends when trillions are at stake.
With the money, the rules, and the tools in hand – the rest became execution of the plan.
The specific road map they created had primary calendar dates and delegate distributions as the essential measure. Hence, internal polls were conducted in the key states that would be needed for the plan.
The internal polls had to measure Jeb Bush against the anticipated opponent. These measurements needed to be done on an almost district-by-district level in order to gauge the delegate distributions.
Trying to stay out of the wonky discussion, suffice to say that traditionally within each state each congressional district holds 3 primary delegates which can be won by a candidate or candidates. Subsequently if you are modeling a race you are polling the various options within each district to see who the district favors with your presented match-ups. The district polls are then rolled up, and create the state poll data.
Let’s take Florida as an example. This example is chosen because Florida is essentially the fulcrum point under pinning the road map. Florida is the tipping point for Bush, just like it was for Romney in ’12.
If Florida was a contest between Jeb Bush and Scott Walker a polled outcome might be:
Bush 45% – Walker 55%
Or, if Florida was a contest between Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz the outcome might be:
Bush 40% – Cruz 60%
[ It’s important to remember here that we are talking about PRIMARY VOTERS and PRIMARY ELECTIONS. Only about 1/4 of all Republicans will vote in a primary, and the number of GOPe (employees) within the population who show up to a primary represents a higher percentage than exist in the Republican general election. ]
So, in this example, Florida, if you want Bush to win you need to change the options.
If you test out Bush, Walker and Cruz. The outcome might be:
Bush 30% – Cruz 35% – Walker 35%
Your guy is still losing but the race is closer. So you put another factor into the equation:
Bush 25% – Rand Paul 10% – Cruz 35% – Walker 30%
Your guy still losing. So you put another factor into the polled equation:
Bush 25% – Rand Paul 10% – Cruz 25% – Walker 20% – Marco Rubio 20%
OK, better. Now your guy is tied. Marco Rubio is the guy who has “split” the opponent to provide you the benefit to run a possible Florida primary race, and achieve victory at 25%. So we call Marco Rubio “the splitter“.
The key now becomes growing your own popularity, and enhancing anyone who would take away from the biggest challenger within your opponent group. Again, remember this is a “Republican Primary” weighted, by the influence of the party apparatus, to support the “party guy” (in this case Jeb).
With the race successfully split, now you need to “fracture” the biggest challenger within the group:
Bush 25% – Paul 8% – Cruz 22% – Walker 19% – Rubio 20% – Rick Perry 6%
BINGO ! Bush wins.
Notice Bush didn’t win by gaining support, he won by fracturing his opponents support. This is the GOPe “splitter” strategy within the 2016 Road Map.
Also notice, the plan is not necessarily dependent on a “Rick Perry” to finish. There’s always: Fiorina (for women), Huckabee/Santorum (for evangelicals), or Christie, Carson etc.
THEN – If you changed the rules to make Florida a “Winner Take All” race (which the RNC/GOPe did in the road map/rule phase) well, your guy BUSH just won ALL 99 Delegates with only 25% of the electorate supporting him.
In Florida Marco Rubio plays the key role of the “splitter” to get Bush the victory.
Other primary states before Florida can be looked at the same way.
Now you understand why consummate RNC insiders: John Kasich (Ohio), Jim Gilmore (VA), George Pataki (NY), Lindsey Graham (SC), Rick Perry (TX), are all in the race.
Specific primary states, specific primary delegates, specific dates and specific “splitters” needed within those states on those dates.
Now, some people just have a really hard time believing the RNC/GOPe apparatus would actually scheme and plan to do this. Initially, back in the summer/fall of 2014, we did too. Hence we set up “trip wires”, or events which would prove if we were right or wrong.
Every one of those “trip wires” was triggered in the exact construct, at the exact time anticipated.
For those who still refuse to believe – Fortunately, public polling is now available which would, acting like a trip wire, disprove the plan if it wasn’t triggering exactly as it would need to in order to be successful.
We have been following the Key State Polling Data to see if the GOPe plan would succeed. Especially FLORIDA, TEXAS and OHIO. (Texas Poll) (Florida Poll) (Ohio Poll)
AND IT DOES (Example OHIO):
In every single poll, in every single key primary state where the RNC/GOPe changed the party rules, changed the primary calender and changed proportional or WTA assignments, if it were not for Donald Trump, you would see the GOPe road map achieving exactly the outcomes it needs to be successful.
Trump Florida Polling
Donald Trump has FUBAR’d their entire plan. This is why there is such vitriol targeted toward Donald Trump.
Unfortunately, this also means if they take out Donald Trump the GOPe road map gets back on course.
Worse yet, as we have just pointed out, highlighted and shown, if the GOPe plan gets back on course, voting for Walker, Cruz or (__fill_in_the_blank__) won’t make a bit of difference…..
…. because the entire road map was designed to deliver this:
Both are sides of the same Wall Street Big Gov coin. RNC or DNC same/same.
BUT THE PROBLEM GETS BIGGER – The Trump Conundrum is not only screwing up the RNC/GOPe plan, he is forcing the Wall Street, K-Street money people to rethink EVERYTHING. If they can’t control the RNC side of the equation (coin), they are only left with control over the DNC side of the equation (coin).
Within that consideration they simply cannot run the risk of having vulnerable Hillary Clinton face Donald Trump (who they don’t control).
Wall Street will force the DNC/DEMe team to get a better quality of candidate than Hillary to face Donald Trump if Wall Street is to feel more comfortable amid the inherent risk.
RESOURCE / REFERENCE MATERIAL:
Ping!
Over the years – when, to steal a line from Billy Joel, I wore a younger man’s clothes – I was involved with several pretty solid conservative candidates for Congress. One was a Democrat (Lawrence Patton McDonald) – because that was the only way he could win in that district. Those old-timers who know Larry’s record will tell you that he was a solid an anti-communist America Firster and more Republican than the Pubbies in nearby districts at the time. (His mother’s cousin was General George Patton from whom he got the middle name – and his incredible resolve and love of this country.) How ironic that he, like General Patton, was also assassinated by the communists they both despised. It was my honor to introduce Larry at his last public speech in the district before that ill-fated KAL007 flight!
Those other candidates ran as Republicans and each had to pass my rigid litmus test or I went looking for someone who did. For that reason, I hooked up with what the TRADITIONAL country club Pubbie establishment types believed were too radical for their refined tastes. I served as treasurer for several and in other capacities for more.
As those campaigns began to unfold and it became clear to the country clubbers that these guys 1) had a shot and 2) were pretty independent thinkers who would be hard to keep on the reservation once they got sworn in, the local Pubbies communicated that information to the Republican National HQ types who rather quickly sent in campaign “professionals” ostensibly to lock up the impending victory.
Instead, in nearly every case to which I was privy, these “professionals” proceeded to TORPEDO our guy’s campaign in subtle but effective ways.
From that experience I can tell you that the Pubbies at the HQ in D.C. would rather have a Democrat win a given district than have a pubbie up there who would embarrass them by refusing to follow the party line.
If YOU become involved in campaigns for solidly conservative, America and Constitution loving, hard-nosed, independent thinking candidates in 2014 and beyond – and I pray many of you do — please DO NOT trust any of those folks from GOP HQ in Washington. If they want to send you no-strings cash for your campaign, take it. If, however, they “suggest” sending in one of their “professionals,” tell them to fuggetaboutit.
They ARE WHO GOT US INTO THIS MESS AND THEY ARE NOT YOUR FRIENDS!!!!
“The common and continual mischief of the spirit of Party is
sufficient to make it the interest and duty of a wise people to
discourage and restrain it.” G. Washington
(BTW, My genealogical research informs me that my 5th great-grandfather, one John Carpenter, was one of George Washington’s Virginia neighbors and fought with GW in the French and Indian War and the Revolution. Prior to that, John traveled with GW during his survey of the Northwest Territories.)
Dick Bachert
2010
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One thing I know without doing more than a quick skim of this (it is rather interesting), is that I firmly believe the GOPe and their big donors want a Bush / Clinton match up.
If we hold our noses and vote for Jeb (no effin way for me) they win, if we don’t (and we won’t this time around) they get Hillary, the end result for Wall Street and the big money is the same. A Republican statist whore is the same as a Democrat statist whore.
I certainly think rules have been manipulated to help the GOPe win the primary contests.
The most striking one is Texas where in 1976 when it was winner take all for delegates and Ronald Reagan came out the winner over Gerald Ford.
In 2012 Texas was a made a strictly proportional state for delegate allocation with a fraction of a percent giving a candidate a delegate.
This year they dropped in the 50/20 option with one candidate getting all if over 50 percent or one candidate getting all over 20, if two or three get over 20 there is proportionality.
This appears to be a set up to enable Rick Perry who’s obviously a GOPe front man (pouncing on Trump when Trump became a threat) along with Jeb to end up splitting delegates with Ted Cruz in TX.
In the Florida example listed above, Rubio doesn’t draw any vote from John Ellis Bush. Rubio will largely draw votes from the same pool that Bush does.
There are various reasons why people run for President, and in 1980 when Reagan was certainly viewed to be competitive, only one other candidate (Phil Crane) ran as a true conservative. (He basically said that Reagan was too old)
The other candidates, George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole, Howard Baker, John Connolly and John B. Anderson ran more or less to Reagan’s left, and all either saw a path to the nomination. Anderson ran Third Party after, claiming Reagan was too conservative to be “electable”, making him a true believer RINO.
Now, the GOPe can certainly anticipate and influence who does what once they are in, but positing that Walker and Huckabee and Santorum and Perry are all getting in because they are told to doesn’t pass the Occam’s razor test with me. Ego and future opportunities play a big part.
More good work at the Treehouse.
Well, it’s what they do every election, and the gimmick in the Cromnibus was well noticed for it’s impact.
“Unfortunately, this also means if they take out Donald Trump the GOPe road map gets back on course.”
Not if he stays in long enough for some conservative ‘splitters’ to fold. And for conservative ideas to gain a foothold despite the media. And for disgust with the GOPe to build.
Trump’s doing a lot for conservatives at this point.
Been saying this for a while. Too many conservative choices divide the vote and favor the liberal. This is especially true if some of the “conservatives” are phonies and throw their support (and delegates) to the liberal when they bow out.
And I am surprised at all to find out that this might be a strategy of the GOP-E.
Here is what Ted Cruz has to say on GOPe leadership corruption and sellout......
That Tuesday lunch began with our leadership saying, “We’re asking every Republican senator here, to affirmatively consent to lower the threshold for Harry Reid to take up the debt ceiling, from 60 votes to 50 votes. And we were told, everyone of you should agree for two reasons.
Number one, if we do this, it will happen, and hallelujah, hallelujah, that’s what we want. We want trillions more in debt with no spending reforms, because we’re scared of this issue. We don’t want to have a political fight on this.
But number two, if we do this, the Democrats will have the votes to do it on their own, which means all of us Republicans can vote no. And we can go home and tell our constituents, we opposed the thing we just consented to allow happen.
Now, I was sitting there — to be honest, I hadn’t gone to lunch intending to pick a fight, but as I listened to that, I was astonished and I raised my hand, and I said, “There’s no universe in which I can consent to doing that. I spent two years campaigning across Texas, telling Texas, if you elect me, I’ll fight with every breath in my body to stop the out of control spending and debt that are bankrupting our kids and grandkids.”
If were to do that, I think it would be both dishonest and unfaithful to the men and women who elected me.
I’ve been following this continuing thread from the “treehouse” and though I’m far from a political strategist, what Sundance is pointing out here seems pretty compelling to me.
The thing I don’t understand is, it was only 8 years ago that the “BUSH” name was considered radioactive and it seemed to be the consensus opinion that no one from that family could ever get elected to the presidency again.
Now, here we are and “they” are trying to give us the 3rd Bush presidency (or attempt) in the last 25 years.
Contrary to what GWB has said, I don’t think history is going to look favorably upon him. I consider his presidency a failure of epic proportions.
All the anti-trump people should be down on their hands and knees thanking God for Trump.
bookmark
I’ve got rosacea from how long I’ve been holding my nose. No more.
This seems to me to be a very good summation of the corrupt republican party.
bump.
Sundance is doing great investigative work and confirms the “consultants” on talk shows who are saying “there is not way Trump is going to be the nominee”.
I think Trump knows the game they are playing, when he said “Bush was bought and paid for”
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