Hillary's huge lead over the GOP? Maybe it never existed

The Washington Examiner ^ | June 6, 2015 | Byron York

[E. Pluribus Unum]

Through all of Hillary Clinton's recent troubles — emails, foundation, Benghazi — Democrats have taken comfort in their all-but-assured nominee's formidable lead over top Republicans in head-to-head matchups. Now that lead is shrinking, and the Democratic comfort level is falling along with it.

But it's possible Clinton's big lead was never as big as Democrats thought. Yes, some of the margins looked enormous:

* A CNN poll in March showed Clinton up by 15 points over Republican Jeb Bush, 13 points over Marco Rubio, 11 points over Rand Paul, and 15 points over Scott Walker.

* An ABC News poll in March showed Clinton up by 15 points over Rubio, 14 points over Walker, and 13 points over Bush.

* A CNN poll in April showed Clinton up by 22 points over Walker, 19 points over Paul, 14 points over Rubio, and 17 points over Bush.

Big margins. But at the same time, at least one other poll — by Public Policy Polling, the Democratic polling firm — showed Clinton with much more modest leads over her GOP rivals. A PPP survey in late February showed Clinton with an eight-point lead over Walker, a seven-point lead over Rubio, a seven-point lead over Paul, and a 10-point lead over Bush.

A PPP poll at the end of March showed Clinton with a four-point lead over Walker, a four-point lead over Paul, a three-point lead over Rubio, and a six-point lead over Bush — at a time the other polls showed Clinton far ahead of those rivals.

"I am definitely skeptical that Clinton was ever really up by 15 points like some of the early polls were showing," says PPP director Tom Jensen. The reason for those big leads, Jensen suggested in an email conversation, might have more to do with the other polls' methods rather than any overwhelming Clinton advantage.

We use tighter controls on who we call for our polls than most national surveys do. Although we don't do an actual likely voter screen this far out, we do pull lists based on people who have voted in at least one of the last three elections. So I think we end up with samples that are a little bit more conservative than if we were calling all adults or even just registered voters with no respect to voting history.

If Jensen and PPP are correct, then the core assumption of much political analysis in the last few months was little more than irrational exuberance. Now that Clinton is returning to earth in other polls as well — PPP has a new poll out in about 10 days — the question will be how Democrats react to the realization that there once-inevitable shoo-in president might not be an inevitable shoo-in after all.

[Beowulf9]

Honest to god I just read this as ‘Hillary’s huge head over the GOP’...yeah, that existed.

[Cowboy Bob]

Bill never got a majority of votes. How can anyone expect Hillary! to do any better?

[EternalVigilance]

Tagline ...

[Liz]

THE "INEVITABLE, UNTOUCHABLE" HILLARY
ANOTHER ERIC CANTOR IN THE MAKING The massively-funded Hillary is campaigning, disguised as a "regular" American despite a trail of criminal activities that would make organized crime blush.

STROLL DOWN MEMORY LANE Then-House Majority Leader, Eric Cantor (R-Va), was, himself, considered untouchable and inevitable.

<><> Cantor had tons of money---spent 26X times his opponent's $100K.

<><> Cantor consistently polled an astounding 34 points ahead of his unknown opponent.

<><> Cantor was considered "inevitable" and "untouchable".

<><> Cantor had no ethics problems.

<><> Cantor sucked-up to an anti-tea party group.

<><> Cantor sucked up to the latino vote.

<><> Cantor showboated his leadership---was deeply into (gag) "diversity."

=============================================

BY CONTRAST HIS OPPONENT Brat:

<><> ran as Cantor's TERM LIMIT

<><> Brat roundly opposed, and was vociferous against amnesty,.

<><> Brat ran as a staunch conservative (now in Congress he has a conservative rating 100%.)

<><> On elections day, Brat got 18,000 more Repub out to the polls than the previous election that elected Cantor.

================================================

CANTOR IN DEFEAT----DUMBFOUNDED:

[toddausauras]

No crystal ball here but we all know Hillary is deeply suspect and unpalatable to a lot of people in a lot of states. I think Walker epitomizes hard work, authenticity and appears presidential. Walker, Cruz, Perry. We have youth this time not that assclown McCain.

[TBP]

That lead was a product of Democrat media outlets conducting polls of heavily Democrat samples, with questions framed to favor Democrats.

What result would you expect?

[Don Corleone]

The facts are what I say they are!

Winston Smith

[HarleyLady27]

OMG....and the people will fall for it....

These polling people are drunk with democrat Kool-Aid...they don’t know what day it is, what planet their on, or what they had to eat yesterday....

This is just to funny!!!!!!!!!!

[jocon307]

“We have youth this time not that assclown McCain.”.

Yes, yes we do, and let’s keep it that way!

[luvbach1]

The fact that the Hildebeest was ever up over any Republican candidate is sad testimony of the depths to which the judgement of the voting public has fallen. And this does not mean the announced and/or potential Republican candidates are paragons, but any one of them is leagues better than the lying pantsuit.

[x]

Sure. It’s name recognition. Like with the polls showing Bush and Romney in the lead earlier in the campaign. People see a name they recognize and go with it. There’s no indication of a deeper support than that. Though of course, familiarity does give Hillary a head start(in spite of the things people don’t like about her) that some Republicans might not be able to overcome.

[AEMILIUS PAULUS]

After 2012 election cycle where the conservatives were claiming the polls were rigged and the polls turned out to be correct one would think we would learn. Conservatives seem to forget that a large portion of the American electorate had to have their negro and got one. That same mentally trivial proportion has to have their female and will get one. Hillary will be President and that will be the Coup De Grace of our Republic. She is making great progress with the woman vote and with the majority who want to punish the rich. She will promise to punish the rich and then renege on that promise for those who contributed much to her campaign.

[JimRed]

They lie about everything else; why not about this?

[VideoDoctor]

Lead my butt.

Hitlery is in reality chasing her a$$ but does NOT yet realize it.

[headstamp 2]

She’s phoning it in.

[apocalypto]

Good points!

[JPG]

Honest to god I just read this as ‘Hillary’s huge head over the GOP’...yeah, that existed.

[Wildbill22]

Maybe they were polling all those dead Republicans in Chicago? They seem to vote democrat.

[buckalfa]

"<><> On elections day, Brat got 18,000 more Repub out to the polls than the previous election that elected Cantor. "

You are assuming the GOPe will nominate a conservative. I fear most conservatives will wind up staying home as in the last two cycles.