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2015: Why's the Oil Price Collapsing? Answer: $8+ Trillion Carry Trade
TMO ^ | 1-3-2015 | DK Matai

Posted on 01/03/2015 11:14:15 AM PST by blam

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To: blam; jiggyboy; PA Engineer; TigerLikesRooster; Cheap_Hessian; CJinVA; Jet Jaguar; ...

Goldbug ping.


21 posted on 01/03/2015 11:59:57 AM PST by Jet Jaguar
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To: 9thLife

Russia ?

Really ?

I don’t think so.

How’s that new exchange working out for them and Iran, China et al ?

Oil = life.

Russia, China et al = Death.

Top down death.


22 posted on 01/03/2015 12:01:41 PM PST by Zeneta (Thoughts in time and out of season.)
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To: __rvx86

The Feds are the most indebted entity on the planet.
you think they let that happen?


23 posted on 01/03/2015 12:02:52 PM PST by Kozak ("It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal" Henry Kissinger)
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To: Zeneta

you really need to study up. and it’s not rocket science.


24 posted on 01/03/2015 12:05:05 PM PST by 9thLife (Barack Hussein Obama is one of them.)
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To: blam
"In the last two hundred years, very few cross border lending binges equate in size and scale to this dollar denominated debt colossus fuelled by first world quantitative easing on an unprecedented scale and with near Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP)."

Don't fail to read this sentence.

And anyone who can explain how they can pull this off should feel free to enlighten me. And I do understand that "Quantitative Easing" is simply doing a 24/7 with the Fed's Printing Presses.

How can you expand the money supply like we have and keep interest rates so low? Beats me.

That money is being loaned out. It is adding to purchasing power. It should cause prices to rise. That should cause the investment community to demand higher interest rates. It isn't happening. I'm dumbfounded.

And in the middle of this oil fall to less than half it's peak value. And in a flash.

25 posted on 01/03/2015 12:12:42 PM PST by InterceptPoint (Remember Mississippi)
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To: blam

>> “Wouldn’t that be hateful?” <<

.
To the average democrat, God is a hate criminal.

.


26 posted on 01/03/2015 12:13:13 PM PST by editor-surveyor (Freepers: Not as smart as I'd hoped they'd be)
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To: 9thLife

you really need to study up. and it’s not rocket science.


Actually, it’s worse than rocket science. Rocket science is defined by the ironclad laws of physics. Not so for Modern Economics. Unlike the Classical Economics you learn about in textbooks, Modern Economics is also heavily influenced by psychology, perception, and politics. Also, economies do not exist in a vacuum—they are all intertwined. Which is why doing stupid things is not necessarily an immediate death sentence, especially if you have reserve currency status and are considered to be the world’s “safe haven”.

As the Federal Reserve has shown, you can game the System to keep it afloat. Buying your own debt with $$ created out of thin air is one trick they use. Which is why I’m surprised the USD hasn’t crashed yet.

In the investing world, some of the smartest guys in the room continually get burned.


27 posted on 01/03/2015 12:17:28 PM PST by rbg81
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To: blam

Gold has been bouncing off of a strong foundation of support for several months.

Buying kicks in at around 1180+ and continues to around 1220 or so.


28 posted on 01/03/2015 12:17:31 PM PST by editor-surveyor (Freepers: Not as smart as I'd hoped they'd be)
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To: 9thLife

Do you really think trading oil in a different currency would make a difference on the price ?

It’s all relative my FRiend.

What you get and what you can buy is all relative.

Oil is fungible.

We have Central Bankers around the world trying to control things that they ultimately have no control over. We have oil producers trying to make a living and Government oil producers trying to protect their turf. US oil companies are on a singular mission, they don’t give two S88ts about politics unless it affects their profits.

Oil is life. Oil is the life blood of every economy.

Any attempt to artificially manipulate prices will only be temporary.


29 posted on 01/03/2015 12:24:18 PM PST by Zeneta (Thoughts in time and out of season.)
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To: laplata

ping


30 posted on 01/03/2015 12:33:48 PM PST by laplata ( Liberals/Progressives have diseased minds.)
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To: rbg81

Are they waiting for a republican president?


31 posted on 01/03/2015 12:38:45 PM PST by huldah1776
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To: blam

I have a question. If the value of the dollar going up is a driving reason for the price of oil going down, why does the lower price per barrel of oil affect drilling and exploration and production? When the companies get more bang for the buck, they should be able to get the same bang for fewer bucks.


32 posted on 01/03/2015 12:40:07 PM PST by pallis
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To: pallis

The price of oil is simply a reflection of how much oil is up for sale on the market.

The question that needs to be asked to understand all of this is why there continues to be a glut of oil on the market.

The answer to that question is that the Saudis are attempting to do two things by keeping their production at max.

First is to make fracking unprofitable, and second is to reduce the wealth flowing into the coffers of Iran.

.


33 posted on 01/03/2015 1:02:57 PM PST by editor-surveyor (Freepers: Not as smart as I'd hoped they'd be)
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To: Revel

you are aware that ‘savers’ don’t typically put their money in banks... right?

if the bank pays 0% interest and you don’t want to play the markets, you’d look to hard assets like gold or silver.

if the dollar collapses, then you convert your assets into the new local monetary instrument.

those assets could be gold, silver, microsoft stock, real estate, bullets or baby formula.


34 posted on 01/03/2015 1:05:44 PM PST by sten (fighting tyranny never goes out of style)
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To: Zeneta

You’ll figure it out.


35 posted on 01/03/2015 1:14:58 PM PST by 9thLife (Barack Hussein Obama is one of them.)
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To: InterceptPoint
How can you expand the money supply like we have and keep interest rates so low? Beats me. That money is being loaned out. It is adding to purchasing power. It should cause prices to rise. That should cause the investment community to demand higher interest rates. It isn't happening. I'm dumbfounded.

Given the general state of world economies, which would be moribund at best with a few occasional bright spots, in light of this, what do you suppose the state of those same world economies would be, absent dollar-denominated quantitative easing and near-zero interest rate policy? That tells the tale. Pulled out all the stops to maintain some semblance of normalcy and have succeeded by most measures, but deflation still looms large in the fears of all central bankers.

Certain well-placed individuals are getting wildly wealthy, the broader economy maintains at least an outward appearance of stability. They'll continue on with this for far longer than you'd think. I've been expecting it to come undone for years now. It hasn't. Get rid of debt, secure your future under a variety of possible negative scenarios. Look for opportunities to diversify away from being dependent upon dollars, the dollar is at a multi-decade high, it'll buy a lot more than it did even two years ago.

Think long and hard about any move you make though, you can certainly lose your proverbial backside.

36 posted on 01/03/2015 1:18:04 PM PST by RegulatorCountry
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To: rbg81

Great post!


37 posted on 01/03/2015 1:19:06 PM PST by nascarnation (....)
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To: blam

Savers will not be the beneficiaries.
These are the last throes of all currencies.
When the other shoe falls, and at some point it will; debt will basically be wiped out.

Read the book, “When Money Dies” to see how it went down in Weimar Germany.

We face a similar situation today.


38 posted on 01/03/2015 1:21:42 PM PST by Bon mots (American Exceptionalism becomes American Acceptionalism under this regime... :()
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To: Bon mots
When the other shoe falls, and at some point it will; debt will basically be wiped out.

It wouldn't be wise to think that debt will be wiped out on residences and farmland, though. It'll survive any financial conflagration like cockroaches through a nuclear war, imho.

39 posted on 01/03/2015 1:26:38 PM PST by RegulatorCountry
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To: RegulatorCountry
Not wiped out in the sense you think, but rather through the eventual hyperinflation that will sooner or later swamp the economy.

Read this fascinating book. Here you can still get it for free, grab it quick before it disappears. It is being put back into print.

When Money Dies ← Read it free in PDF here

Or buy it on Amazon...


40 posted on 01/03/2015 1:39:07 PM PST by Bon mots (American Exceptionalism becomes American Acceptionalism under this regime... :()
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