Posted on 08/27/2013 1:55:57 PM PDT by nathanbedford
What are our chances of restoring the Constitution through Article V?
Since we conservatives do not have the services of Nate Silver at our disposal we are left to our own devices to handicap the participation of states in any Article V convention. Here is my humble offering.
Statescape reports that houses of the legislatures in the following states are controlled by Republicans:
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
Florida
Georgia
Idaho
Indiana
Kansas
Louisiana
Michigan
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Wisconsin
Wyoming
In addition to these 26 states we might add Nebraska as number 27 with its unicameral legislature and its technically nonpartisan legislature but one which is regarded to be Republican.
To get a convention we need 34 states and that means that we must find 7 so we turn to the states with mixed legislatures and make judgments about whether they might vote for a constitutional convention:
Iowa 53 Reps/47 Dems 26 Dems/24 Reps
Kentucky 55 Dems/45 Reps 23 Reps/14 Dems
New Hampshire 218 Dems/179 Reps 13 Reps/11 Dems
New York 104 Dems/43 Reps 31 Reps/26 Dems
Virginia 66 Reps/32 Dems 20 Dems/20 Reps
Of these five states my guess is that 1 (Virginia) can be had; 3 (Iowa, Kentucky and New Hampshire) are reasonable possibilities; and one, New York, is beyond reach. Let us arbitrarily assume that we could pick up 4 of these 5 states with divided legislatures bringing our total to 30 out of the 34 required to trigger a convention to propose amendments.
The following 14 states' legislatures are controlled entirely by Democrats:
Hawaii
Illinois
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Nevada
New Jersey
New Mexico
Oregon
Rhode Island
Vermont
Washington
West Virginia
Even a superficial scan of this list reveals that that it will be daunting indeed to find 4 of these 14 Democrat states to vote to dismantle a superstructure which keeps them in power. While we are on offense collecting potential states for our side let us not overlook the fact that the 30 Republican states we are putting on our side of the ledger represent 59 legislatures and the loss of only one of the 59 means the loss of the whole game. So we must also play defense to protect those 59 votes. The left will be looking for a few strategically placed but venal legislators whom they can suborn and flip. They will have a target rich environment of hundreds and hundreds of legislators with skeletons in closets, mortgages to pay, mistresses to mollify, drug, alcohol, and gambling habits to supply.
Thirty states in the conservative camp, or at least sympathetic to the conservative cause, represent a formidable bulwark against any possible runaway convention and certainly offer a nearly impossible obstacle to the ratification by 38 states of any proposed amendments which are repugnant to conservatives. Those who fear such a runaway convention should be comforted by this arithmetic.
Let's continue on offense to see if we can find some Democrat states that might conceivably be brought to Jesus.
West Virginia: the Democrats hold relatively sizable majorities in both houses but this is a state in transition, one that is been damaged by Obama's energy policies and one of stubborn, rural, independent yeomanry. I believe the idea of restoring constitutional government and the idea of an Article V convention would appeal to many West Virginians.
Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada: these three mountain states have slipped away from Republican states in national elections recently. Much of that has to do with the Hispanic vote, of which more later, but there is still a possibility that these rural, mountainous regions still have some sturdy independents among them.
Maine, Minnesota, Oregon, Washington, Delaware: These states, as well is the three mountain states listed in the next preceding paragraph, all have one characteristic in common, they have relatively small African-American populations. Thus Nathan Bedford's first Maxim of American politics, all politics is not local but ultimately racial, is diminished in impact. That means that the impregnable base of the leftist coalition, African-Americans, which dominates states like New York, New Jersey, Illinois, etc. are not available to the Democrats in the same predominating proportions in these states. There is a different dynamic in Democrat-controlled Oregon as distinguished from Democrat-controlled New Jersey. Are yuppie, educated, environmentally conscious, good government voting Democrats of Oregon and Washington open to an appeal which says this is the last chance to maintain representative government in America? I leave these imponderables to the reader to judge.
If one uses today's newspaper headlines as the final context in which to go hunting for 34 states to apply for a convention (never mind finding 38 states to ratify), the movement will fall short. However, we must believe that it would only take one headline to change the context and change the zeitgeist overnight which might cause a quorum of the states to gather. In our history we have had flashpoints which have changed entirely the mood of the nation. The Boston massacre, Lexington and Concorde,Thomas Paine's The American Crisis ("these are the times that try men's souls…"), Louisa May Alcott's Uncle Tom's Cabin, John Brown's raid, firing on Fort Sumter, "remember the Maine," the XYZ telegram, the sinking of the Lusitania, Pearl Harbor, Churchill's Iron Curtain speech, the Cuban missile crisis, the assassination of John F. Kennedy, the civil rights movement, the women's rights movement, the homosexual rights movement, the election of Ronald Reagan, the fall of the Berlin wall, the stock market crash of 1929, the Great Recession of 2008, 9/11, the overreach of Barack Obama, these are but a very few of many events in American history which have entirely changed the course of that history, usually in ways that could not have been anticipated. Of one thing we can be very sure, the next black swan event cannot be far off. My bet is that yuppie voters in places like Oregon and Washington might just react to the proper stimulus.
We are advocating a convention to propose amendments according to the constitutional provisions laid down in Article V because we believe two very important realities: First, the American way of governance has become threateningly unmoored from the Constitution and the power elite in Washington who profit from the present situation are both unwilling and incapable of reforming themselves and restoring America to its constitutional inheritance. The state of affairs is believed to amount to incipient tyranny which is destined inevitably to become a very oppressive, hard tyranny. Second, if the Republic proceeds along its present course it will encounter disaster. The belief is that the Republic is hurtling toward a fiscal cliff which might hurl America into a very hard tyranny with the inevitable consequence of generations of poverty, tyranny and misery. Our society is disintegrating along racial and economic lines and racial violence is increasing to the point where civil disruption is not inconceivable. The current administration has turned its own institutions against its political enemies and is spying to one level of intrusion or another on every living American. Why, how malignant is the motivation behind this? It has identified people who would support the Article V movement to be dangerous radicals consumed by "hate" requiring surveillance. The Republic remains vulnerable to a catastrophic terrorist attack. Our relations with thermonuclear equipped Russia and China, already the world's number two economy and destined to supersede us, have deteriorated to something reminiscent of the situation between Japan and the United States in the early 1930s. As Obama squanders our respect around the world emerging powers in Asia might just stumble into a war because Obama causes them to miscalculate. Murderous, psychotic, conspiratorialist, jihadist Islam has succeeded in creating the outline of a caliphate running from Pakistan's border with China all the way to the Atlantic shores of North Africa and have set much of that world ablaze. A terror strike at the homeland is certainly possible. Any one of these situations and many more which by definition we cannot identify could loose the Black Swan which changes everything.
Let me indulge Nathan Bedford one more time and cite his second Maxim: Failed socialism is rarely reformed rather it is reinforced with more socialism. The left has long recognized this reality and has expressed it, "never let a crisis go to waste." We conservatives have let crisis after crisis go to waste. Like the campaign to defund Obamacare, it comes down to conservatives making a compelling case or losing the public relations war as well is the election. Concededly, it is difficult for conservatives to sell a package which says, eat your spinach, go on a diet, exercise, and vote Republican when the other side is offering sex, drugs, and rock 'n roll. Nevertheless the battle must be waged and won even in the teeth of a treacherous media who points to Miley Cyrus while the federal government freezes the federal debt level for 100 days and counting-or not counting.
The arithmetic is daunting, the playing field is clearly not level, the path is treacherous, the stakes are infinite, but there seems right now to be no practical alternative to supporting the Article V movement to restore America to its Constitution. Let just one Swan turn black and we might just get not only 34 but even 38 states.
Luck comes to those who make ready.
14 controlled by dems
Should you add calif?
Did I miss Cal?
Any Others?
I believe it can be done. It won’t happen overnight and it will take alot of work. We all have to do what we can to further the project. Buy the book, hand it out to like minded people. Talk to everyone you know about it. Point them to Mark Levin’s radio show. I have learned more from Mark Levin than I learned in four year of college. If everyone in Mark Levin’s audience does their part to promote the project, our state legislators will have to listen to their constituents or face losing their seats. It took the liberals 100 years to turn our country into a marxist state. I say we stand and fight for another 100 years if need be. Let’s go Paul and Paulette Revere’s.
http://www.statescape.com/resources/partysplits/partysplits.aspx
Not up to Levin..it is up to us and your post will help!!
Let’s roll!!
The state legislator needs money to keep his seat, and to maybe someday make a run for the US Congress. The little folks just don’t have that kind of money.
So why should any state legislator want to upset the applecart?
I agree. Levin’s proposal will take a lot of effort - years of effort, with bumps in the road. The only other options at this point, in my opinion, are fully robust tyranny or civil war. I would include state secession, but that’s been tried with catastrophic results. For a while I’ve thought about some of the several states trying to secede basing their rationale on the idea that they signed up for a Constitutional republic with a limited federal government, and the lack of that at a federal level has nullified the original contract, but I can’t see the federal government simply rolling over and letting that happen. In fact, I could even see an Article 5 convention and the subsequent amendments leading to tyranny (by quashing the effort) or civil war (from those who seek to hold their power).
However, you’re right. This is the only reasonable and peaceful option in front of us. God help us.
In a perfect world, maybe. In this one, zero chance.
The following 14 states’ legislatures are controlled entirely by Democrats:
________________________________
Why isn’t California on the list?
Convention of States: A Handbook for Legislators and Citizens
A Summary of Mark Levin’s Proposed Amendments
Toward an Article V Amendment Convention
Mark Levin: A Modern Day Constitutional Prophet
Tom Coburn Calls for a National Constitutional Convention
How to Make Mark Levin’s Vision of Constitutional Reform a Reality
Some Thoughts on the Mechanics of the Article V Movement
A Constitutional Cure for What Ails Us
Don’t Expect Reform from Washington
I also have two reference works.
The first is from the American Legislative Exchange Council, a conservative pro-business group. That makes me believe they just might be the good guys. I like the conclusions to which the author arrived. This document has been sent to every state legislator in the country.
Proposing Constitutional Amendments by a Convention of the States: A Handbook for State Lawmakers
The second is a 1973 report from the American Bar Association attempting to identify gray areas in the amendatory process to include an Amendments Convention. It represents the view of the ruling class of 40 years ago. I don't like some of their conclusions, but they have laid out the precedents that may justify those conclusions. What I respect is the comprehensive job they did in locating all the gray areas. They even identified a gray area that didn't pop up until the Equal Rights Amendment crashed and burned a decade later. Even if you find yourself in disagreement with their vision, it's worth a read to see how the ruling class will try to take over and run an Amendments Convention.
Report of the ABA Special Constitutional Convention Study Committee
Yes. Congressional term limits can pass immediately.
That will get the ball rolling, and force the media to cover the movement.
The coverage will be negative, but it will propel the social media dialogue.
For once, Republicans won’t be reactive, but proactive, framing the public policy debate.
After such a hard fall, people will start asking questions as to how these things could have happened. Somewhere along the line, the states will use the Article V mechanism to rein in the federal leviathan.
The challenge is before us. We’ve faced greater. If we all start in our corner of the world, maybe we can bring this about.
I’m cheering Levin on, believe me. I’m just not optimistic.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.