Nate Silver: GOP Closer to Taking Senate Control in 2014

NewsMax ^ | 07/16/2013 | Lisa Baron

[SeekAndFind]

Republicans might be close to winning control of the Senate after next year's elections, according to New York Times statistician Nate Silver.

Writing in his "FiveThirtyEight" blog on Monday, Silver said this weekend's announcement by former Montana Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer that he would not run for the Senate "represents the latest in a series of favorable developments for Republicans as they seek control of the chamber."

The GOP, which holds 46 seats in the Senate, likely will lose New Jersey's special election in October to replace the late Sen. Frank Lautenberg, according to Silver. The loss will leave Republicans with 45 seats, meaning they will need six more to control 51 seats and overcome Vice President Joe Biden's tiebreaking vote.

But, Silver stressed, Montana — along with West Virginia and South Dakota, two other red states where an incumbent Democrat has retired and the party has not identified a strong candidate to replace them — "gives Republicans a running start."

"Republicans could then win three more seats from among red states like Louisiana and Arkansas, where vulnerable Democratic incumbents are on the ballot, or they could take aim at two purple states, Iowa and Michigan, where Democrats have retired," Silver said.

He said more opportunities could arise if the political environment becomes more favorable to Republicans, perhaps "because of a further slide in Mr. Obama's approval ratings."

Meanwhile, he noted, "Republicans have few seats of their own to defend," even though seats in Kentucky and Georgia might be vulnerable.

"Unlike in 2012, they can focus almost entirely on playing offense," he said.

Silver concluded that the "best guess, after assigning probabilities of the likelihood of a GOP pickup in each state, is that Republicans will end up with somewhere between 50 and 51 Senate seats

[0.E.O]

Love him or hate him, Nate Silver was the MOST ACCURATE forecaster of the 2012 elections.

Unfortunately not even Silver can predict a Mourdock or an Akin. A pick up of seats in a virtual certainty but control of the senate is not.

[ncalburt]

Commie sliver is a Obama bot and nothing more.

Go troll for the left somewhere else.

[ncalburt]

He is the truth about Obama Dem party shrill
Left wing radical - former Daiy Koz scam pollster

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journalism/2012/10/09/nate-Silver-Jumps-Shark-No-one-Cares

So why do you defend this Daily Koz alum here again ??