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Climate slowdown means extreme rates of warming 'not as likely'
BBC News ^ | 19 May 2013 | Matt McGrath

Posted on 05/19/2013 5:25:54 PM PDT by presidio9

Since 1998, there has been an unexplained "standstill" in the heating of the Earth's atmosphere.

Writing in Nature Geoscience, the researchers say this will reduce predicted warming in the coming decades.

But long-term, the expected temperature rises will not alter significantly.

The slowdown in the expected rate of global warming has been studied for several years now. Earlier this year, the UK Met Office lowered their five-year temperature forecast.

But this new paper gives the clearest picture yet of how any slowdown is likely to affect temperatures in both the short-term and long-term.

An international team of researchers looked at how the last decade would impact long-term, equilibrium climate sensitivity and the shorter term climate response.

Transient nature

Climate sensitivity looks to see what would happen if we doubled concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere and let the Earth's oceans and ice sheets respond to it over several thousand years.

Transient climate response is much shorter term calculation again based on a doubling of CO2.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported in 2007 that the short-term temperature rise would most likely be 1-3C (1.8-5.4F).

But in this new analysis,

(Excerpt) Read more at bbc.co.uk ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Front Page News; United Kingdom
KEYWORDS: climatechange; clowncarmedia; globalcooling; globalflipacoin; globalwarming; globalwarmingtheory; globalwhatever; junkscience; manbearpig; pagingalgore; settleddebates
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To: presidio9

[[Climate slowdown means extreme rates of warming ‘not as likely’]]

In other words, the climate is following 1000’s of years worth of cyclical warmign and cooling trends- gee- whoda thunk it?

But once again we see ‘climatologists’ ‘predicting’ a new direction when the wind changes direction and claimign they were right all along - no matter which way the wind blows, these Hindsight ‘scientists’ are covered- it’s all man’s fault-


41 posted on 05/19/2013 9:14:46 PM PDT by CottShop (Scientific belief does not constitute scientific evidence, nor does it convey scientific knowledge)
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To: aquila48

“How exactly does the climate slowdown?”

It must be like a bad cartridge. The trigger is pulled, but it hasn’t gone bang yet.
Does it fire? Does it eventually fire, but only go an inch down the barrel?
Or does it never fire, and you just throw it away?


42 posted on 05/19/2013 9:23:03 PM PDT by VanShuyten ("a shadow...draped nobly in the folds of a gorgeous eloquence.")
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To: presidio9; mickie
Global change, global warming, global cooling, globaloney.

Leni

43 posted on 05/19/2013 9:27:09 PM PDT by MinuteGal
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To: mosesdapoet

” It would be interesting to see if there was a message of record (email or other directive) that came from on high to push this and I bet there was. But the fun would be to expose it.”

I don’t think they need to send messages from on high - they do something even more effective (from their point of view) - they put true believer as announcers and let them do their things. Similar to terrorist cells.


44 posted on 05/19/2013 9:36:44 PM PDT by aquila48
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To: presidio9

We must be getting close to “Global Cooling” caused by road dust and garden tools.


45 posted on 05/19/2013 11:15:38 PM PDT by clearcarbon
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To: presidio9

Turns out that data was very, very, very wrong. US emissions (which make up 90% of N Am pop) are now down to the lowest levels since 1993.


46 posted on 05/20/2013 1:09:46 AM PDT by dangus (Poverty cannot be eradicated as long as the poor remain dependent on the state - Pope Francis)
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To: presidio9

I am sure the media and schools will col it with their propaganda....

not


47 posted on 05/20/2013 1:14:15 AM PDT by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
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To: presidio9

That’s incorrect. Based on the NASA report, CO2 plays a much more important part in preventing the Sun from raising temperatures on Earth than previously known The other question is given the greater percentage and effectiveness of water as a so-called greenhouse gas, why have the scammers focused on a relatively insignificant gas, CO2. The answer to that is obvious. CO2 was looked upon as the next best thing for diverting money from the private sector to government. Fortunately the research continued and CO2 has been proven not to be the fearsome planet changing boogey man as was widely promoted.


48 posted on 05/20/2013 4:45:10 AM PDT by meatloaf (Support Senate S 1863 & House Bill 1380 to eliminate oil slavery.)
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To: spokeshave

The slowdown in solar activity kicked in around 2007-8. It is still too early to see much effect from this. As usual there is thermal inertia from the ocean, remaining ocean warmth from the high solar period (up to the 90’s) has been delaying the impact of lower solar activity.


49 posted on 05/20/2013 7:47:35 AM PDT by palmer (Obama = Carter + affirmative action)
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To: meatloaf
Based on the NASA report, CO2 plays a much more important part in preventing the Sun from raising temperatures on Earth than previously known The other question is given the greater percentage and effectiveness of water as a so-called greenhouse gas

Do you have a link for the NASA report? The focus on CO2 made the models simpler. Considering that they don't model weather, it's hard for them to judge the effects of solar and terrestrial factors on climate. Specifically, if water vapor is evenly distributed (fewer storms and/or weaker storms, stronger polar jet, less meridional flow, etc) then there will be global warming. Conversely having more and stronger storms (worldwide), weak jet with blocking (e.g. causing heat waves or flooding) produces global cooling. None of that can be modeled without modeling the small scale convective processes, and the climate models do not do that (even weather models suck at that). Thus they basically do a large scale energy balance model so things like CO2 get undo emphasis and water vapor is ignored (i.e. they keep constant RH without any justification).

50 posted on 05/20/2013 7:56:25 AM PDT by palmer (Obama = Carter + affirmative action)
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To: aquila48

Don’t buy that premise. Someway somehow however seemimgly innocuous there’s a talking point outline and NPR is on message in every show. In the case of globull warming worming its way into every NPR production, comedy, music, “news”, pets,health, you name it the threads are there.


51 posted on 05/20/2013 8:18:43 AM PDT by mosesdapoet (Serious contribution pause.Please continue onto meaningless venting no one reads.)
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To: palmer

The recent NASA report was based on an analysis of satellite data. It showed up about a month ago and then seemed to get deep sixed since it was obviously fatal to the “CO2 as sure death argument” mongers. I’ll look for it later.


52 posted on 05/20/2013 9:09:34 AM PDT by meatloaf (Support Senate S 1863 & House Bill 1380 to eliminate oil slavery.)
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To: Parley Baer
It sure is a mystery.

The slight warming detected from the 1970s until 1998 was proof positive of man made global warming, even though the same slight increase was detected in Mars, Neptune, Triton and Pluto.

The sun cycles couldn't have anything to do with climate change.

53 posted on 05/20/2013 11:46:43 AM PDT by Bubba_Leroy (The Obamanation Continues)
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To: Eleutheria5
Next we’ll be heading for an ice age again. So retro-70s.

That is why Global Climate Change™ is so much better than Global Cooling or Global Warming ever were.

Is it warmer today than average? It is because of Global Climate Change.™

Is it cooler today than average? It is because of Global Climate Change.™

Is it wetter, dryer, windier, less windy? It doesn't matter! Whatever the weather happens to be, it is because of Global Climate Change.™

Of course, it is all Bush's fault. Bush and those damned SUVs. Womyn and minorities will be hardest hit. The only solution is to tax and spend more.

54 posted on 05/20/2013 11:53:42 AM PDT by Bubba_Leroy (The Obamanation Continues)
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To: meatloaf
That’s incorrect. Based on the NASA report, CO2 plays a much more important part in preventing the Sun from raising temperatures on Earth than previously known

Not exactly sure what report you're talking about, but it was my understanding that CO2's role in climate regulation had to do with its ability to absorb infrared radiation reflected back from the surface that had previously been heated up by the sun, not by relecting anything itself per se. CO2 is transparent.

In any case, the finding you are referring to really doesn't pertain to the conversation we were having.

CO2 is absolutely necessary to protect the Earth by reflecting most of the Sun’s energy back into space

"More important" does not translate into "most."

55 posted on 05/20/2013 12:23:38 PM PDT by presidio9 (Islam is as Islam does.)
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To: presidio9

It’s been shown that 1. CO2 is not the threat claimed by those confusing CO2 with true pollutants and 2. CO2 is much more beneficial to life on Earth than previously known.

The global warming/change scare mongering took a fatal hit.


56 posted on 05/20/2013 12:29:08 PM PDT by meatloaf (Support Senate S 1863 & House Bill 1380 to eliminate oil slavery.)
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To: meatloaf

No argument there. And, as anyone who has lived in an arid climate can tell you, “greenhouse gases” are actually essential to life on earth. They keep things from freezing when the lights go out at night, a la the dark side of Mercury, which is actually one of the coldest places in the solar system. I learned this first hand when I moved to Tucson and lived in the foothills. The temperature could be in the 90’s in the afternoon and I could find myself scraping ice off my car the next morning on my way to work.


57 posted on 05/20/2013 12:38:20 PM PDT by presidio9 (Islam is as Islam does.)
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To: presidio9; 11B40; A Balrog of Morgoth; A message; ACelt; Aeronaut; AFPhys; AlexW; alrea; ...
DOOMAGE!

Global Warming PING!

You have been pinged because of your interest in environmentalism, alarmist wackos, mainstream media doomsday hype, and other issues pertaining to global warming.

Freep-mail me to get on or off: Add me / Remove me

Please ping me to all note-worthy threads on global warming.

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58 posted on 05/20/2013 1:05:31 PM PDT by Tolerance Sucks Rocks (Drag Me From Hell!)
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To: Bubba_Leroy

Now that’s the climate trend of the teens! Whatever is going to happen, there’s proof it is happening, and requires lots of money to fix, or else we’re all doomed to something or other happening. Change you can believe in (facts? we don’t need no stinking facts!).


59 posted on 05/20/2013 5:10:52 PM PDT by Eleutheria5 (End the occupation. Annex today.)
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